TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 03, 2015…12:10 P.M. EDT

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, favoring development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 2
HURRICANES: 0
INTENSE HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8 – 10
HURRICANES:                   3 – 5
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1 – 2

Good day everyone!

The tropics remain very quiet once again thus far.  Several Tropical Waves were noted in the 06Z TAFB Surface analysis map, however there is a lack of any “notable” satellite signature in satellite imagery.

NHC TAFB 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06Z

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY WIDE VIEW
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Analysis of the global models this morning once again indicates, no tropical storm formation over the next 7-10 days.  Upper level winds are not conducive for development, and the shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain unfavorable during the next 2 weeks.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP FROM CIMSS
wg8shr

The NAO is forecast to remain pretty much negative through mid month, which would tend to allow for slightly more favorable conditions in the sense of weakening trade winds and allowing for heat to build up in the tropics, however, it still appears the MJO Index forecast doesn’t bring the MJO into our area over the next 2 weeks.  There is a discrepancy between the MJO Index forecast, and the OLR anomaly forecast.  Now, if the MJO Index forecast is correct, it would indicate a quiet 2 – 3 weeks ahead.  IF the OLR Anomaly forecast plays out, then we could see some activity around, or just after mid month, as it indicates some strong upward motion from the MJO.  Past forecast experience in comparing these two models, has me leaning toward the MJO Index as the more accurate solution, however I will be monitoring the situation over the next 7 days.

NAO INDEX FORECAST
nao.sprd2

MJO INDEX FORECAST GFS / ECMWF
NCPE_phase_21m_full

ECMF_phase_51m_full

FILTERED OLR FORECAST
MJO.forecast.olr

So, right now, it’s pretty much a wait and see.  Wish I had more to give you, but what can I say…it’s dead out there!

Have a blessed day, and a Happy Fourth of July!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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