NORTH CAROLINA OBX COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 09. 2018…4:35 P.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Greetings everyone!

The next coastal storm I spoke of yesterday has developed faster than forecast yesterday, and originated close to FL. over the extreme NE GOMEX.  This low is forecast to move and deepen quickly, and is slated to be off the OBX by sometime tonight, approximately 7:00 – 10:00 p.m. EST. As the coastal storm deepens, NE winds are forecast to increase to around 25 – 35 kts (30 – 40 mph), and 35 – 50 kts by tonight, with higher gusts.  A storm warning is in effect for the area until tomorrow morning.

URGENT – MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

…STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND DANGEROUS SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK…

A prolonged period of strong winds and dangerous seas are expected to develop later today as an area of low pressure slowly lifts along the North Carolina coast. Northeast winds will increase to 25 to 35 knots with gusts 35 to 45 knots. Winds increase to storm force tonight as low pressure deepens rapidly off the Outer Banks. Seas are expected to build to 10 to 18 feet.

S of Currituck Beach Light to Oregon Inlet NC out 20 nm-
1000 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

…STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY…

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued a Storm Warning, which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday. The Gale Warning is no longer in effect.

* WINDS…Northeast 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt.

* SEAS…9 to 14 feet.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS


A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds and waves subside.

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE MARINE FORECAST (CLICK RED OUTLINES FOR YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

ECMWF FORECAST SURFACE WINDS

ECMWF FORECAST SURFACE WIND GUSTS

NAM SURFACE WINDS FORECAST

Again, some coastal flooding and beach erosion could be experienced along the immediate coastal areas.  More precipitation is expected with some periods of heavy rain, and wet snow, and freezing precipitation.  Roads will become dangerous as the temperature drops below freezing and icing occurs in some regions.  Again, by Tuesday and Wednesday, minimum temperatures drop, with freezing conditions forecast in the deep south, including some counties in north Florida.

ECMWF 120 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOW FORECAST AND PRECIPITATION TYPE

ECMWF FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPE (VALID 00Z TONIGHT)

ECMWF TOTAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION (RAIN) 120 HOURS
NAM 84 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

ECMWF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

The following is the NWS Hazard and Warning map.  Click on the map, then click on your area of interest form warnings and statements regarding this system.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS ANIMATED RADAR (SNOW, RAIN, ICE) CLICK MAP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP WAKEFIELD, VA. (CLICK IMAGES)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR HYDROMETEOR (PRECIP TYPE) LOOP WAKEFIELD, VA

The following is the Intellicast Frost / Freeze map.  This map will update daily with the frost / freeze outlook for the following morning.  Click on the map for the update information.

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

Another low is forecast to begin to develop over near OK/AR around the 14th and move NE as it deepens, eventually affecting the eastern U.S. and N.E.  I may not be able to update you on this one, given my late work schedule this week.

Have a blessed week!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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