Good day everyone!
Full plate with a possible widespread Severe Weather Event for Saturday into Monday, and this synopsis will exclude the Tropical Outlook to address the forecast upcoming event.
The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM NERN WY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD…OVER PARTS OF MS AND AL…AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX…
Today’s main threat is forecast to consist of Damaging Winds and Hail. Tornado threat in the risk areas is currently 2%.
SPC upgraded tomorrow’s outlook. The SPC has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS/SWRN NEB…
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM EXTREME NWRN TX INTO SERN ND/NWRN MN…
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Based on the information contained in the outlook alone, as this was updated after analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software was analyzed, I HIGHLY STRESS, residents within the hatched and 45% area on the probability map monitor this situation closely, as a forecast SBCAPE of 4000-4000+ j/kg is outlined for the area. Based on this, significant severe weather may be experienced, and could lead to a PDS (Potentially Dangerous Situation). This setup, as mentioned by SPC, could be potentially supportive of Tornadoes. With the SBCAPE that extreme, the atmosphere will be very unstable…based on this, and until I can analyze conditions tomorrow morning, I cannot rule out strong tornadoes in the hatched area. I will try to be on as much as I can tomorrow to keep the site updated…in the event I am not around, the maps I will post will update automatically.
SPC INDICATES DAY 3 AND DAY 4 could pose a SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. I will be working each one as they become the Day 1 Outlook.
I had the chance to run parameters on Day 3, and the following map, based on analyzed information, indicates where the greatest chance for severe weather should occur (RED), greatest strong tornado prob (PINK HATCH) between 2:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Residents within the blue outline may be at risk for the greatest prob for a severe weather event. I will try to have more on this tomorrow.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)