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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
The large area of disturbed weather that was located over the east central GOMEX over the past few days, is now beginning to open into just a trof of low pressure. Based on analysis during the evolution of this low, there was a very brief window for this to try to become sub-tropical. However as in my previous forecasts, wind shear did increase, after relaxing briefly, and along with drier air entering this low, the toll has been taken. Rain can still be expected over portions of the SE today and tomorrow as this slowly dissipates. The probability of any tropical development no longer exists, and this will be my final update on this entity.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK GRAPHICS FOR ANIMATION)
GLOBAL IR (CHANNEL 14)
Current Doppler Radar loop imagery indicates quite the reduction in precipitation this afternoon, with lingering precipitation streaming northward over the SE and eastern portions of the U.S.
Elsewhere, based on analysis of the various global modeling, there appears to be good agreement among the models in either a closed low developing , or lowering of surface pressures in the extreme western Caribbean Sea in about 8 – 10 days in the forecast period from 12Z this morning. The GFS on earlier runs had indicated a 977 to 959 mb hurricane, but has surprisingly backed off quite a bit, and is more in agreement with the remainder of the medium range models. As stated, the models seem to have been consistent in some type of development. Of course, this is another 10 day forecast pretty much by the models, and again, may not be very accurate. However, I am taking interest, as both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement, and were close with each other as far as the pressure of the system they are trying to sniff out.
Based on the current wind shear forecast, the GFS once again indicates shear will relax during the specified time frame for a brief period, with a partial upper level anti-cyclone at 200 mb. Albeit shear relaxes briefly, the upper pattern may once again resemble the pattern we just witnessed with the GOMEX low, with an outflow channel north and east of the “low”.
GFS AND ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
The TPW (Total Precipitable Water) or PWAT forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF indicate fairly high TPW levels of 2+ inches.
PWAT: Precipitable Water – measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.
GFS/ECMWF PWAT FORECAST
The NCEP Multi Model Ensemble probability for cyclogenesis has increased since the yesterday evening run, and the ECMWF EPS probability has increased to 20% for the formation of a Tropical Depression. While so far I haven’t been impressed by the NCEP modeling, the increase in probability with both models is what I am looking at.
Analysis of the current 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies indicates upward vertical motion, or upward velocities will be over the area during the period in question, as indicated by the blue/purple contours over the W. Caribbean.
200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL
Again, I will reiterate, these factors DO NOT indicate development will occur, however, given the recent agreement by the majority of global models, and the positive factors listed, this area may have to be watched within the next 8 – 10 days for possible development.
I will be in between jobs next week, as the current company I work for is terminating all of us delivery drivers. I will continue to monitor the W. Caribbean, and will have updates when possible.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS