SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 21, 2016…2:55 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward.  Given that winter weather can be vastly expansive, time does not allow for me to go very in depth into items such as detailing the forecast for various areas, or exact calculations for snowfall to when a mix might begin or end (etc.), as compared to severe weather projections and hurricane forecasts.  The winter weather discussion is meant to give the viewer a general idea with what to expect during the forecast times mentioned.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings map will allow you to view up to date forecast discussions for your area, or the area you are interested in.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a 15% probability of severe weather occurring over much of OK., and a portion of extreme southern KS. for Sunday.

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITY
day5prob

Based on analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, using the GFS model, forecast sounding data was somewhat inconclusive, in that somewhat weak parameters were in the forecast.  SBCAPE was limited at 200 j/kg, and the Lifted Index at best ranged from 0 to -2.  The soundings did indicted 6 km deep layer shear values over the probability area to be around 90-100 knots.  The 250 mb forecast map indicated the region will be under a strong upper level jet max which may aid in lift and shear.  It was noted, that more of the stronger parameters were further north, over KS.  On another note, higher CAPE and Lifted Index values were strongest over TX in the period.  I will look at things again on Sunday, as forecast sounding data should be more accurate.

GFS 250 MB JETSTREAM MAP FORECAST
gfs250mb

Next, a breif winter weather discussion.  Based on analysis of the global models, a strong winter storm looks to be in the making for Christmas Day (Sunday), through Tues, Dec. 26.  This system will originate from a low that develops from the Pacific NW, along the Oregon coast, but consolidates to a second low over NV.  The system is forecast to move mostly eastward, to ENE until mid to late Sunday morning, before turning NNE and moving the center over the extreme eastern portions of North and South Dakota by Sunday evening. As this occurs, the low will deepen, to around 985-980 mb.  Snow should begin in North Dakota late Saturday evening.  As this low deepens, and moves closer to the Dakotas, expect snowfall to become heavier over the Dakotas, with the possibility of blizzard conditions over central and western portions of the Dakotas, with sustained winds possibly reaching 30-35 mph, and heavy snowfall reaching into MN.  Residents of these states, and the Upper Midwest should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and their local NWS office for up to date information regarding this winter storm.  Please note, a shift in track either way, could mean different impacts for this region.

GFS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS MAP 114 HOURS (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
gfs_namer_114_1000_500_thick

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTgfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus_21

ECMWF 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
ecmwf_tsnow_conus_21

CMC 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
cmc_snow_acc_conus_21

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)
us

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE FORECAST
freeze1

Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/satellite-radar-page/

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 21, 2016…2:55 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you Storm and everyone on Storms Blog!

  2. Mac says:

    Another Christmas day BBQing our standing rib roast in short sleeves and shorts down here in SE Louisiana! But, we can play golf nearly all year long :-).

    Merry Christmas to all!

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. And in contrast, we are supposed to be in the mid-70s for Christmas here in Southeast Louisiana. Two nights ago were hovering at freezing.

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