Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL STORMS: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The area of low pressure along the U.S. East coast has moved inland, and was located over PA. early this morning.
Elsewhere, a fairly good looking tropical wave is exiting the coast of Africa, and is moving to the west at around 15 mph. Based on analysis of current steering layers mean, and forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 5 days.
Based on the current latitude and estimated forward motion, analysis of the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast shows upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat marginal over the next 5 days.
Analysis of forecast relative humidity maps tend to indicate by 120 hours (day 5), drier air will intrude in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
ECMWF RH FORECAST 700 MB 120 HOURS
ECMWF RH FORECAST 500 MB 120 HOURS
Based on this analysis, the wave may try to make a run at some slow, slight development, however I do not believe at this time, this wave will survive given the forecast of drier air, and increasing shear after day 5 – 6 (120 – 144 hours). I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, I really have no changes in my thoughts at this time in my thinking that we may not see and upswing in activity until close to the start of the second week in Aug., based on IF the MJO filtered 200 mb VP forecast is correct.
CURRENT MJO FILTERED VP 200 MB FORECAST
[Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis].
African dust is still forecast to affect the Atlantic basin during the next 5 – 10 days, and the Azores / Bermuda ridge forecast to average between 1026 – 1031 mb during the period.
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST
Until the subtropical ridge weakens enough, there will continue to be stronger sinking air over the Atlantic, along with the stronger wind flow associated with the stronger high, helping to push dust off of Africa. In short, and in simple terms, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a decent indicator of the strength of the subtropical ridge. When the NAO is in a “positive” phase, the Azores high is stronger, and when the NAO is in a “negative” phase, it tends to be weaker. The following is an article on the NAO.
Based on the recent NAO forecast, the NAO may begin to go negative by months end, into the first week of Aug.
GFS NAO FORECAST
ECMWF NAO FORECAST
I work late again Tues through Sat., so my next update will be next Sunday, unless something unexpectedly pops up.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS