POWERFUL COASTAL LOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…SUSPECT AREA CARIBBEAN SEA SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 03, 2018…9:20 P.M. EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As always, follow the NHC and Local NWS office guidelines, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good evening everyone!

Looks like the large low/storm I mentioned a few days ago, is angry.  Observations, satellite imagery and projections from both the global models and NAM regional model continue to indicated the area of low pressure moving right along the U.S. east coast, will and is undergoing “Explosive Cyclogenesis”.  This is forecast to be a quick moving storm, and could be near the vicinity of Cape Cod within the next 24-30 hours.  Models differ somewhat on exact track, however this low should track closer to the coast than previously forecast.  Based on my analysis, looks as if the NAM and CRAS modeling may be accurate on this system. This low is forecast to attain near 950mb to sub 950mb pressures.  Sustained winds of up to hurricane force are very possible, with higher gusts.  Areas on the northern side of the system, may experience some coastal flooding and beach erosion.  The backside of this low will pull down more bitterly cold air, and along with precip, will create blizzard conditions from a small portion of SC near the coast, northward to Maine.  Seas well off the New England coast, near the storm center, may very well exceed 40+ft.  Boaters and shipping interests should seek safe haven immediately.

CRAS MODEL 30-36 HOUR FORECAST

NAM 24-30 HOUR FORECAST


GFS

ECMWF

NAM 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

GFS “KUCHERA” 144 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL
ECMWF 72 HOUR

ECMWF 144 HOUR

WAVE WATCH (STORMSURF) U.S. EAST COAST WIND AND WAVE MODEL LOOP (CLICK IMAGE FOR ANIMATION)

GFS AND ECMWF48 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST


Residents under warned areas should take the necessary action as warranted by their local NWS office.  Click on the following map for local NWS real time updates.  Once you click the map, click on your area.  PLEASE…REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR PETS INDOORS!

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST 24 HOUR FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK

Elsewhere, it appears an area of low pressure has developed in the Caribbean south of Jamaica.  The last visible/IR2 satellite loop images tend to indicate a fairly organized low.

RAMSDIS TROPICAL FLOATER LOOP

Based on analysis of both the GFS and ECMWF, development is not forecast, and wind shear values are forecast to remain high.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to POWERFUL COASTAL LOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…SUSPECT AREA CARIBBEAN SEA SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 03, 2018…9:20 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm and everyone, well our “Blizzard is winding down. Snow is light/moderate, as the storm system is pulling away. I’ve received 8-10″ of snow, hard to tell because of the strong winds, constantly 20-30mph., and gusts to around 45mph. Temp. has been around 21 F all day. Snow started at about 3AM, Should be over completely by 5 or 6 this evening. The strong winds will continue well into Friday, maybe even Saturday morning. High Temps. Friday and Sat. only 10-12F. Low 0-5F Below Zero!. Wind chills will be 10-20F Below Zero. Moderating some by Sunday.Funny, due to the configuration of the storm, almost the whole time winds were NNW. NOT NE like a traditional Nor’Easter. BTW, Lowest the Barometer got down to was 29.19” — just starting to rise slowly now.

  2. Dellamom says:

    thank you for keeping us posted on ongoing developments, even while maintaining your work and church scheduled. it is much appreciated. we are in our third night of a five-night hard freeze cycle, virtually unheard of in Southeastern Louisiana. prayers to all in harm’s way.

  3. originallt says:

    Right now my Baro. is at 30.12″ and falling slowly. 19F at 9:48 PM.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I’ll report in during the day to give you conditions up here. Snow intensity, winds, and barometric pressure.

  5. Elliot Lisak says:

    Thank you for your efforts.

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