SPECIAL SYNOPSIS…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L…AUG. 24, 2013…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The northern portion of disturbed weather I was monitoring yesterday in the NW Caribbean, had moved through the Gulf of Honduras, and is currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC in Miami has assigned a MEDIUM (30%) probability of this area becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Information based on the ATCF FTP site had the center of this disturbance located near 17.0N…89.5W at 12Z this morning.  The following information was available:

Maximum Wind: 25 MPH
Barometric Pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Moving: W near 15 mph

Earlier satellite loop imagery indicates the center was located at he position provided, at that time.  However, close analysis of recent loops using Visible, RGB and Shortwave (IR2), appears to indicate a center reformation may be taking place somewhat further to the NW.

INVEST 95L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on the premise of a possible center reformation, and current and forecast steering layers maps, I have two scenarios for this:  IF the center remains on track from the previous reported position, this disturbance should remain on pretty much a westward track over the next few hours, with a slight turn toward the WNW once entering the BOC.  This would pretty much inhibit any further or significant development due to the proximity of land.

SHOULD the center become located closer to, or under the area of heavy convection, this disturbance could have the tendency to have more of sharp WNW once it enters the BOC, as current steering indicates a slight weakness which would “tug” this a little more northward, which could allow the disturbance to be caught up in a more WNW flow, based on forecast steering.  Should this option occur, we may see this spin up a little quicker, as upper level winds may remain conducive for development, along with moderate TCHP values in the BOC and central GOMEX.  To make a long story short, the further north this enters in the BOC, the better chance this could become a Tropical Depression or slim probability of Tropical Storm status.  This doesn’t pose a threat to the U.S. right now, based on either scenario.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

TCHP

Elsewhere, the trof of low pressure that has been causing thunderstorm activity in the extreme northern GOMEX near Louisiana and Mississippi, continues to move toward the west.  Albeit it seems impressive on satellite loop images, there is currently no surface circulation noted.  This has a very low chance of development, as it should be running into land within the next 12-18 hours.  I will however continue to monitor this for any significant changes.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

Enjoy your weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER