SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 30, 2017…4:00 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The SPC has designated the following severe weather risk areas in the Day 1 Outlook as of the 1630Z issuance:

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEEP SOUTH TO MIDWEST…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Deep South into the Midwest, mainly this afternoon into early evening.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

At the time of analysis, severe thunderstorms and hail were in progress over Alabama.

Based on forecast sounding data analysis, through F5 DATA software, from the current run of the RAP model, the following outlined maps suggest from the model solution, where the best probability of severe thunderstorms should occur, along with possible hail, and tornadoes.  The sounding data analyzed, indicates that isolated tornadoes could become strong and long track, especially  Modeling suggests the onset of the most severe weather to be around 3:00 p.m. CDT this evening, through 10:00 p.m. CDT.

RAP MODEL 3:00 P.M. CDT

RAP MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT

RAP MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT

Residents in the outlined SPC SLIGHT risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements for up to date information regarding any necessary actions.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY (Click local area once map displays to zoom in)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

I will probably be updating my 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, and have it posted mid to late May.  ALL the climate models have updated, and if current suggested information is accurate, we may not see El Nino this season, but neutral, warm biased conditions, to possibly an El Nino Modoki.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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