Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
DAY 2 OUTLOOK PROBABILITY
I am issuing this, as I will not be available to issue a day 1 forecast for tomorrow. This will however give you a general idea of what you may expect in the risk areas.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 2 outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA…
…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS / GUSTS
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM, and SPC SREF models, the forecast indicates a marginal to moderately unstable environment at the moment for tomorrow. Based on analysis of the outlook, a shortwave trough will eject from N. Mexico and into the southern and central plains by tomorrow. It was noted in analysis this morning, that a weak to moderate cap should be in place over the region, but given the forecast parameters, the combination of increasing CAPE, lift, and deep layer shear, along with the area coming under the front left exit region of the jet, and strong LLJ (Low Level Jet), should overcome the cap by the afternoon. Based on analysis of the forecast indices, some scattered strong / severe thunderstorms could occur, and may contain isolated large hail, along with some tornadoes as the main severe threat, late afternoon into the overnight hours. Modest low level moisture could be a limiting factor, however given the forecast SRH and shear, I like the SPC tornado outline. Based on analysis of various parameters and indices from the models mentioned, and the current SPC outlook, initiation of this activity should occur Sunday afternoon into early evening, with strongest activity appearing top occur from (20Z – 03Z). It is noted there were some differences in the model output between the NAM / SREF and the HRRR. Upon analysis this morning, the information available to me was only through the NAM 3km model, as the HRRR had only run out to 03Z this morning As always, one is to be cautioned, that conditions could change on tomorrow mornings runs, and indices could differ somewhat. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning. Bear in mind, indices recorded below are at the time of peak intensity. Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
SRH 0 – 1km: 300 – 400 m2/s2
SRH 0 – 3km: 300 – 500 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 400 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -5
STP: 1 to 5
SCP: 1 to 9
0 -6 km SHEAR: 45 – 65 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 49F – 54F
EHI: 1.3 – 3.1
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 51 – 52C
K INDEX: 27 – 28C
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM3 km model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, the greater the probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 24 FEB. – 1:00 a.m. 25 FEB.)
NAM STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 24 FEB. – 1:00 a.m. 25 FEB.)
SPC SREF STP MEAN
PROBABILITY OF STP >1
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
Again, I will not be available to update on this situation, so please visit the SPC homepage link above for updates, as well as the NWS map below.
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER 