Good day, everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER CENTRAL VA/SRN MD…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO SRN AR AND NRN LA…
Due to the incident yesterday with tornadic activity, which appears to have been a surprise, I hope the following map may help. This is the STP output from the SPC SREF model. The dark orange areas indicate a 90% prob of a strong tornado or so should tornado activity be a a factor today.
Current and forecast wind shear products indicate a zone of strong westerly wind shear to remain in place over the Atlantic and Caribbean over the next 7-10 days.
GFS 180 HOUR SHEAR FORECAST
The GFS still indicates upward motion of the MJO to be in place through the end of the month, over the Caribbean Sea. Although models do not indicate any mischief, strong ridging forecast to be over the eastern portion of the U.S. could be a setup for possible situational development, although I am not looking for this at the moment.
SST Anomalies have leveled off a bit over the Equatorial EPAC, however the cooler anomalies have spread out somewhat. The Atlantic MDR has cooled slightly, however as we get into a forecast negative NAO, I expect this to recover.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!