SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…APR. 29, 2013…ISSUED 12:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good morning everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from ERN IA TO ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME NW IL AND SW WI…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Biggest threat again appears to be hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.  Please refer to the following linked maps for up to date, real time information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

THE TROPICS:

Analysis of the Global Models indicate a fair agreement again of some type of low developing over or near Florida by this weekend.  A couple indicate a possible sub-tropical low, while the remainder indicate a normal low.

ECMWF

NAVGEM

CMC GGEM

UKMET

Again, Real time evaluation of the situation may be the best solution to see if this does indeed pan out, as in addition to the current model solutions, the NCEP 500 mb mean anomaly map has been consistent now for the past 72-96 hours in indicating a significant lowering of pressures around the area, along with the majority of the Dynamic MJO Index forecast models showing weak to moderate upward motion in Quadrant 1 at the same time.

500 MB MEAN ANOMALY

I will continue to monitor this and update as necessary.

Have a safe and blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…APR. 29, 2013…ISSUED 12:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, looks like you will be hit hard by that rain area coming in from the Gulf.

  2. originallt says:

    Look out Monty, here comes the SNOW again–this time in MAY!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Looks like up by me in Sw CT. it will be very dry here the next 6 days. wouldn’t be surprised to see some red flag warnings issued soon.

  4. javier valdes says:

    hi storm miami weather office think not thing going form by end of week off fl their keep droping rain chance by weekend because their say high going build bring dry weather (THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEVELOPING
    LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS
    SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES…WHILE THE OTHER
    UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
    WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
    SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IN
    TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
    NORTH. SO WILL SHOW A GRADUAL LOWERING OF POPS LATE THIS WEEK
    INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL OVER THE INTERIOR
    AREAS EACH DAY…DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING
    INLAND EACH DAY.)

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