SPECIAL UPDATE…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 24, 2013…ISSUED 8:10 P.M. EDT

Good evening everyone!

Having analyzed various satellite loop images of various channels, I have relocated the center of INVEST 95L a little further to the NW of the last position provided.  Based on the current satellite loop imagery, the center appears to have relocated near Latitude 18.5N…Longitude 94.8W, and appears to have taken on a more WNW heading over the past few hours.  The NHC has just  upgraded this to a 50% (MEDIUM) probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

INVEST 95 L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


I believe this upgrade may be the result of the center relocation, as the orange circle on the map is close to where I have relocated the center.  Vorticity maps also tend to back up this theory of a center relocation based on the strongest values further north and west.

925 MB VORTICITY MAP

CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY MAP


Given the center is further north, and to the right, this will change the track slightly, and based on the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, I concur at the moment with the 18Z Dynamic Model guidance, preferring the TVCN / TVCC consensus models, except further north by about 1.0 to 1.5 degrees.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INVEST 95L
18zatcfearlyinvest1best95L

The disturbance should enter the BOC late tonight, or very early in the morning.  After this occurs, based on the very warm water and TCHP, along with a good probability upper level winds will favor development, I expect the disturbance to organize at a possible steady rate, however nothing rapid.

Based on forecast steering, and how developed this system becomes, the center could come ashore from south of Poza Rica, possibly as far north as Tampico.  Interests along the south and central Mexican coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance closely.

For residents of Texas, this does not appear to be a U.S. threat at the moment, unless steering currents were to take a unexpected change.

I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes to forecast parameters, and will have an update sometime tomorrow.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SPECIAL UPDATE…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AUG. 24, 2013…ISSUED 8:10 P.M. EDT

  1. Ramiro says:

    Thanks Mr Storm for your time. Have a great day tomorrow.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks again Storm.

  3. Monty says:

    Damn Storm…you pegged this thing again!! It looks like Mexico gets a Fiesta from this one…according to guidance. Thank you so much Storm for your total dedication to this…very appreciated!! If you watched the national news Thursday night and saw coverage of the Denver hailstorm…the footage is right where I work…about 300 ft away…at Ken Caryl Pkwy and Shaffer Pkwy. I live 3 miles away to the North…pea to marble sized hail…no accumulation…gotta love Supercells!!

  4. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

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