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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL STORMS: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 3
The structure of Hurricane Michael, based on satellite loop imagery, indicates the structure has improved today.
As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT intermediate advisory, the following was available on Michael:
7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 8
Location: 22.7°N 85.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb / 28.64 in
Max sustained: 85 mph
NHC HURREVAC TRACKING, WIND RADIUS, AND CLOSEUP MAPS
Based on analysis of the current wind shear map, upper level outflow has improved, however it is restricted on the western side of the storm, which concurs with the information contained in the last forecast discussion. Information also indicates the moderate shear Michael has been experiencing, is not expected to affect strengthening. Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the ECMWF, the upper level anticyclone is going to be going through some changes during the next 12 hours. Thereafter, the upper level anticyclone is forecast to become somewhat better defined. This should be when we may see more steady strengthening, and could possibly see R.I. over the higher OHC area. Information from the NHC discussion indicates the following:
Although the statistical guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model.
Based on analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS Global Models, MSLP near the coast and at landfall MAY average 962 mb, which equates to approximately 115 mph. Based on these analyses, IF none of the forecast conditions changes, I have no choice but to concur with the NHC intensity guidance, which would make Michael a MAJOR, category 3 hurricane at landfall. Just prior to making landfall, and very near the coast, based on the shear forecast maps, the upper level outflow begins to collapse, which should allow for Michael to weaken slightly, and is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast.
ECMWF VARIOUS MAPS
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 5:00 P.M. DISCUSSION
INIT 08/2100Z 22.2N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W 100 KT 115 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Michael is moving to the north, after having wobbled slightly west. I expect this motion to continue through to Wed. Based on analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, the storm should take more of a NNE turn on Wed. afternoon, prior to nearing the coast. Based on analysis of the steering forecast maps, and updated track guidance, Michael SHOULD make landfall from anywhere from Fort Walton Beach to Panama City, FL. sometime Wed. afternoon. This is not written in stone, as any wobble can shift the track slightly either direction. Based on the recent updated track guidance however, a NOAA Gulfstream Surveillance mission was conducted at high levels, and that information was run on the 00Z updated run, which allowed the guidance to become better clustered.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
Residents in the Hurricane Warning areas should be completing preparations. You should be preparing for widespread power outages, flooding, storm surge near the coast, and possible isolated tornadoes. Residents should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements regarding necessary action.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK:
LOCAL NWS INFORMATION LINK
The following are wind threat, surge threat, and storm surge data. Storm surge data is from the SLOSH software program. Values are accurate to plus or minus 20%.
SLOSH STORM SURGE VALES (EXPECTED…PLUS OR MINUS 20%)
The following is forecast precipitation totals from the ECMWF:
ECMWF 10 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST
I have a late evening at church tomorrow after work, so I will not be bale to update tomorrow evening. PLEASE use all the links in this forecast.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS