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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics. Form this point on, as it appears activity may pick up, I will be updating on systems that pose a threat closest to the U.S. first, and then any other areas of concern, should we encounter multiple systems.
The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season. The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy
Vicky Wilfred
STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 7
HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
INVEST 91L and Tropical Storm Gonzalo are prominent in GOES satellite loop imagery this evening:
GOES 16 ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK TO ANIMATE)
I’ll begin tonight with the area closest to home. Satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 91L may be getting slowly better organized this evening.
GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK TO ANIMATE)
As of 8:00 p.m. EDT, based on the 00Z ATCF BTK report, the following was available on 91L:
8:00 PM AST Tue Jul 22
Location: 25.7°N 87.9°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
The disturbance is moving to the WNW and is being steered by the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, there really shouldn’t be any change to the forecast track over the next 72 hours, and the disturbance should remain on a WNW trajectory until landfall with more of a westward component just prior to landfall. Based on the guidance being mostly clustered, the system should come ashore along the central Texas coast in roughly 72 hours. I prefer the track of the consensus models TVCA / TVCE.
00Z TRACK GUIDANCE
Maximum sustained winds were still 30 mph, and pressure has dropped to 1009 mb. Based on the track guidance, and current wind shear forecast, both the GFS and ECMWF still indciate upper level winds to become favorable for development by Wednesday night, with the development of an upper level anticyclone over the system. Based on this analysis, I believe we could see 91L begin to become better organized once it’s located south of LA. The disturbance will be traversing 30C water, and entering OHC of 75 KJ/cm2. Some drier air is still forecast at the mid level (500 mb), however it appears it may be more limited as the disturbance moves to just off the coast. Based on current wind shear, the CIMSS map indicates the presence of a clockwise flow aloft, and the possibility of outflow slowly taking shape. In fact, the updated 00Z upper level wind map indicates the presence of an outflow pattern beginning:
CIMSS 00Z UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Albeit intensity guidance models have backed off and keeps this just below T.D. status, IF the disturbance can overcome most of the dry air, I believe just prior to, or as landfall is taking place, INVEST 91L could become a minimal tropical storm. I do believe this should attain T.D. status in about the next 24 – 36 hours. The NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
From the NHC:
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana tonight or on Thursday.
I will be monitoring this system for any significant changes over the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere, T.D. 7 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.
GOES 16 FLOATER SATELLITE GONZALO
As of 8:00 p.m. EDT, the following was available on GONZALO:
8:00 PM AST Tue Jul 22
Location: 9.9°N 45.4°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb / 29.47 in.
Max sustained: 60 mph
Based on current steering and satellite motion, GONZALO is moving toward the W. This has occurred as current steering at the 850 – 500 mb level has become westerly and strengthened slightly. I believe this will be short term, and expect a WNW motion to resume after 18 – 24 hours. Forecast steering and track guidance shows this, and guidance models are in fairly good agreement, and GONZALO should enter the eastern Caribbean Sea on Saturday.
00Z TRACK GUIDANCE
GONZALO looked a little better earlier this evening. Analysis of current wind shear and upper level winds indicates upper level winds are light at around 5 – 10 knots, however the upper level flow is pretty much out of the east, instead of a clockwise radial pattern. This leads me to believe that the weak upper level wind speed is allowing for the storm to just maintain itself. Upper level winds however, are still forecast to become more conducive by tomorrow until the storm approaches close to the Lesser Antilles, where shear is forecast to begin to increase. The majority of the intensity models still bring this to a strong CAT1 hurricane by 36 hours and maintains that as it crosses the islands. The global models still do not indicate this.
00Z INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
I agree with the NHC that the intensity forecast is problematic, and of low confidence. The one thing I am apprehensive of is, dry air at 500 mb is still forecast to surround the storm, and wind shear is forecast to increase.
ECMWF 500 MB MOISTURE FORECAST
Against my better judgement (the NHC will most likely update the intensity as I am issuing this to different folks, and I won’t have the 11 p.m. information.) I am going with the NHC guidance, albeit I feel conditions will not be optimal enough. Maybe a brief CAT 1 then weakening as per the global models. One thing of note however, IF Gonzalo can fight the dry air and conditions in the upper remain favorable, he COULD begin R.I. once in the Caribbean Sea. I guess we will find out.
From the NHC discussion at 5:00 p.m.:
The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone structure, light shear environment,and warm sea surface temperatures suggest strengthening, possibly even rapidly, should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF still make the system a hurricane. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue to forecast the system to weaken to an open wave by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence, and microwave imagery suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be issued sometime on Thursday.
INIT 22/2100Z 9.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W 55 KT 65
24H 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
I will continue to monitor this system for any significant changes, and will try to update tomorrow evening.
You may direct any questions this season by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER 