COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 14, 2021…7:45 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Good evening,
Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models this evening, still indicates an area of low pressure forecast to develop just off the DELMARVA area by tomorrow morning.  Based on current forecast motion, the low will make a semi-cyclonic loop, prior to consolidating and deepening, and make one more cyclonic loop after it consolidates.  The low is then forecast to move off to the east, and away from the coast by the weekend.  Currently, this low is forecast to bring surface winds of weak T.S. force over the Gulf of Maine, right along the immediate coastal area as the center of the low crosses into Maine.  Given the onshore flow from MA., northward, coastal flooding and beach erosion cannot be ruled out.  The system will draw very cold air down from the north, and snow is forecast over a portion of New England and the NE, with isolated heavy amounts over New Hampshire and Vermont.  I do not anticipate this developing any tropical characteristics.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES ANIMATION MAPS

ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WIND SPEED ANIMATION MAPS


ECMWF AND GFS KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTAL ANIMATION MAPS


Sea heights are currently forecast to reach around 10 – 13 ft over some portions near the coast and offshore.  It is advised that small craft remain in port, and residents along the coast remain away from beaches.  Shipping interests should monitor the situation closely.
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)


GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED FOR UPDATE LOOP…CLICK SATELLITE PIC)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

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