MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / FINAL TROPICAL UPDATE SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 28, 2017…3:00 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued the following risk areas in the day 1 outlook as of the 16300Z update:

…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK…

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OK TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHWEST TX…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VA AND NC…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Numerous severe storms are expected across the southern Great Plains including parts of Texas and Oklahoma, especially late this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAPS

TORNADO PROBABILITY

WIND PROBABILITY

HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point

Based on analysis of information contained within the SPC outlook, and current mesoscale discussions, severe thunderstorms may be initiating over Texas very shortly.  Current information based on the RAP model (mentioned in the outlook), and analysis of recent forecast sounding data from F5 DATA severe weather software, forecast soundings indicate the onset to be around 2:00 – 3:00 p.m. CDT, into this evening.  Based on forecast sounding values and indices, the RAP model indicates the most likely probability for severe thunderstorms, including isolated very large hail, damaging thunderstorm downdrafts, and tornadoes. to lie within the first set of outlined areas.  (note…the 1:00 p.m. map  is shown, however the 2:00 p.m. was excatly the same):

F5 DATA RAP 2:00 P.M. CST

 F5 DATA RAP MODEL 5:00 P.M. CDT

F5 DATA RAP MODEL 8:00 P.M. CDT

Some isolated tornadoes could become strong, and long tracked, based on indices analyzed.  The following outlines indicate where the best probability may occur, based on these indices, and could possibly extend into the early evening hours, just beyond 5:00 p.m. CDT:

F5 DATA 2:00 CDT P.M. RAP MODEL

F5 DATA 5:00 CDT  P.M. RAP MODEL

The following select indices were noted in analysis:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 3000 J/KG
MLCAPE: 1000 – 25000 J/KG
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -10
STP: 6 – 13

Residents within the MODERATE and ENHANCED risk areas should closely monitor the situation throughout the day, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local news stations, and local NWS Statements and/or warnings.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

The following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  Mouse over and click on the graphics for up to date information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR SITE MAP

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (click on graphic, then your area of interest)

Elsewhere, the low pressure area I was monitoring,north of Hispaniola, was designated as INVEST90L early yesterday.  Analysis of satellite imagery indicates wind shear has taken its toll on this low. which has broadened and become elongated. This system has since been removed from the database, and I still do  not expect any further development.

NOAA CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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