TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 23, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Well, I really can’t say active, however we are slightly more active as of this morning’s analysis. Oh, I’m typing in bold to make the text easier to read…any feedback will be appreciated.

The small area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring in the GOMEX, just south of the Mobile, AL. area continues to produce an area of heavy thunderstorms.  The NHC in Miami, must be as board as some of us mets, as they have designated a LOW (10%) probability of this area becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Upper level winds are not conducive at this time, and become marginal in about 12 hours.  I really don’t expect any development of this, before it runs into LA in about 24 hours.  Regardless, this may bring heavy rain to southern portions of LA over the next 24-36 hours, and possibly portions of eastern TX thereafter.  I will continue to monitor this as it moves toward the west near 10-15 mph.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The area of disturbed weather I’ve been watching in the Caribbean, is now beginning to interact with Nicaragua and Honduras.  I am not expecting development of this, but will continue to monitor the area for any energy that may be left in the central Caribbean, or should the northern portion reach the Gulf of Honduras.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, I am going to monitor a 1010 mb low just south of the Cape Verde islands over the next few days for possible slow development as it moves to the west.  Currently, upper level winds are slightly conducive for slow development of this area, and are forecast to become a little more conducive within the next 24 hours.

EUMETSAT IMAGERY LOOP
EUMETSAT_MSG_IR108Color-westernAfricaTROPLOW

I know it keeps being repeated, however activity may be picking up very soon, as the MJO Multivariate Index shows the MJO now coming into Octant 7, and should be in Octant 8 in about 5 days.  I had a question on all the dry air we’ve seen, and I have done a little bit of thought on this, and I think what we are seeing with the dry air, other than the abundance of SAL we have seen, it appears to be a natural occurrence from just the A/B high. My take is, since we haven’t seen a real active signal from the MJO, which if it is moving in a normal pattern, seems to offset the affects of high pressure by sending moisture into the atmosphere. It would appear the lack of the signal allows for high pressure to act naturally (sinking air, which is termed subsidence). As the air sinks, it compresses and warms. This dries out the atmosphere. The high had been fairly strong up until about a week ago. If you notice in the water vapor pic, there is not as much orange as there was, especially in the MDR between 7.5N to 20N. Notice the moisture starting to come back over Africa, and the W. Caribbean. A sign the MJO should be on the way back.

ATLANTIC WIDE WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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14 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 23, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Hi everyone. Just looking at the latest , moving vis satellite of the Gomex, and it appears to me a tropical entity is forming right now in the Gulf, about 100 miles or so Sw of the mouth of the Mississippi River Delta. It looks to be “spinning up” quite fast. Dellamom, if you should read this be aware. These storms sometimes can spin-up quite fast this time of year. I hope I’m wrong about this, but be careful.

  2. Capt Bruce (ret.) says:

    Hello Chief ! Part of my disability is that my vision is poor. I appreciate you going with the bold, but also agree that there might be a better font choice out there that would make the print more
    legible that just an all bold print. I’m not complaining Chief. I have made do with making changes at my end. I simply made a comment to your Request for Comment, All my best to you and your family ! Bruce in Cape Coral, FL

  3. originallt says:

    Morning Storm and everyone here, I see we have an invest at about 17N and 89.5W. But the area of disturbance weather at the mouth of the Mississippi, may be of more importance to Dellamom. It looks like it may be drifting Northward. That could bring a lot of rain to the New Orleans area. Hopefully it’s too close to the coast to develop.

  4. Elliot Lisak says:

    Hey Monty,

    Your point is excellent “That being said…your method has worked just fine…gets the point across…easy (at least for me) to read ( and me to). It’s the message that matters…not the media…and yours is one of the best Senior Chief!!”

    Monty your right on point …. the message that matters!

    Thank you Chief for allowing us to express ourselves. Were else but in the U.S.A. can we be what we want to be without restrictions.

    God Bless America, God Bless Senior Chief ….

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…late as usual. Thanks so much for your answer…it makes total sense. Bold is OK. However…I’m with Elliot…I have done quite a bit of graphic artwork…font is everything. That being said…your method has worked just fine…gets the point across…easy (at least for me) to read. It’s the message that matters…not the media…and yours is one of the best Senior Chief!!

  6. Thanks for the feedback gang.

  7. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks storm. Bold is fine with me. If not bold then have the print a little on the bigger size.

  8. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. Bold is fine with me.

  9. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks for the update. It is a tough season so far to gage. As for the Font I like the bold when reading from my phone!
    Mike

  10. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Good explanation of why the season has been quiet–so far,up till now!. The bold font is fine with me.

  11. thanks Storm..I like the bold, but didnt have a problem the other way either.

  12. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Morning,

    Thank you for the insight this a.m.

    As far as the font. I personally have no problem with the size … bolding everything is more than I like to read. The size for us that are older can appreciate its size it allows us to take off our reading glasses. Bolding font’s are usually utilized to get a few words or a statement. Someone in your audience might recommend a different font. If not my daughter is a Professional Illustrator can give you some choices based on your need.

    Let me know.

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