SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 02, 2016…10:00 A.M. EST…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms over parts of MS…AL…TN…KY…AND SRN IND…

There is a SLIGHT risk surrounding the enhanced area FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE LWR OH VLY…

There is a MARGINAL risk FROM THE GULF CST INTO THE MID-OH VLY…

Summary from the SPC Outlook:

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES — A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG — ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK CATEGORY DESCRIPTIONS
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This took a while, as I had to wait for some of the models to update.  The SPC indicates the main threat for tornadoes today to lie mainly within the enhanced risk area, and a small portion of the slight risk area over portions of MS/AL.

Analysis of STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast soundings, SRH (Storm Relative Helicity), EHI (Energy Helicity Index), LI (Lifted Index), and VGP (Vorticity Generation Potential), and various other forecast soundings from both the College of DuPage, and F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, forecast indices indicate SRH of 300-350, EHI of 1-5, and STP values ranging from 1 -3 (covering most of the enhanced area) and STP values from 5-8 over suggested pockets over a portion of MS.  This is most likely as well in the “SIGNIFICANT” area pockets as outlined in the tornado probability graphic from SPC.  Overall, based on the F5 DATA graphic from the 12Z NAM-WRF model, the greatest probability for experiencing significant severe weather, and possible isolated strong tornadoes, lies within the white outline based on the NAM-WRF solution.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF TORNADO PROB OUTLINE
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Again, isolated forecast sounding parameters do somewhat mimic the more significant areas of the SPC tornado graphic.  Based on the NAM-WRF solution it appears the bulk of the most significant severe weather may occur between 3:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. CST.  As stated in my previous forecast, Significant Tornado Parameters of 1 or greater, indicates the potential for strong tornadoes increases dramatically.

The SPC Day 1 graphic should update around 11:00 a.m. EST.  ALL graphics below are linked to their respective sites to provide up to date graphics and text…for some reason the graphics do not update on this page.

Residents within the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio today, and local NWS Statements and advisories.

IF a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Suggested actions to be taken when a tornado warning is issued:
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html)

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
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SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (LINKED)
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY (LINKED)
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
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NWS HAZARDS DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK ON YOUR AREA)
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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