Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
Don’t forget to set your clocks ahead 1 hour on Sat. evening before going to bed.
Analysis of the Global models and regional NAM/WRF indicate a coastal / offshore storm to develop beginning early Monday morning, Mar. 12, along the approximate area of the Mid Atlantic coast.
The GFS keeps this low further off the coast than the ECMWF. Both the NAM and CANADIAN (CMC) model keep this system a little closer to the coast. Given in analysis this morning, some feedback issues associated with the GFS, I prefer a blend or average of the ECMWF and CMC positioning during the forecast period.
By 96 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning, the ECMWF deepens the system to 979mb, GFS to 988mb, and the CMC to 976mb, but well offshore.
Sustained winds along the immediate coast are forecast to be 20-25 kts, with gusts to 30, with sustained winds of 40+ kts close to the center of the system. Coastal flooding and some beach erosion is likely along northward and east facing beaches.
Rain will turn to snow and wintry precipitation as the system pulls away from the U.S. and heads more offshore.
The following are forecast precipitation and snow accumulation totals for the next 120 hours:
The following are forecast snowfall accumulation totals from the GFS and ECMWF
The following graphics are linked…click on the graphic(s) to view up to date information, and animations:
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS