COASTAL LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…MAY 04, 2016

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Analysis of global models this morning still indicates the development of a weak coastal low within the next 30-42 hours, IVO the Tidewater/Mid Atlantic area.

A 500 mb low continues to swing SE and should be over the area mentioned by Thu afternoon, early Friday.  As this occurs a double barrel, elongate surface low develops, then phased with the 500 mb feature, and the surface low becoming more consolidated.

Current forecast sustained winds are around 20-25 knots, with seas ranging 4-6 ft at the coast, and 7-10 ft away from the coast.  Both the GFS and CMC GGEM have the slowest solutions, keeping the low hanging around the coast for at least 2 days, whereas the ECMWF has a quicker solution, moving this low out in a period of 24 hours.

Based on the proximity of sustained winds and height of the sea near the coast, I cannot totally rule out a possibility of some minor beach erosion, or minor coastal breaching at the time of high tide, from NJ, northward along north facing beaches.

I have to work Thu-Sat, so will not be able to update any changes that may occur.  I do recommend visiting the NWS Warnings page (Hazards display) which is linked, and the OPC Offshore forecast page.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE INFRARED LOOP (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)
latest_east_ir4_conus

ECMWF
ECMWF.48
GFS
GFS48GGEM
GGEM.54

GFS/NAM 72 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS
GFS 72 HOUR PRECIP
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STORMSURF NJ WAVE HEIGHTS
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STORMSURF NJ WIND VELOCITY
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NWS RIDGE RADAR ACCESS

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COD METEOROLOGY DOPPLER RADAR
(Once you click on the NEXRAD button, and access which radar site you want, scroll over to the far left of the page, and a menu will appear with looping features)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

NCAR DOPPLER RADAR
imap_radar

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST
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As a reminder this office will begin issuance of the Tropical Weather Forecast Synopsis on May 15, 2016 (yes, when the EPAC season begins).  The purpose behind this will be to get myself back in the saddle of tropical forecasting, to familiarize newer subscribers to my product, and to watch against any PAC crossovers that may occur prior to June 01, 2016.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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