TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 19, 2017…9:30 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES:       6-8
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4

CURRENT TOTALS
STORMS: 15
HURRICANES: 10
MAJ. HURRICANES: 6

U.S. LANDFALLS: 5

Good evening everyone!

I haven’t been able to forecast due to my work schedule last week and this week.  However, I wanted to put out sort of a short “heads up” for everyone, so you don’t think I have forgotten you.

I have been discussing this on some weather groups I’m in on Facebook, for almost one week now.

I had done some quick analysis of the global modeling, which revealed a rising of pressure heights once again over the Eastern and SE U.S. during the weekend, which I had analyzed on Sunday.  This pressure pattern is not unlike the pattern which had the last storm in the Caribbean Sea or GOMEX…don’t exactly remember which.  During the early and late portions of the season, we look for this setup for situational developments.  When pressure heights rise north of the GOMEX, or over the Eastern and SE U.S., natural pressure height falls can occur or will occur over these two bodies of water.

Well, low and behold, the ECMWF Cyclone Probability Forecast modeling, and the NCEP EMC Tropical Cyclogenesis modeling page, along with the CPC Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits page, are indicating a MODERATE probability of a Tropical Depression developing.  The ECMWF indicates the process may be initialized in about 48 hours (this is when the pressure heights rise to the north and then begin to move east), then it indicates the best probability in about 6-7 days.

ECMWF CYCLONE PROBABILITY

NCEP EMC

CPC GLOBAL TROPICS (CLICK FOR LARGE IMAGE)

Analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds could be favorable for slow development, as an upper level anticyclone is forecast to become established near and over the area within that specific time frame in the forecast period.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST (SHOWING UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE)

Now, bear this in mind…this does not mean that something will definitely develop.  What all this indicates is, the cyclone genesis probability modeling is showing what SHOULD or COULD occur with the forecast pressure pattern and upper level wind pattern in the time referenced in the forecast period.

My next update will not be until sometime on Saturday.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any Tropical Storm development during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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