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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Another blast of Arctic air is set to plummet south once again. I’m, a little perplexed as why the majority of Global models tend to indicate a NEGATIVE Arctic Oscillation, as Stratospheric temperature and pressure anomalies, tend to weigh toward a POSITIVE Arctic Oscillation. At any rate the consensus seems to be a negative AO and a positive PNA (Pacific – North American Oscillation).
AO AND PNA FORECAST
STRATOSPHERIC 50 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES
ARCTIC OSCILLATION PHASES IN RELATION TO STRATOSPHERIC TEMP.
The coldest of this air should reach down to the Gulf Coast area, and into the Florida Panhandle on or about 4-6 Feb. Based on modeling, extremely cold air seems to be confined further north this time.
GFS INTERPOLATED STATION MIN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST 174 HOURS
GFS AND ECMWF MIN. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
The following are projected snowfall accumulation amounts from the GFS and ECMWF for the 7 and 10 day forecast, utilizing the Kuchera algorithm:
GFS 7 AND 10 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
The following graphic will take you to forecast precipitation types animation
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS