TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION: NONE
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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CURRENT 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TOTALS:
TOTAL STORMS: 14
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
StormW’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 13-15
INTENSE HURRICANES: 3-4
Good evening everyone!
There has really been no change to my forecast since yesterday. Pretty much of a repeat of yesterday’s synopsis. ALL of the basins still remain quiet. Cloudiness and showers had increased in the W. Caribbean earlier, however high wind shear values are over the area from the GOMEX through the Lesser Antilles.
At the moment, analysis of the global models does not indicate any support for development.
At days 8-9 in the period, the ECMWF and the GFS indicate lowering MSLP heights NE of Puerto Rico, based on both MSLP normalized anomalies, and 500 mb height normalized anomalies. I’ll be looking at this over the next few days, mainly for model agreement and consistency, seeing how the hurricane season goes until NOV. 30
Elsewhere, the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement of a brief coastal/onshore low becoming centered over the Gulf of Maine in around 60-72 hours. Based on surface wind flow and analysis from the GFS and ECMWF, and StormSurf WaveWatch modeling, winds of 30 to possibly 40 mph with higher gusts, may be experienced along the coast and over the open Atlantic waters of New Hampshire and Maine, specifically over the Gulf of Maine. Analysis of the WAVEWATCH modeling from Storm Surf indicates seas could reach 5-6 ft along the immediate coast, with seas ranging 10-14 ft over the Gulf of Maine by late Thur./Early Friday. Residents along the coast may very well experience some minor coastal flooding and erosion at the time of high tide.
It is highly recommended residents remain away from beaches during this period, and small craft should remain in port. I recommend residents monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and tune to their local NWS for statements regarding this probable system.
The following graphic is linked to the OPC Atlantic Offshore Forecast texts:
With a break in the tropical action, I will most likely pick back up on severe weather forecasting, if nothing is going on in the tropics, or coastal wise. After the close of the hurricane season, severe weather forecasts will take priority, but I will begin to delve into winter weather as warranted, with the inclusion of a winter weather discussion.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS