TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 27, 2015…11:35 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: ERIKA

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop,ics. but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 1
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

This update will be limited, as I do not have access to everything.

Tropical Storm Erika has remained pretty much Status Quo today with the exception of looking even less organized in earlier satellite loop imagery.  In case you are wondering about the slight change in positions noted today, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft did report a center reformation slightly to the south at 11:00 a.m.

As of the 11:00 p.m. advisory, the following information was available on Tropical Storm Erika.

11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27
Location: 16.6°N 65.3°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb/29.77 in
Max sustained: 45 mph

NHC TRACKING MAP
025731W5_NL_11pmsm

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin * St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika.

Erika has been moving pretty much toward the west, however a weakness in the subtropical ridge should allow her to resume a more WNW motion in about 24-30 hours (approx).  Based on my analysis of the earlier Global Models run, the ECMWF opens her into a remnant low, and sends it a little further south across south FL. and toward W.Central FL.  GFS and CMC are in line with the NHC track.  Forecast steering maps bring a Minimal CAT 1 Hurricane just onshore near Canaveral.  Model guidance and forecast track have been fluctuating, and this is normal, given the shape Erika has been in.

A Gulfstream IV aircraft has been performing a surveillance mission around Erika, and it appears the information from the flight may have been entered into the modeling, as the 00Z Dynamic guidance has come much closer together.  The BLACK line is the NHC.  The TVCC/TVCN models are the more accurate of the consensus models.  Right now, this is the most accurate projection, until I can see how strong she may become, and where exactly she interacts with land.  Please also refer to the current NHC forecast discussion:

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/280304.shtml

00Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
98L 00Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

ERIKA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0ERIKA-lalo

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

Erika has not changed in strength.  However, the current wind shear map had indicated a drop in wind shear from 25 knots to 20 knots over the storm. 

CIMSS WIND SHEAR
tccaptureshear

This appears it may be evident in satellite loop imagery, as she appears to have become a little better organized in the last couple of frames in the loop imagery.  The current wind shear forecast, which has been consistent in its runs from yesterday and tonight, still indicate in about 30-36 hours, upper level winds are to become a little more favorable for strengthening, and an upper level anticyclone is forecast to develop over Erika in about 60-72 hours, and remain in tandem with Erika through the 120 hour forecast period in the NHC forecast track.  Based on this, I concur at the moment with the NHC intensity forecast, which is what the more accurate of the intensity models indicate.  However,( this may be slim), but if Erika holds together well enough after Hispaniola, given the premise of a favorable upper level wind pattern, I cannot fully rule out a stronger CAT 1, possibly minimal CAT 2 hurricane by days 4 and 5 in the NHC forecast track period, as Erika will be traversing some fairly high Ocean Heat Content.  Now, this doesn’t mean it will definitely occur, however, the possibility does exist.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST MAPS
850200shear13
850200shear16
ERIKA OHC MAP
tccaptureohc

Based on the dynamic models and NHC track, unless the forecast steering pattern changes abruptly, residents along the Florida east coast should review any hurricane preparedness plans.  I have preparedness plans under my links column on the right.

Should your area be placed under a Hurricane WATCH, please be prepared to take immediate action.

Residents along the coastal areas of GA/SC/NC should closely monitor the progress of Erika during the next 48 hours.  If I can, I will try to have an update sometime tomorrow.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  


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