PTC 22 FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 17, 2023…10:55 A.M. EST

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          19
HURRICANES:                 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

INVEST 98L has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 22, located in the W. central Caribbean.  As of the 10:00 a.m. EST advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on PTC 22:
10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 17
Location: 17.5°N 79.1°W
Moving: NE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.64 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Satellite loop imagery indicates the LLC to be more of a open surface trough and broad in nature.  Once again, there has been a major change in the current pattern and forecast pattern, based on my analysis this morning.  PTC 22 is now under 35 – 40 kts of SWLY wind shear, and the upper level wind pattern is now zonal.  PTC 22 is also now being affected by dry air as noted in water vapor imagery.
PTC 22 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAP


Both the ECMWF and GFS now indicated conditions will continue to become more unfavorable for development, with increasing wind shear and dry air.  Based on this, I believe now PTC 22 will not become tropical, or become a tropical depression or tropical storm.  What the NHC posted in their discussion doesn’t make sense about the possibility of it still becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm.  They do show it on the track map as a storm, however I feel it will be more in the lines of an extratropical system due to baroclinic processes.  Once it travels over the mountainous terrain, it should difficult for any recovery.  From the recent discussion:
The prospects for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. The system is already battling strong southwesterly shear and mid-level dry air, and none of the global models any longer depicts the development of a well-defined circulation. The new NHC forecast therefore keeps the system as a disturbance through tonight, with some possibility (albeit decreasing) of the system becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm after it passes the mountainous terrain of Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.
Remember, for it to become tropical, it must have a well defined, closed surface circulation with organized deep convection around the center.  IF it maintains its current state and satellite presentation, it should not be named.

I do agree with the intensity forecast from the NHC, however the system should be more in line as extratropical.  In fact, with the shear and current upper pattern, it may already be at that stage.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  17/1500Z 17.5N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 19.3N  76.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  18/1200Z 21.9N  73.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  19/0000Z 25.2N  68.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 28.3N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  20/0000Z 31.8N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

Based on analysis of MSLP animations and current track guidance, PTC 22 should continue quickly to the NE and within 24 – 48 hours, should merge with a mid level trough.  I will continue to monitor the situation over the next 24 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
NHC TRACK MAP

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK (CONTAINS WATCHES AND WARNINGS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/171433.shtml?
NHC KEY MESSAGES:


ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST


SURFACE WIND FORECAST


PROJECTED 5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST