ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 09, 2021…8:30 A.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The SPC has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible.

The SPC DAY 1 Severe Outlook will be linked to the very first SPC graphic, so you may view it in its entirety.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1200
TORNADO OUTLOOK
day1probotlk_1200_torn
HAIL OUTLOOK
day1probotlk_1200_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
WIND OUTLOOK
day1probotlk_1200_wind
Based on my analysis of the SPC day 1 outlook text, the possible MCS I mentioned in yesterdays synopsis, did materialize, and is forecast to move SEWD.  Based on analysis of the MLCAPE and Bulk Shear values in the outlook, along with analyzed severe weather and tornado indices, I expect large hail, possibly up to 2+ inches in diameter, and I cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated, strong / long tracked tornado within the 5% tornado risk area, based on indices provided from the recent NAM – WRF run from F5 DATA Severe Weather software.  Some of the analyzed indices were as follows.  Please note that SBCAPE increases to almost 3000 j/kj early in the afternoon:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg; 1000 – 3000 j/kj
MLCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
STP: 1 – 6
LIFTED INDEX: -4 to -10
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 8.0 -9.0 C/km
SWEAT INDEX: 350 – 500
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following outlined maps indicate where the highest probability currently lies for the strongest of the severe weather, and tornado activity to occur.  These outlines currently match with severe index outlines per the most recent run of the SPC SREF model. As a reminder, these areas could change given any risk upgrade from the SPC, and any new information from the next model run.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 10:00 A.M. CDT
f5torn.10am.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT
f5torn.1pm.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT
f5torn.4pm.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT
f5torn.7pm.
NAM – WRF SUPERCELL PARAMETER AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER ANIMATION
nam-nest-scentus-supercell_comp-1620540000-1620572400-1620615600-40
nam-nest-scentus-sig_tor-1620540000-1620572400-1620615600-40

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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