TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF BERMUDA…ISSUED MAY 18, 2019…9:35 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings everyone!,

Based on analysis of the global models this evening, an area of low pressure is expected to from a small inverted trof that develops south of the current ridge over the Atlantic, over the next few days.  Based on model analysis, and information contained in the NHC TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook), a closed low is expected to develop possibly very late Monday evening, or during the day on Tuesday.  The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability for development during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NOAA CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK ON IMAGE)

ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MAPS


Currently, upper level winds are not favorable for development due to wind shear, however based on the current wind shear tendency map, shear has been reducing over the past 24 hours.  Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, I concur at this time with the NHC increasing the probability of development to 40%.  The current shear forecast, both from the GFS and ECMWF indicate the upper level pattern to become somewhat favorable, with the suspect area coming under the influence of an upper level ridge, due to it lying east of an upper level trof.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

WIND SHEAR TENDENCY MAP

ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST SHEAR MAPS

The current 10m (10 meter…33ft) wind speed forecast still indicates the area (low) to develop below sub-tropical depression status.  I am currently classifying the development, should it occur, as sub-tropical, given the strongest forecast winds are removed from the center by approximately 60 – 100 miles.

As this begins to take shape, analysis of the GFS and ECMWF, which have been consistent on all runs yesterday and today, indicate if the low develops, it should begin to move toward the NNE, toward Bermuda, and then become absorbed by a trailing trof in association with a mid latitude cyclone (RED AND WHITE ARROW) to the north of the area, over Nova Scotia, by late Tuesday evening/early morning Wednesday.  This forecast motion will be due to the low being trapped between a weakness in a forecast ridge over the E. US., and a ridge in the C. Atlantic, based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps.

ECMWF

I will continue to monitor the area for the development, and for any significant changes, should they occur.  I will update again when warranted. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions this season by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed and safe week!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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