ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS: 19
HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
Analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC global models are indicating the lowering of pressures IVO Costa Rica, with the GFS indicating development of a large low pressure system in about 5 days. The CMC is a little slower showing some type of development closer to the end of the 10 day period. The ECMWF is back to showing just a lowering of MSLP. Analysis of wind shear, and surface to mid level RH forecast maps indicate the GFS still continuing to show more favorable conditions for development in the forecast, while the ECMWF and CMC indicate conditions only becoming marginal for development. However, analysis of the ECMWF EPS, GFS, and CMC CHI200 anomalies forecast maps indicate a strong divergent pattern in the upper level of the atmosphere which could allow for development. GFS and CMC MSLP forecast maps indciate a very large, broad low pressure system. Given the split between the modeling, and projected size of the area in question, should something develop, it may not be purely tropical, and appears to blend with a larger area of lower pressure. The NHC may have lost interest in the area, as the last GTWO update was at 1:00 a.m. EST this morning. I will continue to monitor the area during the next 5 – 7 days, and will probably not update unless I see something in satellite imagery that may seem suspect.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALIES DAY 5 – 10
ECMWF EPS, GFS, AND CMC CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (INDICATES DIVERGENT UPPER PATTERN)
NHC 7 DAY GTWO
The ECMWF EPS Cyclone formation probability forecast currently indicates a 50% probability of a Tropical Depression by day 7 in the forecast period.
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER 