SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MAY 01, 2013…ISSUED 1:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Posted on May 1, 2013 by palmharborforecastcenter

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL TX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

All pertinent information cane be retrieved from the SPC website, by clicking on the above map, and is contained on the left side bar of the site (i.e. Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, NWS hazards, radar, etc.).

An area of disturbed weather, an MCS, is located just offshore of the Tampa Bay area.  This is associated with a general large trof area across the Gulf region, and Western Atlantic.  I n the last few frames of satellite imagery, this may be taking on the characteristics of an MCV, as some very slight rotation is noted.  However, wind shear is extremely high at the moment, albeit the current upper divergence and lower convergence maps show some weak divergence aloft, and moderate convergence at the surface.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP

CIMSS DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE MAPS

Analysis of Global models indicates a lack of development from this, with the exception of two, which indicate a large area of weak low pressure over and east of Florida.  Albeit I am not looking for development of this area, I will continue to monitor this system as it enters the Atlantic side, for any possible chance of sub-tropical development.  It is noted that wind shear from the 850-500 MB level may be weak enough to support a shallow system.

Have a great day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MAY 01, 2013…ISSUED 1:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:
    May 1, 2013 at 7:37 pm

    This is getting old…

    0440 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSE AURORA 39.67N 104.79W
    05/01/2013 M6.8 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0434 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 NNW CHATFIELD RESERVO 39.60N 105.09W
    05/01/2013 M7.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0425 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 ENE ASPEN PARK 39.53N 105.23W
    05/01/2013 E8.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0419 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW LOUISVILLE 39.99N 105.15W
    05/01/2013 M8.2 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0345 PM SNOW 3 NNE BAILEY 39.43N 105.44W
    05/01/2013 M7.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0345 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 S FORT COLLINS 40.50N 105.07W
    05/01/2013 M10.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0330 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 ENE FORT COLLINS 40.57N 105.04W
    05/01/2013 M16.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1.45 SWE 1.67 INCHES WATER TOTAL TO INCLUDE RAIN

    0215 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW LOUISVILLE 39.99N 105.15W
    05/01/2013 M8.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0210 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSE ESTES PARK 40.34N 105.51W
    05/01/2013 M16.7 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0210 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 SSE PINECLIFFE 39.88N 105.39W
    05/01/2013 M10.7 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 W NORTHGLENN 39.91N 104.99W
    05/01/2013 M6.7 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSW BOULDER 40.00N 105.27W
    05/01/2013 M8.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

    DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH CENTER

    0140 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 NW FORT COLLINS 40.59N 105.13W
    05/01/2013 M11.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0120 PM SNOW 2 SSE TABERNASH 39.95N 105.84W
    05/01/2013 E10.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0115 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW FORT COLLINS 40.55N 105.05W
    05/01/2013 M10.2 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0115 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 WSW ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.91N 105.34W
    05/01/2013 M9.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0101 PM HEAVY SNOW GENESEE 39.69N 105.27W
    05/01/2013 M9.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0100 PM SNOW 2 NE FORT COLLINS 40.58N 105.04W
    05/01/2013 E10.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    BROKEN TREE BRANCHES UP TO 6 INCH DIAMETER CAUSING POWER
    OUTAGES.

    0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.62N 105.34W
    05/01/2013 M6.8 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1230 PM HEAVY SNOW BERGEN PARK 39.69N 105.36W
    05/01/2013 M6.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1230 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 E BOULDER 40.03N 105.16W
    05/01/2013 M7.9 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1230 PM SNOW 3 WSW CONIFER 39.50N 105.35W
    05/01/2013 M5.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1230 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
    05/01/2013 M12.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1205 PM SNOW N LONGMONT 40.17N 105.11W
    05/01/2013 M5.3 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1146 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 SE BROOKVALE 39.59N 105.37W
    05/01/2013 M6.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1120 AM SNOW 2 ESE CASTLE ROCK 39.37N 104.82W
    05/01/2013 M3.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1120 AM SNOW N KEN CARYL 39.58N 105.11W
    05/01/2013 M4.2 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1100 AM SNOW 3 NNE ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.97N 105.26W
    05/01/2013 M4.6 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1100 AM HEAVY SNOW FORT COLLINS 40.56N 105.07W
    05/01/2013 M11.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1040 AM SNOW 3 N CONIFER 39.56N 105.30W
    05/01/2013 M5.1 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1029 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 SW LOVELAND 40.36N 105.15W
    05/01/2013 M10.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1028 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 ENE FORT COLLINS 40.57N 105.04W
    05/01/2013 M15.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1015 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
    05/01/2013 M4.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1010 AM SNOW 3 SW WINDSOR 40.45N 104.95W
    05/01/2013 M4.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1000 AM SNOW 5 E BOULDER 40.03N 105.16W
    05/01/2013 M5.6 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1000 AM SNOW 2 NW STRASBURG 39.76N 104.33W
    05/01/2013 M3.5 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0950 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 SE DRAKE 40.37N 105.24W
    05/01/2013 M6.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0950 AM SNOW AURORA 39.70N 104.81W
    05/01/2013 M3.3 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0935 AM SNOW SHAWNEE 39.42N 105.55W
    05/01/2013 M5.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1 INCH PAST HOUR

    0900 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
    05/01/2013 M5.8 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0900 AM SNOW GENESEE 39.69N 105.27W
    05/01/2013 M4.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0845 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
    05/01/2013 M6.3 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    Reply
  2. Monty says:
    May 1, 2013 at 3:23 pm

    Thanks Storm. Looks like a preview of coming attractions. We’re getting a foot of snow in DEN.

    Reply
  3. originallt says:
    May 1, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    Thanks Storm, yeah, I can see too in the last few frames , a turning action in the clouds, I think you called it,–looks like a MCV

    Reply

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