TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 98L / SUSPECT AREA GOMEX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 22, 2019…7:10 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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The following is the list of storm names for the season.  Those marked in bold red, have already occurred this season:
Andrea Barry Chantal  Dorian  Erin  Fernand  Gabrielle  Humberto  Imelda  Jerry  Karen  Lorenzo  Melissa  Nestor  Olga  Pablo  Rebekah  Sebastien  Tanya  Van  Wendy

STORMW’s CURRENT SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12 – 15
TOTAL HURRICANES :        6 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 4

2019 SEASON TOTAL:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES :      1
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U.S. LANDFALLS: 1

Good evening everyone!

The tropics have awakened (somewhat).  Had a surprise that caught me, as I haven’t been able to be on to monitor anything in the past few days.  The NHC did name Tropical Storm Chantal.  WHY?  I don’t know…I believe they are really stretching it this season.  In any case, Chantal has been downgraded to a depression, and poses no threat to the U.S.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TWO (LINKED)

Satellite imagery indicates a few features, with one being a wave exiting Africa, which is currently forecast to move NW then north, and not crossing the Atlantic basin.

GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION)

You can pick out the area over the Bahamas as marked in the NHC TWO map.  This feature is newly designated Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98L.  As of the 18Z ATCF BTK file update, the following information was available on INVEST 98L:

LOCATED: 24.9N;78.3W
MOVEMENT: NW @ 6 MPH (EST.)
MAX. WIND: 20 MPH

Over the past few hours, the disturbance appears to have become slightly better organized, and some “fanning out” of the cloud shield can be noted.  This could possibly be a sign of some upper level outflow trying to develop, which is noted in the latest upper level wind map from CIMSS.

INVEST 98L SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK)

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP

The current intensity was set at 20 mph.  Based on my analysis of the current and forecast upper level/shear pattern, and initial intensity guidance, INVEST 98L could become a depression during the next 72 hours, and possibly a tropical storm as it recurves and nears the latitude of the Tidewater area.  Currently, upper level winds are only slightly favorable for further organization.  However, by later tonight, early tomorrow, the upper level pattern is forecast to become more favorable, with the development of an upper level anti-cyclone over the disturbance, moving in tandem with the system as shown by the ECMWF wind shear forecast.  Given the disturbance will pretty much be moving over warm water, we could see some slow, then steady strengthening. 

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on the intensity guidance, and matching it against the forecast upper pattern, I am not quite with the upper two models, but more in between the clustered models, and upper guidance.  The ECMWF does indicate a 75 mph storm as it moves away from the U.S. coast.  While I cannot rule this out right now, intensity guidance and track guidance should be viewed with caution, as conditions will most likely change.  The GFS at the moment doesn’t really show an interest in the system developing.

18Z INITIAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE:

ECMWF FORECAST

GFS FORECAST

Based on current and forecast steering maps, I prefer the ECMWF path of this at the moment, where it moves over the eastern one third of the Florida peninsula, before moving toward the northeast.  Right now, dynamic models have not posted yet, so I’m going with a blend of the CLP5/TABM models.

The following is a radar loop from the FL/Bahamas area.  Click on the image to access the loop control:

FLORIDA REGION DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

I will continue to monitor INVEST 98L for any significant changes over the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, a large area of disturbed weather has increased in cloudiness and thunderstorm activity.  This area is moving slowly northward at the moment.

Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery, some rotation is noted, mainly over the SW GOMEX, to the SW of all the convective activity.  Based on analysis of the current vorticity maps, the circulation appears to be mainly mid level, based on lack of vorticity at the 850 mb level, with vorticity noted at 500 mb.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Analysis of the global models didn’t show anything on the current runs, however I am going to monitor this area closely, as upper level winds a currently somewhat favorable with a partial upper level anticyclone over the area, and somewhat of an outflow pattern noted in the upper level wind map.  Outflow can also be detected by the fanning out motion of the upper level clouds.  Based on the wind shear forecast, this area could try to become a defined surface circulation, just near or at the coast, when upper level winds become very favorable for a brief moment.  Regardless of development, this area could bring some heavy rains to the Gulf Coast area.  I will be monitoring this area very close, for any significant changes.

ECMWF TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST 120 HOURS

GULF COAST REGION DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS LOOP CONTROL)

As far as the future, MORE sinking air is forecast by the JMA model:

JMA CHI200 FORECAST

Elsewhere Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions this season by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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