COASTAL / OFFSHORE STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 09, 2018…3:40 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.

DONATIONS NEEDED

Don’t forget to set your clocks ahead 1 hour on Sat. evening before going to bed.

Analysis of the Global models and regional NAM/WRF indicate a coastal / offshore storm to develop beginning early Monday morning, Mar. 12, along the approximate area of the Mid Atlantic coast. 

The GFS keeps this low further off the coast than the ECMWF.  Both the NAM and CANADIAN (CMC) model keep this system a little closer to the coast.  Given in analysis this morning, some feedback issues associated with the GFS, I prefer a blend or average of the ECMWF and CMC positioning during the forecast period.

By 96 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning, the ECMWF deepens the system to 979mb, GFS to 988mb, and the CMC to 976mb, but well offshore.

GFS

ECMWF

CMC

Sustained winds along the immediate coast are forecast to be 20-25 kts, with gusts to 30, with sustained winds of 40+ kts close to the center of the system.  Coastal flooding and some beach erosion is likely along northward and east facing beaches.

Rain will turn to snow and wintry precipitation as the system pulls away from the U.S. and heads more offshore.

The following are forecast precipitation and snow accumulation totals for the next 120 hours:

GFS

The following are forecast snowfall accumulation totals from the GFS and ECMWF

GFS

ECMWF

The following graphics are linked…click on the graphic(s) to view up to date information, and animations:

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION

WAVEWATCH U.S. EAST COAST WIND FORECAST

WAVEWATCH U.S. EAST COAST SEA HEIGHT FORECAST

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)…CLICK GRAPHIC, THEN YOUR AREA

OPC OFFSHORE FORECAST (LINKED…INTERACTIVE)…CLICK AREA OF INTEREST

GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES(click for animation)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to COASTAL / OFFSHORE STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 09, 2018…3:40 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Well, the forecast “Busted” for southern Fairfield Co. CT. Only about an inch here. But huge totals up-state, especially in the eastern 1/3 of CT. and into RI and eastern Mass. Many 20″+ totals!!

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, yeah that Nor’Easter that is forming on the 12th looks to really “Bomb Out”! Getting into the 960’sMB by Wednesday. Looks like it will pass a little SE of the 70/40 Benchmark. If it had been a little closer , I would have a BIG snow! LOL, but really looks like an Eastern New England blockbuster. We are expecting here , about 3-6″. NYC, about 2-4″. I’ll let you know my totals, on Wed.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s