Good day everyone!
Well, I really can’t say active, however we are slightly more active as of this morning’s analysis. Oh, I’m typing in bold to make the text easier to read…any feedback will be appreciated.
The small area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring in the GOMEX, just south of the Mobile, AL. area continues to produce an area of heavy thunderstorms. The NHC in Miami, must be as board as some of us mets, as they have designated a LOW (10%) probability of this area becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Upper level winds are not conducive at this time, and become marginal in about 12 hours. I really don’t expect any development of this, before it runs into LA in about 24 hours. Regardless, this may bring heavy rain to southern portions of LA over the next 24-36 hours, and possibly portions of eastern TX thereafter. I will continue to monitor this as it moves toward the west near 10-15 mph.
The area of disturbed weather I’ve been watching in the Caribbean, is now beginning to interact with Nicaragua and Honduras. I am not expecting development of this, but will continue to monitor the area for any energy that may be left in the central Caribbean, or should the northern portion reach the Gulf of Honduras.
Elsewhere, I am going to monitor a 1010 mb low just south of the Cape Verde islands over the next few days for possible slow development as it moves to the west. Currently, upper level winds are slightly conducive for slow development of this area, and are forecast to become a little more conducive within the next 24 hours.
I know it keeps being repeated, however activity may be picking up very soon, as the MJO Multivariate Index shows the MJO now coming into Octant 7, and should be in Octant 8 in about 5 days. I had a question on all the dry air we’ve seen, and I have done a little bit of thought on this, and I think what we are seeing with the dry air, other than the abundance of SAL we have seen, it appears to be a natural occurrence from just the A/B high. My take is, since we haven’t seen a real active signal from the MJO, which if it is moving in a normal pattern, seems to offset the affects of high pressure by sending moisture into the atmosphere. It would appear the lack of the signal allows for high pressure to act naturally (sinking air, which is termed subsidence). As the air sinks, it compresses and warms. This dries out the atmosphere. The high had been fairly strong up until about a week ago. If you notice in the water vapor pic, there is not as much orange as there was, especially in the MDR between 7.5N to 20N. Notice the moisture starting to come back over Africa, and the W. Caribbean. A sign the MJO should be on the way back.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)