POST TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 06, 2023…11:40 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is still a sheared system.  In fact, in my opinion, it doesn’t even resemble anything tropical, and should be downgraded to Post Tropical / Extratropical.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN


As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE.  This is the FINAL advisory from the NHC: (as this advisory was just issued in the finishing touches of my synopsis, the NHC DID just declare PHILIPPE post tropical)
11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 6
Location: 30.7°N 64.6°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Being this is the final advisory from the NHC, any type of watches, warnings, advisories or statements will be issued by your local NWS office, which can be accessed through the map at he end of this synopsis.

Based on analysis of the recent shear and upper level wind maps, it is clear that whatever the system is, is interacting with the mid to upper level trough.  Based on my analysis of forecast wind shear and upper level winds, shear is forecast to remain high over the system, and with the system interacting with the trough, some further slight strengthening could occur.  Based on my analysis of forecast MSLP anomalies, and 500 mb anomalies, PHILIPPE should merge with the current mid level low, which is now developing into a surface low, should merge with that feature sometime tonight, or during the day tomorrow.  Any future intensification will be due to baroclinicity.  Based on this mix, I agree with the current NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  06/1500Z 30.7N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  07/0000Z 33.1N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1200Z 36.3N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0000Z 40.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 44.9N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  09/0000Z 49.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

PHILIPPE was moving to the NNE as of this update.  Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track.  Based on the information analyzed, PHILIPPE should maintain a brief N to NNE motion, and then eventually bend back toward the NNW.  With this track, residents along the New England and NE coastal areas will experience significant wave heights.

12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST


The following are projected 7 day rainfall totals from the ECMWF and GFS, and forecast surface wind speed out to 72 hours.




The following graphics are from the NHC:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer the the following NHC Public Advisory for full information regarding this watch and warning:

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/061453.shtml?
NHC GRAPHICS PAGE LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145458.shtml?3-daynl

Elsewhere, the ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecasts till indicates we may see some type of development in the BOC / GOMEX within the next 4 -7 days, with the probability having lowered slightly to around 40 – 45%.  The ECMWF and GFS show initiation of this at around day 5 in the forecast period.  I’m not posting ALL of the graphics of everything I analyzed, however at initialization stage, wind shear is forecast to be slightly favorable, and displaying a radial pattern.  at about 24 -30 hours from this period, conditions will only be marginal throughout the forecast period, so this would have a very brief time to organize at the surface.  Upper level winds are forecast to remain zonal, and even though the forecast calls for a divergent upper pattern to improve 12 hours after the low enters the BOC, with PWAT and mid level moisture at favorable levels, the system is forecast to basically be an elongated mess, which may be due to interaction and being absorbed by a frontal system.  Given the forecast for the wind shear and upper level pattern at 200 mb, this may at best, become subtropical for just a brief period of 24 hours or less.
I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes to the forecast parameters.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION


Elsewhere, I am monitoring the Tropical Wave the NHC has designated in the 7 day GTWO.  Satellite imagery does indicate cyclonic rotation.  As this wave moves a little further away from the African coast, analysis of forecast wind shear and 200 mb streamline maps indicate shear to weaken, with a radial pattern developing over the system, and the 200 mb pattern indication an anti-cyclonic outflow pattern.  Though this is a favorable pattern, this wave is going to have to overcome the lack of instability.  Analysis of the 500 mb anomaly pattern indicates by around 96 – 120 hours out, these anomalies are shown lowering over and north of the area, which may help to allow the atmosphere to become unstable, which would increase the probability for development.
I will continue to monitor this area during the next 96 hours.




The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS