HURRICANE SANDY SPECIAL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 27, 2012…ISSUED 3:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good afternoon everyone!

Sandy is still a hurricane!  The following information was available and is contained in the tracking map, as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory:

GLOBAL TRACKS SANDY TRACKING MAP

 

SANDY SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The intermediate advisory is out, but the maps do not change on these.

Sandy continues toward the NNE as forecast, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 48-50 hours, before a turn more toward the N then NW occurs as she is captured by the approaching strong, deep layer trof, and as an Omega Block develops at the 500 mb level.

Analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps pretty much match up, and I concur with the NHC forecast track, however I lie a little to the right and in the middle of the 12Z Dynamic Model Guidance suite.  The track will most likely fluctuate less as time goes on, as   to the best of my knowledge, the NWS offices have been authorized to continue 4 balloon launches per day, vice the normal 2 per day, and the NOAA G IV aircraft is scheduled tomorrow for a synoptic surveillance flight around Sandy.  I concur with the NHC forecast intensity, per se’, however I believe the estimate, which may be for the tropical aspects, may be a little underdone as far as the maximum winds for an extratropical system.  Once again, I have to reference the Perfect Storm, and the 972 mb barometric pressure at its lowest, and 70 mph sustained winds. You’ll see my reasoning in a moment.

DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION WITH INTENSITY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/271504.shtml?

Recent AMSU data still indicates Sandy is warm core.  The longer she holds on to this heat energy, the worse the rapid strengthening can become when the features at hand combine.

AMSU CROSS SECTION DATA (Red line approx. center of storm)

Regardless, I still believe some areas are still going to experience sustained hurricane force winds of closer to 80 mph with much higher gusts.  Analysis of the current runs of the Global Models output indicate the models I’m about to post, have come much closer in agreement on a central pressure as this begins to make landfall…the spread is only from 948 mb to 942 mb (27.99 in to 27.82 in).  Remember, the Perfect Storm was only down to 972 mb.

GFS MODEL OUTPUT

CMC MODEL OUTPUT

ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT

Here is more fuel for thought…the following is a scale used to determine isobar spacing from wind speed, or vice versa. Go to the section for 40 deg. latitude.  Match up the wind speed with the isobar spacing using the GFS model posted below…you’ll need to zoom in by clicking on the map.  You’ll notice at the bottom, a 60 knot wind, at an isobar spacing of 60 nm.  Looking at the global models, I can tell you, the isobars near the center are spaced a hell of a lot closer than 60 nm…you do the math.

ISOBAR SPACING AND WIND

GFS NCEP MODEL

When folks in the areas to be affected get whatever watches or warnings that may be posted, I still feel preparedness actions should mimic those of hurricane preparations, especially close to and along the coast.  This storm has the POTENTIAL, emphasis on potential, to become a deadly situation for folks who do not follow their local emergency management statements and local NWS statements.

Again, very high waves will occur at and near the coast, and have the potential in some instance to reach 25-30 ft very near and on the coastline.  We are still looking at downed trees and widespread power outages, coastal and inland flooding, beach erosion, and heavy precipitation.

I am posting many graphics below to give an indication of what residents along the NE U.S. will most likely experience.

This will be my only update today.

The SLOSH model display shows storm surge potential from a CAT 1 Hurricane both at mean tide and high tide.  Sandy could be approaching landfall as the tide begins to rise toward high tide. Values have an accuracy of plus or minus 20%

SLOSH MODEL DISPLAYS

SANDY MEAN TIDE

SANDY HIGH TIDE

SANDY NJ/NY AREA MEAN TIDE

SANDY NY/NJ AREA HIGH TIDE

WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT

WATCHES AND WARNINGS TEXT REPORT

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST.  SANDY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.  NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

RAINFALL POTENTIAL

STORM SURGE PROBABILITY MAP (INTERACTIVE)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153841.shtml?gm_psurge#contents

NWS LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml

TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACT INTERACTIVE MAP (CLICK ON AREA OF INTEREST)
http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/
http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/php/tcig_index.php?sid=mhx&threat=inland

WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL