WINTER WEATHER BRIEF…ISSUED DEC. 06, 2017…5:00 P.M. EST

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

Cold Arctic air continues to push south, with a cold front approaching, and affecting the Florida peninsula by tomorrow.

Looking at the global modeling, by day 5 (120 hours from 12Z), freezing temperatures will reach as far south as the northern one third of the Florida peninsula.  The majority of the country will see freezing to below freezing temperatures.  Temperatures appear to fluctuate and modify back and forth somewhat through to day 10, however, based on the current Arctic Oscillation forecast, much colder temperatures could hang on to the majority of the U.S. for possibly 10 days or so.  Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a powerful low developing off the east coast, with the ECMWF in much closer to the coast (i.e. coastal storm…Nor’easter).  The boating public should remain in port until the passage.

AO FORECAST

ECMWF

GFS


I am basing this pretty much on the premise, that 50 mb temperature and pressure anomalies (Stratospheric anomalies) indicate Stratospheric warming and higher pressure anomalies may remain in place over the Arctic circle through 10 -14 dyes, depending on which model is correct.  Stratospheric warming and higher 50 mb pressure anomalies indicate a negative phase of the AO, which allows colder, Arctic air to spill south.

50 MB (STRATOSPHERE) TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES

GFS

ECMWF

The following maps are forecast accumulated snowfall totals, and projected precipitation types during various portions of the forecast period.

ECMWF DAYS 7 AND 10

GFS DAYS 7 AND 10

ECMWF 24 AND 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TYPE

GFS 24 AND 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TYPE

GFS AND ECMWF MSLP FORECAST

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK MAP, THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

As a reminder, during this cold spell, bring your pets indoors, and take care of your plants.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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