WINTER WEATHER BRIEF…ISSUED JAN. 29, 2018…2:50 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

Another blast of Arctic air is set to plummet south once again.  I’m, a little perplexed as why the majority of Global models tend to indicate a NEGATIVE Arctic Oscillation, as Stratospheric temperature and pressure anomalies, tend to weigh toward a POSITIVE Arctic Oscillation.   At any rate the consensus seems to be a negative AO and a positive PNA (Pacific – North American Oscillation).

AO AND PNA FORECAST

STRATOSPHERIC 50 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALIES


ARCTIC OSCILLATION PHASES IN RELATION TO STRATOSPHERIC TEMP.

The coldest of this air should reach down to the Gulf Coast area, and into the Florida Panhandle on or about 4-6 Feb.  Based on modeling, extremely cold air seems to be confined further north this time.

GFS INTERPOLATED STATION MIN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST 174 HOURS

GFS AND ECMWF MIN. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS


The following are projected snowfall accumulation amounts from the GFS and ECMWF for the 7 and 10 day forecast, utilizing the Kuchera algorithm:

GFS 7 AND 10 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

ECMWF

The following graphic will take you to forecast precipitation types animation

CMC GDPS

INTELLICAST RADAR ANIMATION (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATED RADAR)

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK (CLICK FOR UPDATED IMAGE)

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON IMAGE, THEN YOUR AREA)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to WINTER WEATHER BRIEF…ISSUED JAN. 29, 2018…2:50 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Oh NO! feel better soon! I have a head and chest cold, coughing and sneezing, but no fever or aches and pains.So not the flu. Appetite good. Drinking a lot of hot tea with lemon and honey. Getting some morning snow here in Stamford this morning. Should change to rain by Noon. Little to no final accumulations. Maybe an inch or so before the change over.

  2. dellamom says:

    We know we have had a bad winter down here so far when 32 seems GOOD to us! Thanks for the good information, Storm. We put a pool in last year. It rained for a month after we dug the hole, and the pool and its screened enclosure were finished just before the unusually cold weather started. I used it 4 times and have been looking at it out the back window, sometime with snow on it, thinking about all the Christmases it was so hot we were in shorts. Given the unusual winter, I’m thinking I’ll be able to swim by August! SIGH!!! Thanks again for all your hard work and good insights and experience. Stat safe and God Bless!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks. Storm. We are expecting a light snow event here in Sw CT. Monday night/Tuesday. no more than a coating to 2″. Higher amounts likely East of us. Still, another event possible late Thursday, into Friday. Too early to predict that one, but it should NOT be a big one. We’ll see! Then, after that, maybe something again next Monday into Tuesday. Definitely cooling down some, but not the extreme cold of the first half of January.

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