Good morning everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from ERN IA TO ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME NW IL AND SW WI…
Biggest threat again appears to be hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. Please refer to the following linked maps for up to date, real time information.
Analysis of the Global Models indicate a fair agreement again of some type of low developing over or near Florida by this weekend. A couple indicate a possible sub-tropical low, while the remainder indicate a normal low.
Again, Real time evaluation of the situation may be the best solution to see if this does indeed pan out, as in addition to the current model solutions, the NCEP 500 mb mean anomaly map has been consistent now for the past 72-96 hours in indicating a significant lowering of pressures around the area, along with the majority of the Dynamic MJO Index forecast models showing weak to moderate upward motion in Quadrant 1 at the same time.
I will continue to monitor this and update as necessary.
Have a safe and blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)