LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 07, 2023…2:20 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          13
HURRICANES:                 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.
UPDATE:  As of around 2:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane LEE became a Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph, and the depression near Africa became Tropical Storm Margot

Hurricane LEE continues to rapidly strengthen, and is now a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simspon scale.  As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Hurricane LEE:
11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 16.4N; 50.0°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 983mb / 29.03 in.
Max sustained: 105 mph

Current satellite loop imagery indicates a well established eye, and improving CDO
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 HURRICANE LEE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

LEE is still moving to the WNW and is being steered by a mid level ridge, with a weakness noted north of the storm in the current steering layer.  The average of this is creating the current WNW motion.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, animated MSLP maps, and 500 mb geopotential height maps, at about days 6 – 7, the ridge is forecast to develop a weakness on its western periphery, with a trough coming in, and the forward speed of LEE should begin to slow by the beginning of next week.  This should allow for LEE to begin heading on a more northerly component, and LEE should eventually re-curve.  Based on this, I agree with the current track guidance as it is very well clustered, and also the current NHC forecast track.  It is noted that the NHC track is just south of the consensus models.  This forecast SHOULD pan out. However, it is wise to keep a close eye on future guidance.  With a system as strong as forecast, two things can occur.  One is, the storm can “pump the ridge”, meaning a strong category 4 or category 5 hurricane can reinforce the SW portion of the ridge, thereby allowing the storm to maintain a more westerly component.  When I mention this, I do not mean a due west track.  For example, if a storm is, or is forecast to travel NW, pumping the ridge would allow for a more WNW motion, briefly.  The other is, the storm can become stronger than the effect of the approaching trough, and move through it, vice being repelled.  Based on analysis of current track guidance, MSLP animations and 500 mb geopotential heights forecasts, LEE should move north of the Leeward islands and the Greater Antilles.  From the NHC:
Lee should continue west-northwestward, gradually slowing its forward speed, moving along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Confidence continues to increase that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting tomorrow.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE


ECMWF AND GFS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 120 – 240 HOURS


ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST

Maximum sustained winds of Hurricane LEE have increased to 105 mph.  Based on my analysis of forecast conditions, there has been no change in the forecast.  The shear pattern is forecast to become more improved during the storms trek north of the islands, along with the improvement of the 200 mb pattern, mid level RH, and precipitable water.  The current shear pattern shows the center of the radial pattern is pretty much positioned over the center of LEE.  Although there is upper level outflow established, it could be better, as the outflow channel comes from over the system, and is semi-radial at the moment.  However the forecast still calls for the pattern to continue improving during the next 96 hours, and become textbook, directly over the storm, as well as LEE passing over some high OHC.  Based on my analysis, I believe LEE should continue the period of RI through today, if not for approximately the next 30 – 42 hours  Given all this, I am forecasting LEE to become a major hurricane later today.  Based on the forecast, extremely favorable conditions, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast, and LEE should become a Category 5 hurricane.  As the hurricane passes parallel to the U.S. coast, large swells should affect the coastline.
CURRENT SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM CIMSS


OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

ECMWF SHEAR, PWAT, MID LEVEL RH, AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 96 HOURS




NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
I will continue to monitor the progress of LEE for any significant changes that may occur to the forecast conditions.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS