SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS DAYS 1 – 3…ISSUED APR. 17, 2015…11:00 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

 You may click on the graphics for animations, close in views, and current information, as they are linked to their respective sites.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of CENTRAL/SRN TX…

There is a SLIGHT risk SURROUNDING ENH AREA…NWD TO
PORTIONS KS…THEN NWWD TO PORTIONS ERN CO…

There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING SLGT RISK AND OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE…MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING…FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH TEXAS. THE THREATS WILL INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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day1probotlk_1300_torn

day1probotlk_1300_wind

day1probotlk_1300_hail

Upon analysis of the current outlook text, and forecast sounding parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms should fall within the ENHANCED risk outline.  Based on the forecast sounding parameters from the RAP, GFS and NAM-WRF, isolated tornadoes should be most probable within the 5% area over Texas, and may be somewhat more prevalent near the dryline. The current model output slightly disagrees with the tornado prob. over a portion of KS/CO, however the prob cannot be totally ruled out at the moment.  The most active time for initiation appears to lie within the time of 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. CDT.

F5 DATA DRYLINE POSITION 5:00 P.M. / 8:00 P.M. CDT
f5nam.5pmdryline

f5nam.8pmdryline

Based on forecast SBCAPE and MLCAPE values, and forecast lifted indices of -8 to -10, the main threat appears to be large hail in some areas, along with damaging wind gusts.  Based on various tornado forecast sounding parameters, I would not expect anything very strong or long tracked at the moment, based on these current forecast soundings.

Residents however are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS Statements for any sudden changes.  Please use the following linked graphics by clicking on them, to receive current information regarding watches and / or warnings.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (LINKED)

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED)

The SPC has also designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks.  I will try to update tomorrow for Day 2, but Day 3 will be later in the day, close to afternoon.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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Please check out my Preliminary Seasonal Hurricane Outlook published on Apr. 16, 2015

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER    

 

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