Good evening everyone!
Having analyzed various satellite loop images of various channels, I have relocated the center of INVEST 95L a little further to the NW of the last position provided. Based on the current satellite loop imagery, the center appears to have relocated near Latitude 18.5N…Longitude 94.8W, and appears to have taken on a more WNW heading over the past few hours. The NHC has just upgraded this to a 50% (MEDIUM) probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
I believe this upgrade may be the result of the center relocation, as the orange circle on the map is close to where I have relocated the center. Vorticity maps also tend to back up this theory of a center relocation based on the strongest values further north and west.
CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY MAP
Given the center is further north, and to the right, this will change the track slightly, and based on the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, I concur at the moment with the 18Z Dynamic Model guidance, preferring the TVCN / TVCC consensus models, except further north by about 1.0 to 1.5 degrees.
18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INVEST 95L
The disturbance should enter the BOC late tonight, or very early in the morning. After this occurs, based on the very warm water and TCHP, along with a good probability upper level winds will favor development, I expect the disturbance to organize at a possible steady rate, however nothing rapid.
Based on forecast steering, and how developed this system becomes, the center could come ashore from south of Poza Rica, possibly as far north as Tampico. Interests along the south and central Mexican coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance closely.
For residents of Texas, this does not appear to be a U.S. threat at the moment, unless steering currents were to take a unexpected change.
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes to forecast parameters, and will have an update sometime tomorrow.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)