Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I am back in the office. The trip my wife and I just took was planned back near the beginning of Feb., when we first visited my mom in the hospital. We had scheduled to leave on MAR. 03. to visit her again. We left as planned. Unfortunately, I did not get to see my mother again as she passed away late that Saturday evening on MAR. 02 from stage 4 pancreatic cancer.
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the current day 1 outlook: FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA…
…SPC SUMMARY…
A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
HAIL PROBABILITY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, NAM model, HRRR model, and SPC SREF, information derived from forecast indices indicate all severe threats are probable. Analysis of some of the forecast soundings did show an increase in indices from yesterday, however discrepancies were noted between some of the readings, and what is contained in the SPC summary. Based on the indices and parameters (averaged between the NAM and HRRR) and based on the time of peak activity, isolated large hail is possible, based on the moderately steep mid level lapse rate, lifted indices, and forecast CAPE values. Deep layer and effective shear, along with strongly veering winds (Southerly at the surface, to westerly at 250 mb) and SRH of 250 – 400 will be favorable for supercell development, and some tornadoes. Though CAPE values indicate only a moderately unstable environment, borderline lifted indices and energy helicity index values could indicate the possibility of an isolated EF2 tornado in the strongest supercells. SPC indicates multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms today. The strongest of the indices should occur around the time of maximum daytime heating, and weaken after sunset. As the system moves into southern AL., indices restrengthen to moderate level over isolated areas by 6:00 a.m. CST. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning.
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 250 – 400 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 150 – 250 m2/s2
L. I.: -2 to -4
STP: 2 – 6
SCP: 3 – 7
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 65 – 70 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.0C
DEWPOINT: 66F – 73F
EHI: 2.0 – 3.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 46 – 51C
K INDEX: 33 – 35C
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model. Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:
NAM SCP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 08 MAR. – 6:00 a.m. CST 09 MAR.)
NAM STP FORECAST (1:00 p.m. 08 MAR. – 6:00 a.m. CST 09 MAR.)
SREF STP >1 PROBABILITY NOON CST
3:00 P.M. CST
3:00 A.M. CST 09 MAR.
6:00 A.M. CST
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER 