Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Winter weather discussions only cover from the central U.S., and eastward. Given that winter weather can be vastly expansive, time does not allow for me to go very in depth into items such as detailing the forecast for various areas, or exact calculations for snowfall, to when a mix might begin or end (etc.), as compared to severe weather projections and hurricane forecasts. The winter weather discussion is meant to give the viewer a general idea as to what to expect during the forecast times mentioned. The NWS Hazard and Warnings map will allow you to view up to date forecast discussions for your area, or the area you are interested in.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL KS…
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN NE…EASTERN KS…NORTHERN OK…
Analysis of information contained in the SPC outlook, and graphics from F5 DATA Severe Weather Forecast software, indicate the main threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds and gusts. Based on analysis of F5 DATA GFS, NAM, and RAP models, forecast soundings did not indicate too much instability, or lift, pretty much negating a hail event. Various forecast sounding parameters indicated a probability for the development of supercells over the risk area today, with stronger cells having the potential for some isolated tornadoes. Any tornadoes that may occur should be within the tornado probability area shown on the above SPC tornado probability map. Analysis of the current run of the NAM and RAP indicate two slightly varying solutions, and the probability for isolated tornadoes within the circled areas cannot be ruled out.
Analysis of the NAM-WRF Mesoscale model shows the SLIGHT risk area will be under a powerful 500 mb jet streak maximum, with strong vorticity, along with a strong upper level jetstreak. This will aid in deep layer shear, thus lending the probability for supercell development. Modeling suggests this activity will be the greatest from early afternoon to very late afternoon over the risk area.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements throughout the day.
The NWS Hazards and Warning map is linked, and will provide you real time, up to date information by clicking on your area or area of interest.
Please visit the following link for radar and satellite loop images:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS