Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
Good evening everyone!
Looks like the large low/storm I mentioned a few days ago, is angry. Observations, satellite imagery and projections from both the global models and NAM regional model continue to indicated the area of low pressure moving right along the U.S. east coast, will and is undergoing “Explosive Cyclogenesis”. This is forecast to be a quick moving storm, and could be near the vicinity of Cape Cod within the next 24-30 hours. Models differ somewhat on exact track, however this low should track closer to the coast than previously forecast. Based on my analysis, looks as if the NAM and CRAS modeling may be accurate on this system. This low is forecast to attain near 950mb to sub 950mb pressures. Sustained winds of up to hurricane force are very possible, with higher gusts. Areas on the northern side of the system, may experience some coastal flooding and beach erosion. The backside of this low will pull down more bitterly cold air, and along with precip, will create blizzard conditions from a small portion of SC near the coast, northward to Maine. Seas well off the New England coast, near the storm center, may very well exceed 40+ft. Boaters and shipping interests should seek safe haven immediately.
CRAS MODEL 30-36 HOUR FORECAST
NAM 24-30 HOUR FORECAST
NAM 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
GFS “KUCHERA” 144 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL
ECMWF 72 HOUR
ECMWF 144 HOUR
GFS AND ECMWF48 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST
Residents under warned areas should take the necessary action as warranted by their local NWS office. Click on the following map for local NWS real time updates. Once you click the map, click on your area. PLEASE…REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR PETS INDOORS!
Elsewhere, it appears an area of low pressure has developed in the Caribbean south of Jamaica. The last visible/IR2 satellite loop images tend to indicate a fairly organized low.
Based on analysis of both the GFS and ECMWF, development is not forecast, and wind shear values are forecast to remain high.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS