DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 14, 2018…7:40 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

Sorry I haven’t been around a lot lately.  My work schedule has been such, that the severe weather we have been seeing, has been occurring during my work days, so I have not been in the office.  On top of this, for the past week, I’ve been busy with the insurance adjuster, and getting items out of my vehicle.  My 2008 Mustang was totaled a week ago Sunday, as another driver hit me in the rear.

I do intend to spend some late hours here during the hurricane season on work days if a storm is threatening land areas, as I did last season.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from FLORIDA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES…

A MARGINAL risk surrounds the slight risk area ACROSS PART OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES…

SPC SUMMARY…
Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday and Sunday night.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

Based on information contained in the SPC discussion, strong to severe thunderstorms should be initiating over the Florida Panhandle, southward into the eastern GOMEX.

Based on my analysis of the most recent forecast sounding data using the NAM-WRF model output from F5 DATA software, data and indices tend to indicate the strongest of the severe threat, including the best probability for damaging thunderstorm straight line winds/gusts, and isolated tornado activity, lies within the outlined areas in the following maps:

NAM-WRF 11:00 A.M. EDT

NAM-WRF 2:00 P.M. EDT

This activity will slowly push eastward and by approximately 8:00 p.m. EDT, the strongest activity is forecast to be over the DELMARVA area, with the possibility of some activity over a portion of the upper Ohio Valley with the northward extent of the cold front, and over south Florida, mainly south of the Tampa Bay area, to the Florida Keys.

Given the onset of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast for early to late morning, I will be in church while the storms are ongoing, so I will not be in the office to update you.

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and NWS statements on Sunday.

Please click on the Storm Prediction Center link, at the top of the page, located in the black bar area below the Hurricane Hunter graphic to follow the severe activity in my absence.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, SEEK SAFE, STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

Please use the following linked maps for updated severe weather and Doppler Radar information.  YOU MUST click on the graphics to receive updated graphics data and information

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (CLICK IMAGE)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (CLICK IMAGE)

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK IMAGE, THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR SUMMARY (CLICK IMAGE)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 14, 2018…7:40 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Glad you are OK. But I know being in a car accident isn’t fun, even if one is not injured.And the monetary loss too. Even with insurance, it costs money to back on with your life.

  2. dellamom says:

    I hope you were not injured in the car accident, Storm. I understand the pressures of work … one reason I will be retiring earlier than I had thought I would. Take care of yourself and your family, and everything else can follow. We appreciate what time and expertise you are able to give us, as well as the tools you have provided to us for those times you are unavailable.

  3. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, I received 2.53″ of rain from the storm on Monday the 16th.

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