TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 10, 2018…9:15 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

Analysis was somewhat aggravating this evening.  The Global Models, with the exception of the ECMWF and UKMET, are still indicating development of a sub-tropical storm by around the 15th – 16th of the month.  The GFS is still the most bullish, however on the 12Z run, it had whatever it is forecasting, down to max. T.S. strength, and on the recent 18Z run, has it back to approximately a strong CAT 2 hurricane. 

GFS

CMC

FIM

Once again, I am going to mention, please do not try and play armchair meteorologist and state that it’s going to go here or there, and strike as a hurricane, or, this and that.  It is best to have knowledge as to the way which models act which way at certain times, and have had experience forecasting with them for several years before making ANY type of decision on what may happen.  Models are fed numerous parameters of the atmosphere and oceans, with each model having different grids and layers, and come up with mathematical solutions.  These solutions are printed as the maps we see, and since each model is different in the depth of the layers/grids, etc., each will show a different solution.  Again, these are tools that WE use as forecasters, along with analysis of multiple parameters, pattern recognition, climatology etc., along with remembering how the various models have acted or performed over the years.  For instance, here is an explanation of the “FIM” model (click link)
https://fim.noaa.gov/Welcome-FIM.cgi.

This is for the GFS
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/moorthi/gam.html

The ECMWF is considered the premiere model, and is far more complicated.

Based on this evenings analysis, again, it’s going to depend on which model is correct as to whether or not we see any development.  Since the ECMWF computes 91 -137 different levels of the atmosphere, and usually outperforms the other global models, I tend to side with it.

Satellite loop imagery indicates that the area in the W. Caribbean at the moment, is pretty much associated with a mid – upper level low, with thunderstorm activity being enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft.  Surface obs. do not indicate any type of circulation at the surface right now, and the latest forecast indicates (valid for 00Z tonight) that winds closer to the surface are out of the east (seen circled in the 925 mb map), and a small mid level circulation (circled in the 500 mb map).

GOES 16 AND RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGES FOR LOOP ANIMATIONS)

925 MB NCEP FORECAST

500 MB NCEP FORECAST

My analysis revealed that there are some favorable signals forecast to occur, which would tend to indicate some type of development IVO extreme W. Caribbean to extreme W. GOMEX.  Some of these being as follows:   The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast by both the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members to enter into Octants 1 and 2 which has the tendency to promote development, due to upward motion in the atmosphere provided by this oscillation.  The link will take you to an article on this phenomenon:
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

The following maps indicate as well, that the MJO is forecast to be over the GOMEX/Caribbean by next week, however more strongly pronounced by the 18th of the month.

MJO FILTERED VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES MAPS (BLUES, PURPLES AND BLACKS INDICATE FAVORABLE AREAS OF UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY…RED CIRCLE)

The ECMWF and GFS indicate decent humidity levels up to 500 mb in the forecast period.

The big difference is, the GFS indicates upper level winds to turn favorable for development, developing an upper level anticyclone (circled), while the ECMWF indicates wind shear to remain over the GOMEX.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF

Given the GFS usually nails the wind shear forecast, (albeit I’m a little skeptical given the performance in the GFS flip flopping back and forth in it’s current forecast of this supposed system, and making ALBERTO a hurricane in the first few days of development when it initialized), and since other global models are indicating development, at various intensities, I’m going to stick my neck out here, and surmise that we COULD possibly see a weak development in the W. GOMEX somewhere after the 15th of the month.  I’m basing this on a “blend” of the models analyzed, especially the forecast 500 mb normalized anomaly pattern that incinerates the lowering of pressures at the 500 mb level during the time frame of the forecast period. 

ECMWF NORMALIZED 500 MB ANOMALIES

NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN ANOMALIES

 

PLEASE, do not ask the question “is it going to hit here?”, or “will it hit me?” , because as of right now, the models all indicate a different path.  This question can be better answered “once” and “if” we get a closed surface circulation.  However, based on what the models are showing as far as a wind field, if development does occur, it appears it will also be sub-tropical in nature, as the maximum sustained winds that are forecast, will be well east of any “center”.  IF development occurs, I again look for whatever it may be, to become another east weighted system.  Based on the unknown at this time, this forecast should be considered low confidence.  In fact, this may have to be played by “real time”, in that there will be more certainty in the forecast once I see something “promising” in satellite imagery or in analysis of the wind flow from the surface to mid levels.

I will mostly be updating on my time off from work, as far as a regular tropical outlook.  During an active system however, I will do my best to provide a forecast once I am home from work.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 10, 2018…9:15 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I think people need to remember that weather forecasting is a science, but a science at the mercy of unknowns and the whimsy of Mother Nature (the “butterfly on the mountain” theory). Also, we know that there have been several earthquakes and volcanic eruptions of late, and those can have impacts on the air and the oceans. So we all have to keep in mind that forecasting is the use of one’s knowledge and experience, coupled with measurements and models, to tell us what MAY happen or which MOST LIKELY will happen. Also, we need to be aware that the storms “born” in the Gulf and the Caribbean develop quickly, and the distance from the Yucatan Peninsula to the upper Gulf Coast is MUCH shorter than from Africa to any point on the U.S. coastline, so we don’t have as much warning. I thank you for dedicating your precious off-work time to this site and to your craft, and I thank your family for sharing that time with us.

  2. Array says:

    Hey chief, I always enjoy reading your easy to follow in depth synopsis. Thanks and have a good day.

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