SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 14, 2017… 11:00 A.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk this morning over a small portion of the MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL AREA…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO AFTERNOON…ELSEWHERE FROM THE TX COASTAL BEND TO EAST TX AND WESTERN LA…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MS RIVER MOUTH TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN SLIGHT-RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND AL…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY
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SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
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SPC HAIL PROBABILITY
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A line of heavy to severe thunderstorms was currently moving through eastern TX at the time of analysis.  The following TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 1: 00 p.m. CST

TORNADO WATCH 0032 (LINKED)
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Information contained in the SPC outlook text suggests by early mid afternoon, a general decrease in upper level support, and inflow layer instability, as the system moves DEEPER into LA.  The current system is QLCS in nature, and severe weather and any tornadoes will be within stronger supercells embedded in the QLCS.

Currently, the greatest tornado threat lies within the outlined area from SPC, and within the tornado watch area, which is verified by analysis of the 12Z NAM model.  Analysis of forecast soundings using the NAM from F5 DATA suggests, as this systems progresses to the east throughout this afternoon, the greatest threat for tornadoes (albeit tornadoes could still develop within the SPC 2% outline) should lie within the following outlined areas, until approximately 1:00 p.m. CST.  As the system continues east today, a lull should occur as it approaches into western LA, as based on the above information per SPC, although some lingering, isolated supercells cannot be ruled out as of the time of this synopsis. 

F5 NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
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The system is forecast to re-energize throughout tonight, into early Wed. morning, when the severe weather and tornado threat may increase.  The following outlines represent, based on forecast soundings, where the greatest probability of tornadoes could occur, after 10:00 p.m. CST.  It is noted, based on current forecast soundings, that an isolated strong tornado or two could occur, closer to the southern portion of the outline areas.  This activity should spread into the Florida Panhandle area sometime after midnight.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
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IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Residents along the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements regarding this severe weather.  The following graphics are linked for you to click to retrieve up to date information.  The NWS Hazard and Warnings display will provide you with up too date NWS information and warnings for your area.

SPC CURRENT WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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