TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 22, 2018…7:45 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3

2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 2
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

Greetings everyone!

The area of low pressure along the U.S. East coast has moved inland, and was located over PA. early this morning.

Elsewhere, a fairly good looking tropical wave is exiting the coast of Africa, and is moving to the west at around 15 mph.  Based on analysis of current steering layers mean, and forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 5 days.

EUMETSAT (CLICK FOR ANIMATION PAGE)

Based on the current latitude and estimated forward motion, analysis of the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast shows upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat  marginal over the next 5 days.

Analysis of forecast relative humidity maps tend to indicate by 120 hours (day 5), drier air will intrude in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

ECMWF RH FORECAST 700 MB 120 HOURS
ECMWF RH FORECAST 500 MB 120 HOURS

Based on this analysis, the wave may try to make a run at some slow, slight development, however I do not believe at this time, this wave will survive given the forecast of drier air, and increasing shear after day 5 – 6 (120 – 144 hours).  I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I really have no changes in my thoughts at this time in my thinking that we may not see and upswing in activity until close to the start of the second week in Aug., based on IF the MJO filtered 200 mb VP forecast is correct.

CURRENT MJO FILTERED VP 200 MB FORECAST

[Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis].

African dust is still forecast to affect the Atlantic basin during the next 5 – 10 days, and the Azores / Bermuda ridge forecast to average between 1026 – 1031 mb during the period.

SKIRON DUST FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)

ECMWF MSLP FORECAST


Until the subtropical ridge weakens enough, there will continue to be stronger sinking air over the Atlantic, along with the stronger wind flow associated with the stronger high, helping to push dust off of Africa.  In short, and in simple terms, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a decent indicator of the strength of the subtropical ridge.  When the NAO is in a “positive” phase, the Azores high is stronger, and when the NAO is in a “negative” phase, it tends to be weaker.  The following is an article on the NAO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

Based on the recent NAO forecast, the NAO may begin to go negative by months end, into the first week of Aug.

GFS NAO FORECAST

ECMWF NAO FORECAST

I work late again Tues through Sat., so my next update will be next Sunday, unless something unexpectedly pops up.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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