SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ENHANCED RISK FOR MONDAY…ISSUED NOV. 04, 2018…5:20 EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3

2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS

TOTAL STORMS: 15
HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2

U.S. LANDFALLS: 4

Greetings everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms from the ARKLAMISS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY in the current DAY 2 Convective Outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND PROBABILISTIC MAP


Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

SPC SUMMARY:
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected mainly Monday evening and overnight from northern Mississippi across Tennessee and into central Kentucky.

Based on my analysis of information contained in the SPC DAY 2 Convective Outlook text, along with analysis of F5 DATA software, SPC SREF model, and analysis of some severe weather/tornado parameters utilizing the GFS and mainly the NAM-WRF models, a significant severe weather event looks probable within the ENHANCED risk area, with the greater probability lying within the SPC hatched significant 30% area.  Based on the SPC text, along with a broad cyclonic flow aloft, a shortwave trough will be moving into the risk areas, and is forecast to take on a negative tilt. 

When a trough becomes negatively tilted, it generally indicates the associated low has reached maturity and is at its strongest point.  This will increase vorticity near the jet streak.  Here is a breif explanation from meteorologist Jeff Habys site:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/

Though indications are lapse rates will not be strong (based on analysis of forecast lapse rates), destabilization will occur due to high moisture content advecting northward from the Gulf of Mexico, which will introduce surface dewpoints in the 60’sF range, along with high relative humidity values, and sufficient cooling aloft.  Destabilization is forecast to occur after 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) farther north and east over the enhanced risk area.  Based on the SPC Outlook, the cold front will emerge into the enhanced risk area and increase lift.  Currently, the main threat appears to be damaging winds and tornadoes, with the tornado threat being more weighted toward areas where warmer, more unstable air will be located.  Some hail is possible with stronger cells, however I am not looking for any severe hail, given the forecast weak lifted indices, and CAPE values.

Based on graphics information per F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the outlined areas have the highest probability of tornadic activity.  Based on analysis of the various parameters, I cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated strong tornado within the SPC significant hatched area in the previous map.  Based on the time stamp of the maps, it appears the uptick in activity and severity should occur between 10:00 p.m. CST Monday through 3:00 a.m. CST Tuesday.  Be advised, these outlines are based on the forecast information at the time of my analysis, and could change with any updates in the models.  Please check the SPC for updates tomorrow:

NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY FORECAST (MIDNIGHT TO 3:00 A.M. CST)

NAM-WRF MIDNIGHT MON/TUES

NAM-WRF 3:00 A.M.

The following are current forecast parameters for STP (Sig. Tornado Parameter) and SCP (Super Cell Composite).  The higher the value, the greater the risk of a significant tornado and/or super cell development:

NAM STP (36 HOUR, 39 HOUR AND 42 HOUR FORECAST)

NAM SCP FORECAST

Residents within the Slight and Enhanced risk areas should closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements tomorrow.  I have to work and won’t be around to update you.  PLEASE, use the following NWS map to check on your area by clicking the map, and then clicking on your area of interest, along with the SPC link for the DAY 1 Outlook.  The SPC Mesoscale Discussions and Watch maps are also linked.  Click on them for update information.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

IF YOU ARE UNABLE TO SEEK SHELTER, GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM IN YOUR HOME, AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  GRAB A MATTRESS AND PILLOWS AND COVER YOUR BODY.  THIS WILL HELP PROTECT YOU FROM FLYING DEBRIS!

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS (CLICK IMAGES FOR LOOP)

Have a blessed week!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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