TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 30, 2021…7:55 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES:       1
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening indicates the Atlantic basin still remains pretty quiet, with the exception of a strong tropical wave coming off the African coast.  Water vapor loop imagery still shows an abundance of dry air in the mid level of the atmosphere.  You will note however, that moisture over the extreme western portion of the African continent has improved, as well as out to 30W.  This is most likely in response to the MJO beginning to enter phase 8.  You will also note a slight increase in thunderstorm activity over Africa.  This is most likely telling us that changes may be slowly taking place as well.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS
91253393ir
91253393
AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE
us_sat-en-087-0_2021_07_30_21_45_641_126

Analysis of the global models ECMWF, and GFS, do not indicate any development during the next 7 days.  I am not expecting anything to develop in the Atlantic during the next 7 days due to lack of vertical instability.

Now while it’s still quiet, I recommend all who read this, especially residents in hurricane prone and easily flooded areas, CHECK YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ITEMS / PLANS, AND STOCK UP ON NON PERISHABLES, WATER, ETC.  In other words, HAVE A PLAN!  You’ll find numerous links to hurricane preparedness on the very right side of this site page.

You’ve heard me mention the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) before, and more often in the past week or so.  Analysis of this feature this evening, reveals that we may be seeing changes come about slowly during the next 2 weeks.  Analysis of MJO phase space diagrams shows the MJO forecast to move into phases 1 and 2 during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble BC (Bias Corrected), keep adjusting little by little toward the JMA solution.  The yellow lines in the diagrams represent the different ensemble members.
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
ECMF_phase_51m_full
ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full
JMAN PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
JMAN_phase_51m_full
The following are current CHI200 anomalies forecast maps from various models.  Based on past hurricane seasons, the performance of the JMA (same as JMAN) has been superior at forecasting upward motion (rising air at the 200 mb level), and downward motion (sinking air at 200 mb).  Since picking up on this 3 or 4 seasons ago, I have noted almost always, when the JMA showed a favorable CHI200 phase (BLUE SHADING) over the Atlantic basin, our activity has increased as far as tropical waves, and/or tropical storm formation.  If you look at the ECMWF EPS and JMA forecast, you can see the favorable pattern with blue and greens indicating upward motion, and yellow and browns indicating downward motion.
JMA CHI2OO ANOMALIES FORECAST 30 JUL – 05 AUG
jma.1
06 AUG – 12 AUG
jma.2
13 AUG – 26 AUG
jma.3
28 DAY MEAN
jma.4
CURRENT ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021073012_CONTROL_120
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021073012_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021073012_CONTROL_360
 GFS MJO CHI200 FORECAST
twc_globe_mjo_vp200
As the upward motion signal becomes stronger over Africa, we should see tropical wave activity increase, as moisture and instability should increase.  The same lays true over the Atlantic, in that as we come under these forecast phases, we should see instability increase.  At the moment, instability over the MDR is still way below climatology.
CURRENT VERTICAL INSTABILITY CHART (BLACK LINE REPRESENTS CLIMATOLOGY)
ts_al_tat_THDV
Now, if you look at the phase chart for the MJO, and if you go back and look at the CHI200 anomalies forecast maps, you can pretty much match up that the CHI200 forecast indicates us going into phases 8, 1, and 2.  These phases are the phases favorable for development in the GOMEX, Caribbean and Atlantic basin, with phases 1 and 2 being the most favorable.
MJO PHASE CHART
mjo. phases
The following maps indicate where on average, tropical cyclone development occurs during phase 8, phase 1, and phase 2.  Orange and red indicate favored development areas.
PHASE 8
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITARTphase.8
PHASE 1
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITARTphase.1
PHASE 2
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITARTphase.2
Putting it all together, if the MJO forecast continues to come to fruition, we should slowly see wave activity begin to increase over the African continent, near the 6th of AUG. and beyond.  However, based on information I read in an AMS Journal article, activity in the Atlantic  increases about 5 days into the passage of the MJO.  Based on this, I believe we should see a more substantial increase starting the second 10 days of Aug.  If the forecast shown remains intact (entire month of Aug.), we could be in for a busy Aug.  Analysis of the ECMWF ensemble weeklies indicate the “ridge over troubled water” showing up by mid Aug.  When this ridge is in the position shown, lowering pressures can occur well south and SE of it.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE WEEKLIES FORECAST
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-exatl-z500_anom_7day-8812800
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-exatl-z500_anom_7day-8899200
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-exatl-z500_anom_7day-9072000
Again, please use this down time and ensure you have a hurricane plan.

I will continue to monitor the Tropical Atlantic for any significant changes to the forecast parameters, whether favorable or unfavorable.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 

 

 

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