Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0
Good day all!
Satellite loop imagery this morning indicates a little quieter, overall picture.
The surface trof of low pressure still persists in the GOMEX this morning. You can definitely see rotation going on, however there is no vorticity showing at the surface right now. Believe it or not, this may be what is left of Bret.
This disturbed weather is currently under the influence of 30-40 kts of wind shear, and the current GFS wind shear forecast calls for wind shear to pretty much remain over the Gulf during the next 48 – 72 hours. Based on lack of convection, lack of vorticity at the surface, and the shear forecast, I do not expect development from this area.
GFS GOMEX WIND SHEAR FORECAST
The area has moved more toward the central Gulf, and current steering shows this should move rather slowly as steering currents are somewhat weak. Forecast steering maps indicate a continued WNW motion, and this trof could enhance rainfall probabilities over the south and central TX coast in about 2-3 days.
Elsewhere, the tropical wave which was near the Lesser Antilles yesterday has pretty much become diffuse. The wave near South America still has a small upper level anticyclone over it, however is encountering a more stable environment due to the patch of African dust north of it.
This wave should be running into the South American coast within the next 2 days. Other than this, not too much going on within the ITCZ at the moment, or off the African coast for that matter. Global models do not indicate any development over the next 7 – 10 days, with the exception of the CMC GGEM. I am still discounting this, as wind shear is forecast to be in place over the location.
AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGES (EUMETSAT AND NRLMRY)
I have no change to the extended forecast yet, as conditions are forecast to remain the same during the next 7-10 days. Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, the MJO forecast, and 200 mb vertical velocities forecast, I am not expecting development during this time period. Analysis of TPW (Total Precipitable Water) forecast over Africa, indicates a reduction of TPW over the next 5 days.
However, careful analysis of the MJO forecast does seem to show the favorable signal of the MJO to progress eastward as week get into week 2. Based on this, and analysis of some of the MJO phase diagram forecasts, we could see a more favorable signal over the GOMEX and W. Caribbean OOA July 12-14. This would coincide with the 200 mb vertical velocities forecast.
200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES FORECAST (INITIAL, DAYS 5, 10, 14 AND 16
GFS 7 DAY WIND SHEAR FORECAST ATLANTIC
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS