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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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StormW’s 2018 SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 13 – 15
HURRICANES: 6 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3
2018 CURRENT SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL STORMS: 3
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
Going to start closer to home…Tropical Depression 3, as you know by now, is now Tropical Storm Chris. As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Chris:
5:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 8
Location: 32.7°N 74.6°W
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
T.S. CHRIS HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
Maximum sustained winds with Chris are 50 mph, with higher gusts. Based on my analysis of forecast relative humidity, SST’s, wind shear, and forecast path, Chris should continue to strengthen at a steady rate. Analysis reveals that during the next 60-72 hours from 12Z this morning, ample relative humidity values will be present up to the mid level of the atmosphere (500 mb). Based on the wind shear forecast from the GFS, and partially from the ECMWF, wind shear values are forecast to remain at conducive levels for development, with the current upper level anticyclone becoming more defined.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST (UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CIRCLED)
Based on these factors and warm SST’s, I do concur with the NHC forecast, in that Chris should become a Category ONE hurricane within the next 24-30 hours. I concur with the NHC current intensity forecast, which is in line with a majority of the intensity guidance models that indciate Chris to become a Cat 1 hurricane.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 08/2100Z 32.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 32.5N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 32.3N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 43.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 50.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
EARLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE
However, analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS global models takes Chris to 963 mb (ECMWF) and 966 mb (GFS) which pretty much equates to a top end Category 2 hurricane. Based on the favorable conditions forecast to be in place for Chris during the next 2 – 3 days, I cannot totally rule this scenario out at the moment. After 72 hours from this morning, analysis reveals upper level conditions to become unfavorable for any further strengthening, and dry air should begin to intrude into the storm in the mid levels, or at 500 mb. In addition, Chris will begin to traverse colder SST’s, and he should begin to transition to an extra-tropical system, what we term “baroclinic”
Chris is currently pretty much stationary, as there has been a brief collapse in steering currents. Based on the analysis of the streamlines from the layer mean steering maps, once Chris begins to have some forward motion, he should complete a semi-cyclonic loop then begin to move off toward the NE, as an approaching trof will be the main steering component. Based on analysis of the current run of the forecast steering maps, and model track guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track. Model guidance is pretty well clustered together.
18Z EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
I will continue to monitor Chris, and intend to have another update sometime tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Beryl was downgraded moments ago to an open wave. Based on the 5:00 p.m.advisory from the NHC, the following was available on the remnants of Beryl:
5:00 PM AST Sun Jul 8
Location: 15.2°N 60.3°W
Moving: WNW at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
HURREVAC BERYL NHC TRACKING MAPS
NASA SATELLITE CLOSEUP STILL
Maximum sustained winds with the remnant were 45 mph. Based on analysis current and forecast wind shear, and accelerated forward speed, the remnant low should not regenerate as it enters the Caribbean. Although the remnant still has a decent moisture shield around it, based on recent TPW images, shear is forecast to continue to increase within the next 12 hours to over 25 kts, based on the 18Z SHIPS diagnostic report, and is reflected in the shear forecast from the GFS. The possibility has been brought up that the remnant could regenerate briefly near the southern Bahamas as it turns northward. It is noted in the shear forecast, that conditions may become favorable for a breif time, which “could” allow for some breif regeneration, however I believe as it crosses the island of Hispaniola, the mountainous terrain should pretty much take care of any remnant low remaining.
Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, and ensemble models, I agree with the model guidance indicating a track through the southern Bahamas, then north, and eventually NE…should there be anything left to track.
ECMWF EPS AND NCEP GEFS GUIDANCE
I will continue to monitor these remnants until such a time I feel there is zero chance at regeneration.
I will mostly be updating on my time off from work, as far as a regular tropical outlook. During an active system however, I will do my best to provide a forecast once I am home from work.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS