SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 24, 2016…12:10 P.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward.  Given that winter weather can be vastly expansive, time does not allow for me to go very in depth into items such as detailing the forecast for various areas, or exact calculations for snowfall, to when a mix might begin or end (etc.), as compared to severe weather projections and hurricane forecasts.  The winter weather discussion is meant to give the viewer a general idea as to what to expect during the forecast times mentioned.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings map will allow you to view up to date forecast discussions for your area, or the area you are interested in.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO SPC TEXT)

Based on information contained in the SPC outlook text, strong surface cyclogenesis will occur over the risk area, mainly in the warm sector (the area in between the warm front and cold front) due to the associated deep cyclone, and mid level jet max, creating intense DCVA (Differential Cyclonic Vorticity Advection…[Fancy term for twisting in the atmosphere with height]).  The SLIGHT risk area will be under a mid level jet max of around 120 kts, along with a 250 mb jet streak of near 110 kts.  Based on analysis of the outlook, and current forecast soundings using F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software using both the GFS and NAM-WRF modeling, forecast soundings appeared somewhat inconclusive, and suggest shallow thunderstorm activity.  Severe parameters did not indicate any tornadic threat, or hail threat at this time, due to very minimal buoyancy, and lack of any Lifted Indices.  Current SBCAPE values were limited to 200 j/kg at best.  Given the projected strong DCVA and shear, the main concern appears to be damaging wind and thunderstorm gusts with any storms that may become strong.  At the moment, wind may be the main concern, given the indication of a capping environment in the upper atmosphere, and poor mid level lapse rates, which would limit thunderstorm development.

INTELLICAST SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE MAP FORECAST

500 MB / 250 MB MAPS INDICATING JET STREAK MAXIMUMS

Of course, as time goes out further in the forecast, conditions could change…so I will be doing another analysis sometime to morrow and will try to issue another update.  Currently, timing of the weather onset appears to be early to late afternoon tomorrow.

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER