SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED DEC. 01, 2016…1:05 P.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Yesterday marked the last day of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The season, as predicted, was above normal (or average).  Based on the shorter, long term average from 1981 until present, a “normal” season will produce 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.  The longer term average is slated at 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes from 1851 until present.  The following are the final totals from the 2016 hurricane season, along with my projections for the season:

2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:

TOTAL STORMS: 15
HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
U.S.LANDFALLS: 5

StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
HURRICANES: 6-7
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4

The season saw a total of 5 U.S. landfalls.  I look forward once again, to the start of the 2017 hurricane season, hopefully providing you the most accurate forecasts as I can.  My tropical forecasts will resume OOA May 15, 2017, or unless warranted earlier.

With that said, focus will be shifted to mainly severe weather risks, and/or coastal storms, with a winter weather discussion in the mix, save any severe outbreaks or severe weather that would take priority.  Now, winter weather is not exactly my forte’, as I have focused the majority of my meteorological studies and research into hurricane and severe weather forecasting, so my accuracy regarding winter weather may be somewhat lower.

With that said, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a 15% probability for severe weather on Monday, Dec. 05, pretty much over the same region that just experienced a bout of severe weather from LA to AL.

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
day5prob

Based on analysis of forecast soundings from the GFS, via F5 DATA Severe Weather forecast software, the forecast soundings were pretty much inconclusive as to the extent of probable severe potential.  I base this on the fairly low CAPE values, and minimal lifted index values, which do not coincide with the SPC text report, regarding the day 5 probability.  The following is the closing paragraph regarding day 5:

HOWEVER…GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS… A MODESTLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER…HAVE OPTED TO OUTLINE A FOCUSED 15 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR MONDAY WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RISK AREA AND PROBABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

I hope to be available to issue a synopsis on this, come Monday.

Elsewhere, a winter storm currently in progress is bringing the threat of heavy snow, freezing rain, and gusty winds to Maine.  A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Maine and parts of the Northern Rockies.

Based on analysis of the 1000-500 mb thickness forecast maps from the GFS out to 5 days, the winter system currently mentioned should begin to clear out from Maine, in approximately the next 12-18 hours, with lighter snow/wintry precipitation remaining over portions of the NE and New England area.  The majority of this lighter precipitation should be concentrated over the Great Lakes region, which should begin to subside within the next 48 hours.

By late Sunday morning, it looks as if more light snow begins over WI., the northern half of IL., and a portion of IN.  This is forecast to progress eastward into the Great Lakes region, and portions of PA. and NY State by Monday.

GFS 1000-500 MB FORECAST MAPS
gfs_namer_021_1000_500_thick
gfs_namer_076_1000_500_thick

GFS 5 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTgfs_tot_snow_conus_21

ECMWF 5 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
ecmwf_tsnow_east3_21

During the next 5 days, there doesn’t appear to be much fluctuation in minimum temperatures across the U.S.  However, by approximately day 7 in the period, from 12Z this morning, much colder air begins to spread south and east over much of the CONUS, with freezing temperatures extending fairly far south, with temperatures fluctuating until around day 12-14, when cold air is once again forecast to plunge south.

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DAYS 7 AND 12
gfs-min
gfs-min-2

The following maps for winter weather are linked.  Please use them to your advantage.

RAMSDIS GOES EAST IR SATELLITE LOOP
goes-east_16km_psir4

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY
us

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR SNOW, RAIN, ICE (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
usa

This will be my last update, as I work tomorrow.  I will try to have another synopsis sometime late Sunday, providing I have the time.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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