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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 6
U.S. LANDFALLS: 5
Good evening everyone!
INVEST 92L is just north of the western portion of Hispaniola. As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 15
Location: 20.8°N 68.0°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Satellite presentation this evening indicates a sheared system. The ball of convection is located east of the center of the system, and you can see the exposed surface feature (RED CIRCLE).
Analysis of various tools from the MTCSWA site indicates the system has become more of an open wave. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear products, current wind shear over 92L is at around 40 kts. Based on the wind shear forecast from the GFS and some other global models, shear magnitude is forecast to remain above 30 kts during the next 48-72 hours. The GFS shear forecast maps seem to indicate upper level winds may relax somewhat in about 4-5 days, as the system makes the turn toward the north. Based on the forecast upper pattern, I feel at the moment, that the NHC is being somewhat generous in the development probability. There could be an outside chance, that once it merges with the approaching cold front, sub-tropical or extratropical development COULD occur, however I believe at this time the chance would be slim, given the totally exposed surface feature.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering maps, I have no change to the forecast path of the system, other than the entire guidance package has shifted left, due to more of a north of due west motion since yesterday evening. 92L is moving WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 24-36 hours, before more of a NW motion begins. Based on forecast steering maps, I concur with the dynamic guidance models, which are clustered at the moment.
92L 12Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
I will continue to monitor INVEST 92L for any significant changes in forecast conditions.
Elsewhere, you may remember in my forecast yesterday evening, I had mentioned pressure heights were forecast to rise over the eastern and SE U.S. in about 5-6 days, and that we should monitor the GOMEX/Caribbean Sea area. Models at this time do not show any organized systems at that time, however the ECMWF Cyclone Probability forecast, and the NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis tracking page are trying to sniff out mischief just north of Panama in about 6-7 days.
ECMWF CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST
My next update will not be until sometime on Saturday.
Elsewhere, I do not expect any Tropical Storm development during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS