MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 09, 2018…10:00 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3

2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS

TOTAL STORMS: 14
HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2

U.S. LANDFALLS: 3

Greetings everyone!

Hurricane Michael became the SECOND Major Hurricane of the season this afternoon.  As of the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory, the following was available on Michael:

7:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 26.6°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 953 mb / 28.14 in
Max sustained: 120 mph

HURREVAC NHC MAPS

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK…CLICK FOR STORM THREATS AND WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092344.shtml?

Michael’s satellite signature has become impressive over the last few hours, and analysis of the last clear visible image, indicate “hot towers” were noted around the eastern eyewall.  This is usually an indication that a hurricane is beginning to strengthen more.  It is also noted that in the last couple of frames, the eye appears to be clearing.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR LOOP)

GOES 16 GOMEX LOOP

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear maps, and structure of the storm, the upper level anticyclone was just centered a bit south of the eye, however the upper level outflow pattern continues to show improvement, though not fully optimal yet.  Based on the analysis of the shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS, indications are now that, the upper level anticyclone may become better established just prior to landfall.  Given the fact Michael has strengthened somewhat faster today, the much improved structure, and shear forecast, along with the presence of hot towers, by all rights,Michael should continue to strengthen, and I cannot safely rule out Michael attain CAT 4 status prior to landfall.  IF not, he should remain a powerful CAT 3 hurricane at landfall.  I did concur with the NHC intensity forecast at 5:00 pm. (which doesn’t update again until 11:00 p.m.), however I believe sustained winds will be higher, possibly around 130 mph.  The moderate shear the storm had experienced has not inhibited strengthening, and again, based on the outflow and shear forecast, Michael could continue to strengthen.  THIS IS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE…RESIDENTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE PREPARATIONS COMPLETE. IF YOUR LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER EITHER A VOLUNTARY OR MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER, YOU SHOULD LEAVE NOW, OR SHOULD HAVE ALREADY LEFT.

Michael is moving to the north at 12 mph, and I expect a turn to the NNE to begin sometime tomorrow morning.  Based on the forecast track, to which the dynamic and consensus models are clustered very tightly, I concur with the NHC forecast track, and Michael should make landfall sometime tomorrow afternoon, anywhere from Panama city, to Port St. Joe.

00Z TRACK GUIDANCE


Storm surge values will be highest near, and right of the center of where Michael makes landfall.  The following are storm surge maps from SLOSH software, both for a CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricane (plus or minus 20%):

CAT 3 STORM SURGE

CAT 4 STORM SURGE

I.K.E. or Integrated Kinetic Energy of a hurricane determines the Surge Destructive Potential.  The higher the value, the more destructive the storm surge. The SDP is the Surge Destructive Potential Rating based on a scale of zero to 6. SDP is interpreted similar to the Saffir Simpson scale in that the most destructive storms are rated above 5 and the least destructive storms < 1.   Based on the information forecast for landfall based on wind radius, the following SDP was calculated for Michael: 3.350.  This value could be higher if the wind radii expands.

Residents within the watch and warning areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and follow ALL local NWS Statements and warnings.  The following map IS LINKED.  Click the map, then click again on your area for SPECIFIC NWS information.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY

The following link is for LOCAL NWS HURRICANE STATEMENTS:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/100002.shtml?

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS (CLICK FOR LOOP)

KEVX EGLIN AFB FL.

KTLH DOPPLER LOOP

The following are forecast 7 day rainfall accumulation totals from the GFS and ECMWF:

GFS

ECMWF

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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