EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE AREA / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 21, 2018…12:10 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3

2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS

TOTAL STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 2
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

Greetings everyone!

Let me begin by saying, I didn’t miss the feature off the SC/NC area, as I’ve known for 2 – 3 days we may have something come off the coast.  Just been working late this past week, and haven’t had the time to update.

An area of low pressure has developed along a stalled front draped along the coast from NC, into GA and AL.  Based on what I can make out from various earlier satellite loop imagery, the center of the low is right on the coast at the moment, or has just moved offshore, east of Wilmington, NC.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK)

GOES 16 CONUS LOOP (CLICK)

GOES 16 MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGE

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates a semi-upper level anticyclone over the area, with the GFS wind shear forecast indicating upper level winds may become slightly more favorable regarding development.

CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


However the key to this is going to be whether or not the center of the low remains more over open water, or rides along the coast and then inland, which is the scenario by both the GFS and ECMWF forecast.

GFS FORECAST

ECMWF FORECAST
There is a breif moment in the forecast, for the center to clear the coast and be over open water for a few hours, before moving north and inland over the MD/NJ area.  Based on analysis of the GFS and ECMWF MSLP maps, this will be a short event, with the low coming inland in about 18 hours.  The precipitation forecast indicates portions of MD. may receive in excess of 6.00″ of rainfall over the next 4 days.

GFS 96 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST
ECMWF 96 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST

During the short period over the open water, this low MAY try to transition and MAY gain some tropical characteristics.  However, at this time, the probability would seem fairly low of this becoming a named system, as it is still associated with the front.  IF it can survive the dry air to its west, develop, and lose the frontal characteristics, then the possibility would exist of this being named.  At the moment however, for all intents and purposes, this should remain a gale center and baroclinic system.  With that being said, tropical storm force conditions should be experienced right along the immediate coast and offshore, with winds forecast to be within the 35 – 40 kt range, with higher gusts.

WAVEWATCH SEA HEIGHT AND WIND FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)

Given the forecast onshore wind flow, some minor coastal flooding and possible beach erosion may be experienced along the MD and NJ coasts.  I cannot rule out the possibility of power outages, and maybe some uprooting of trees, given the combination of heavy rainfall and the higher wind gusts.  You can view any watches, warnings, and statements for your particular area, by clicking on the NWS Hazard and Warnings map I have posted, then clicking on your area of interest.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

MID ATLANTIC RADAR LOOP (CLICK)

Elsewhere, the remainder of the tropics remain quiet.  The SAL continues to blast the Atlantic basin, with dust forecast to continue during the next 5 days.

SKIRON DUST LOAD FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION CONTROLS)

Water vapor imagery shows just how dry the atmosphere is over the Atlantic basin.

GOES 16 FULL DISC WATER VAPOR IMAGE

WATER VAPOR UPPER AND MID LEVEL

Based on analysis of MSLP and MSLP anomaly maps, and the dust forecast, I do not expect anything to develop in the Atlantic/MDR region during the next 10 days.  Based on the same analysis using both the GFS and ECMWF, it appears the Azores / Bermuda ridge begins to breakdown at the beginning of Aug, through the first week.  The forecast doesn’t extend out beyond that at the moment.

GFS

ECMWF

Analysis of the current MJO filtered VP 200 (Velocity Potential/200 MB) and Real Time CFS (Climate Forecast System) Tropical Mode Projections suggests we could potentially see an upswing in convective activity with a favorable signal of the MJO moving through our portion of the world, beginning around Aug. 04.  Based on this, should this forecast be correct, I would expect to see some type of increase in convective activity by the end of the first week of Aug., to the beginning of the second week (pretty much as climatology dictates).

MJO FILTERED VP 200 FORECAST

(MJO filtered VP200 anomalies for the current state, for the week 1 forecast, and for the week 2 forecast.
Cold colors are representative of a more favorable state over the Atlantic for tropical cyclogenesis (typically after the passage),
and warm colors represent a less favorable state for tropical cyclogenesis.

CFS (Climate Forecast System) Tropical Mode Projections (Blue shows Active Convection, Red shows Suppressed Convection)

HURRICANE SEASON CLIMATOLOGY


I will try to have updates again Sunday (late) and on Monday.  I work late again Tues through Sat., so my next update thereafter will be next Sunday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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