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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Based on some quick research I did today, coupled with climate model forecasts, I have chosen to lower my seasonal forecast slightly.
StormW’s 2018 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 12 – 13
HURRICANES: 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL STORMS: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
Tropical Storm Chris remains nearly stationary west of SC. Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Chris has moved little over the past few hours. Maximum sustained winds were kept at 60 mph. Chris had ingested a very narrow band of drier air, which slightly disrupted the inner core region, per NHC discussion. Earlier satellite loop imagery showed some slight disorganization. However, since the inner core was reported to be small and well defined, the combination of warm waters and light shear should allow Chris to mix out the dry air, which is also noted in the NHC discussion from 11:00 .a.m.
Recent satellite loop imagery indicates this may be occurring as I type this synopsis, as Chris appears to be getting slowly better organized, with convection now re-building over and near the center.
An upper level anticyclone remains above the storm, and is forecast to remain over Chris for at least the next 36 hours, based on current wind shear analysis, and wind shear forecast from the ECMWF global model.
Given the combination of warm SST’s and forecast shear pattern for the next 36 hours, Chris should continue to strengthen gradually, and should become a Category 1 hurricane within the next 18 – 24 hours. Based on the current forecast path, Chris may continue to strengthen out to 36 hours in the forecast period, before moving over colder SST’s. At that time, wind shear is forecast to begin to increase, and Chris should begin to weaken after that. By 72 hours, Chris may encounter some dry air intrusion, along with more of an increase in wind shear, and should transition to Post or Extra-Tropical by this time. Based on current early intensity guidance, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast:
EARLY CYCLE INTENSITY FORECAST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 09/1500Z 32.2N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 33.3N 73.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 34.8N 70.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 40.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 47.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 51.1N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Chris has been stationary for the past 24 hours. However, based on analysis of forecast steering maps, a trof is forecast to dig SE out of Canada, and Chris should make a semi-cyclonic loop, before being steered toward the NE as the trof digs deeper. This is reflected in model track guidance which is in excellent agreement, and is reflected in the NHC forecast track.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
I will continue to monitor Chris for any significant changes over the next few days.
Tropical Wave Beryl is still being monitored and tracked. As of 12Z this morning, the remnant wave was located near 16.8N;65.2W.
NASA SATELLITE CLOSEUP (BERYL CENTER CIRCLED)
The wave was moving WNW at around 25 mph. Wind speed with the wave was estimated to be 40 mph. Based on analysis of the current wind shear map., there is some slight ridging over the wave, however wind shear values are up around 30 – 35 kts. TW Beryl may be holding on just enough though, as the upper level wind pattern is such, that an outflow channel exists mainly from the NE and around the eastern periphery, hence the convection on her eastern side.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP
Based on the forecast wind shear from the ECMWF, and SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear is supposed to remain unfavorable for any regeneration over the next 24 – 30 hours. The ECMWF does indicate however, a weakening of wind shear, and development of a weak upper level anticyclone over the Bahamas in about 48 – 72 hours.
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
I’ve mulled this over in my head, as the NHC is currently designating a MEDIUM (40%) probability of regeneration over the Bahamas in the 5 day Tropical Weather Outlook.
What I have been looking at is, the projected path for TW Beryl is right over the island of Hispaniola, to which Beryl will encounter mountains on the order of 3,300 to 6,600 ft in height. Then, reflecting back, if memory serves me correctly, the situation will be different, being this isn’t a fully developed T.S. or Hurricane, which would have the inner core disrupted. Being a fairly weak looking tropical wave (as far as a low level feature), there isn’t really anything to disrupt, and being the wave is weak, the more forecast somewhat favorable conditions could be enough for her to possibly begin to regenerate, albeit a very small window of opportunity, as shear is forecast to be low for only 36-48 hours over the Bahamas area after Beryl approaches. On the other hand, neither the GFS or ECMWF call for regeneration, while the NAVGEM and CMC call for regeneration. Given the discrepancies, it will probably be best to forecast this in real time after Beryl exits the island of Hispaniola.
Beryl continues to move toward the WNW, and based on analysis of forecast steering maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the wave should make a turn more toward the NW and enter the southern Bahamas, with more of a northward movement by 48 hours, then toward the NNE, due to interaction with the same trof that will steer Chris NEWD.
BERYL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
I am not certain when I will have another update on these systems, as this week I’m scheduled to work later. Please use the site links in the black area under the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft logo at the top of my page. You’ll see Abbreviations, National Hurricane Center, Satellite and Radar page, etc…these are all linked, just click on them.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS