MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 09, 2018…5:40 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a MARGINAL Severe Weather Risk for tomorrow, Saturday Feb. 10, 2018.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
A marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast across the central Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley region on Saturday, with a few instances of strong to damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado the primary threats.

Based on my analysis of the outlook, and forecast sounding parameters and indices from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, forecast indices do not appear strong at all…in fact, the forecast SWEAT Index is slated at only 200-250, a lifted index of zero to -2, CAPE values of only 500-800, and weak mid level lapse rates.  However, given mid 60’s dewpoints being forecast, along with enough effective Bulk Shear, some organized cells could display rotation, along with a few bowing segments.  Based on this, damaging thunderstorm gusts, and brief, weak tornado activity cannot be ruled out.

Based on the current forecast sounding data from the NAM-WRF model, the areas within the white outline appear to have the best probability of experiencing the damaging winds and tornadic activity:

NAM-WRF 3:00 P.M. CST FEB 10, 2018

NAM-WRF 6:00 P.M. CST FEB 10, 2018

These parameters are subject to change, and outlines could change depending on morning forecast sounding data.  I have to work tomorrow, so please utilize the following linked graphics to remain up to date.  Click on the graphics to either put them in motion, or to receive up to date information on watches, warnings, etc.

COD METEOROLOGY SEUS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR SUMMARY (CLICK TO REFRESH)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY (LINKED)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY (LINKED)

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON GRAPHIC, THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

The following are forecast 72 hour rainfall totals for the SEUS, from the WPC, GFS AND ECMWF models:

WPC (Weather Prediction Center)
GFS MODEL
ECMWF MODEL

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED FEB. 09, 2018…5:40 P.M. EST

  1. PortA BeachBum says:

    Been away for a while, but apparently so have most others! Will Spring ever come? Just now beginning to get out from under “HARVEY”. I say that knowing I’ve just got started!

  2. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, waiting, for the snow to begin here in the NE. Should start about 5-7PM or so, and end 3-5AM Sunday morning.We expect here in SW CT. anywheres from 3-6″ . I’ll let you know what I got. I’ll post again to you on Sunday.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I was in New Braunfels, Texas for the past 5 days fleeing Mardi Gras with my sister and 2 gal pals, but God has a sense of humor and we were in San Antonio on the day they happened to have THEIR Mardi Gras boat parade! We just had to laugh. I understand that area would have been happy to have gotten some of the rain Southeastern Louisiana had this past week. As to weather in Louisiana, after unusually cold periods, we are not in unseasonable warm temperatures (upper 70s). What do you see, in general, for the remainder of winter? I hope your family and you are well.

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