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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good evening everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a MARGINAL Severe Weather Risk for tomorrow, Saturday Feb. 10, 2018.
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…
A marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast across the central Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley region on Saturday, with a few instances of strong to damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado the primary threats.
Based on my analysis of the outlook, and forecast sounding parameters and indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, forecast indices do not appear strong at all…in fact, the forecast SWEAT Index is slated at only 200-250, a lifted index of zero to -2, CAPE values of only 500-800, and weak mid level lapse rates. However, given mid 60’s dewpoints being forecast, along with enough effective Bulk Shear, some organized cells could display rotation, along with a few bowing segments. Based on this, damaging thunderstorm gusts, and brief, weak tornado activity cannot be ruled out.
Based on the current forecast sounding data from the NAM-WRF model, the areas within the white outline appear to have the best probability of experiencing the damaging winds and tornadic activity:
NAM-WRF 3:00 P.M. CST FEB 10, 2018
NAM-WRF 6:00 P.M. CST FEB 10, 2018
These parameters are subject to change, and outlines could change depending on morning forecast sounding data. I have to work tomorrow, so please utilize the following linked graphics to remain up to date. Click on the graphics to either put them in motion, or to receive up to date information on watches, warnings, etc.
The following are forecast 72 hour rainfall totals for the SEUS, from the WPC, GFS AND ECMWF models:
WPC (Weather Prediction Center)
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS