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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
A large area of disturbed weather, associated with a broad surface low interacting with an upper-level low, continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall over the eastern GOMEX and Florida peninsula. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability of formation of a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
GOES 16 AND RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK GRAPHICS FOR ANIMATION)
Current satellite and radar loop imagery indicates what appears to be a northward motion at the moment, and what appears to be a surface circulation/low trying to become established on the eastern edge of the radar loops. Satellite animations did indicate a broad low, with multiple vortices noted.
FLORIDA RADAR SITE LOOPS (CLICK IMAGES)
Based on current steering layers analysis, steering currents are somewhat weak at the moment. Based on analysis of Global models, and current forecast steering map analysis, I expect a somewhat general northward motion to continue today, with a turn more toward the NNW either later tonight, or in the morning, followed by a turn toward the NW to W by late Tues. evening. Based on the ECMWF forecast, and steering layers forecast, I expect this system to slow as it turns to the NW and W, briefly stall, and possibly perform a cyclonic loop. The ECMWF has been consistent with this since yesterday, and still brings this area ashore near Apalachicola by early Thurs., while the GFS slows the area, and brings it ashore just west of the Florida Panhandle, as does the Canadian model. So for all intents and purposes, this should affect the general western Florida Panhandle on Thurs. It is noted from past seasons, and in my experiences, the ECMWF is generally superior in future track accuracy.
Based on satellite imagery, this disturbance continues to remain poorly organized, and albeit the NHC has designated the MEDIUM (40%) probability of development in the 5 day forecast, I believe this has a lower chance of any organization as it travels northward over the next 24-36 hours. Analysis of current vorticity maps indicates vorticity associated with the disturbance is elongated over a large area. This indicates to me that the heat energy is also spread out over a large area. In order for a system of this nature, or even a purely tropical system to begin to become organized, heat energy must be focused pretty much in a vertical column from the surface to mid levels of the atmosphere. Based on my analysis of the current and forecast wind shear maps, upper level winds still remain non conducive at this time for development. One of the things however, that is keeping this area “alive” is an outflow channel north f the disturbance, as noted in the current upper level wind product from CIMSS.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Current wind shear forecast maps still indicate upper level winds to “relax” somewhat, which may be a little more conducive for some better organization, albeit I’m not too impressed with the premise of a limited outflow pattern. Based on what I am still seeing in analysis of the models, this disturbance could become better organized prior to coming ashore on Thurs. IF this does become better defined prior to then, I will be surprised, based on current forecast conditions. NHC intends to send out a reconnaissance aircraft tomorrow to investigate the area:
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
The following are forecast 7 day total rainfall estimates:
NCEP WPC QPF
Again, this “could” possibly become sub-tropical down the road, however forecast sustained winds would lean toward only depression status.
I will continue to monitor the area for any significant changes, and intend to post another update sometime on Wed.
Elsewhere, albeit within the 8-10 day time frame in the current forecast period, and as I’ve previously stated, model forecasts out to 10 days tend not to be that accurate, however, I cannot ignore some of the model agreement, especially between the GFS and ECMWF, in that they are once again, “sniffing out” mischief in the W, Caribbean Sea in about 8-10 days. Both models indicate a lowering of MSLP in the current MSLP anomaly maps. The JMA is also in line at 500 mb, but a tad bit quicker than the other two. The current shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds may become more favorable for development by day 10. AGAIN, NOTHING DEFINITE, however it pays to stay vigilant.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES
JMA 500MB ANOMALIES
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS