SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…MAY 16, 2013…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day, everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER CENTRAL VA/SRN MD…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO SRN AR AND NRN LA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Due to the incident yesterday with tornadic activity, which appears to have been a surprise, I hope the following map may help.  This is the STP output from the SPC SREF model.  The dark orange areas indicate a 90% prob of a strong tornado or so should tornado activity be a a factor today.

SREF STP >3 PROBABILITY MAP

TROPICAL ATLANTIC

A Tropical Wave is is still present, moving toward the west at about 10 mph.  The wave can be seen in satellite imagery, displaying a low amplitude inverted”v” signature.
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ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Current and forecast wind shear products indicate a zone of strong westerly wind shear to remain in place over the Atlantic and Caribbean over the next 7-10 days.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT FROM CIMSS

GFS 180 HOUR SHEAR FORECAST

The GFS still indicates upward motion of the MJO to be in place through the end of the month, over the Caribbean Sea.  Although models do not indicate any mischief, strong ridging forecast to be over the eastern portion of the U.S. could be a setup for possible situational development, although I am not looking for this at the moment.

GFS MJO FORECAST MAP

SST Anomalies have leveled off a bit over the Equatorial EPAC, however the cooler anomalies have spread out somewhat.  The Atlantic MDR has cooled slightly, however as we get into a forecast negative NAO, I expect this to recover.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALIES

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…MAY 16, 2013…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Yes, more of an East Coast threat or yes, the GOM should be more on an alert?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like Alvin’s going to flop. I’m with TexasHurricane…what’s up for the GOMEX?

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm, I think before you said you were thinking more of an East Coast threat this season. Is this still your thinking or should we by the GOM be more on alert?

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