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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics. Form this point on, as it appears activity may pick up, I will be updating on systems that pose a threat closest to the U.S. first, and then any other areas of concern, should we encounter multiple systems.
The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season. The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy
STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 6
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 4
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening. IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life. This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.
The NHC has decreased the probability of tropical cyclone development regarding a wave located near 35W, to ZERO, and are calling for non development.
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
We do however, have another well defined wave close to the African coast, located at approximately 12N;22W. Based on satellite loop imagery, this wave appears to be fairly organized. NHC designated a LOW (20%) probability for development during the next 5 days.
GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGE
Based on satellite motion, current layer mean steering map, and analysis of the current run of forecast steering maps, this disturbance should continue to move in a general westward direction over the next 72 – 96 hours. I’ll be taking another look at the steering forecast each day in case any significant changes in the steering flow.
The current upper level pattern is only marginal at the moment, with a diffluent vice divergent pattern. Air currently in the upper levels is spreading out in one direction over and ahead of the system.
CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR MAP
Based on my analysis of the recent wind shear forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models, the ECMWF has upper level winds improving to a somewhat more favorable environment, with lowering shear velocities and weak semi-anticyclonic flow, while the GFS zonal wind shear forecast tends to indicate a more favorable upper pattern.
GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
Dry air doesn’t appear to be a factor at the moment, however the RH (Relative Humidity) forecast indicates after about 96 hours, intermittent dry air entrainment could occur both at 700 mb and 500 mb. Of course, this could change if this system keeps producing decent convection. As we have just seen, ISAIAS was affected on and off through his journey, and became an 85 mph hurricane. As a hurricane produces convection, even in pulses, this has a tendency to aid in moistening the surrounding atmosphere. Right now, based on the current premise the upper pattern begins to become unfavorable, and the forecast of the presence of drier air, I feel this system may begin to weaken and become less organized after about 120 hours in the forecast period. Given that conditions are forecast to remain marginal to somewhat favorable until that point, I believe we could see some further slow organization and slow development with this. Right now, none of the models show this developing into a depression or storm, but probably won’t be accurately initialized by the modeling until later tonight.
I will continue to monitor this system, and time allowing, will update when possible.
Elsewhere, after analyzing various parameters regarding the future of the tropics, I am still seeing favorable signals for this season to begin picking up gradually over the next week, and probably open up the last 10 days of this month. PLEASE take advantage of preparedness literature while time still permits. Here is my preparedness post from yesterday evening:
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS