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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
Sorry I haven’t been around a lot lately. My work schedule has been such, that the severe weather we have been seeing, has been occurring during my work days, so I have not been in the office. On top of this, for the past week, I’ve been busy with the insurance adjuster, and getting items out of my vehicle. My 2008 Mustang was totaled a week ago Sunday, as another driver hit me in the rear.
I do intend to spend some late hours here during the hurricane season on work days if a storm is threatening land areas, as I did last season.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from FLORIDA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES…
A MARGINAL risk surrounds the slight risk area ACROSS PART OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES…
Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday and Sunday night.
Based on information contained in the SPC discussion, strong to severe thunderstorms should be initiating over the Florida Panhandle, southward into the eastern GOMEX.
Based on my analysis of the most recent forecast sounding data using the NAM-WRF model output from F5 DATA software, data and indices tend to indicate the strongest of the severe threat, including the best probability for damaging thunderstorm straight line winds/gusts, and isolated tornado activity, lies within the outlined areas in the following maps:
NAM-WRF 11:00 A.M. EDT
NAM-WRF 2:00 P.M. EDT
This activity will slowly push eastward and by approximately 8:00 p.m. EDT, the strongest activity is forecast to be over the DELMARVA area, with the possibility of some activity over a portion of the upper Ohio Valley with the northward extent of the cold front, and over south Florida, mainly south of the Tampa Bay area, to the Florida Keys.
Given the onset of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast for early to late morning, I will be in church while the storms are ongoing, so I will not be in the office to update you.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and NWS statements on Sunday.
Please click on the Storm Prediction Center link, at the top of the page, located in the black bar area below the Hurricane Hunter graphic to follow the severe activity in my absence.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, SEEK SAFE, STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
Please use the following linked maps for updated severe weather and Doppler Radar information. YOU MUST click on the graphics to receive updated graphics data and information
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS