SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…POSSIBLE DAY 3 AND 4 SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…MAY 17, 2013…ISSUED 4:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Full plate with a possible widespread Severe Weather Event for Saturday into Monday, and this synopsis will exclude the Tropical Outlook to address the forecast upcoming event.

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM NERN WY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD…OVER PARTS OF MS AND AL…AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Today’s main threat is forecast to consist of Damaging Winds and Hail.  Tornado threat in the risk areas is currently 2%.

SPC upgraded tomorrow’s outlook.  The SPC has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS/SWRN NEB…

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM EXTREME NWRN TX INTO SERN ND/NWRN MN…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Based on the information contained in the outlook alone, as this was updated after analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software was analyzed, I HIGHLY STRESS, residents within the hatched and 45% area on the probability map monitor this situation closely, as a forecast SBCAPE of 4000-4000+ j/kg is outlined for the area.  Based on this, significant severe weather may be experienced, and could lead to a PDS (Potentially Dangerous Situation).  This setup, as mentioned by SPC, could be potentially supportive of Tornadoes.     With the SBCAPE that extreme,  the atmosphere will be very unstable…based on this, and until I can analyze conditions tomorrow morning, I cannot rule out strong tornadoes in the hatched area.  I will try to be on as much as I can tomorrow to keep the site updated…in the event I am not around, the maps I will post will update automatically.

SPC INDICATES DAY 3 AND DAY 4 could pose a SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.  I will be working each one as they become the Day 1 Outlook.

SPC DAY 3 AND DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS

I had the chance to run parameters on Day 3, and the following map, based on analyzed information, indicates where the greatest chance for severe weather should occur (RED), greatest strong tornado prob (PINK HATCH)  between 2:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.  Residents within the blue outline may be at risk for the greatest prob for a severe weather event.  I will try to have more on this tomorrow.
usastatescapsOUTBREAK
Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…POSSIBLE DAY 3 AND 4 SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…MAY 17, 2013…ISSUED 4:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Got some Mid-West friends on the grid…SPC has put a medium risk up…going to notify the gang. Thanks for the updates my friend!!

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