TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 17, 2017…7:20 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES:       6-8
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4

CURRENT TOTALS
STORMS: 4
HURRICANES: 0
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0

U.S. LANDFALLS: 1

Good evening all!

Well, it was a bit of a surprise, seeing the struggle of the disturbance in satellite loop imagery earlier, but as of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the NHC named the disturbance approaching the Lesser Antilles, Tropical Storm DON.  Hurricane Hunter aircraft did find a closed, small but well defined circulation, and there has been a flareup in convection close to the center.

DON SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK)

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS

CARIBBEAN RADAR CANVAS (CLICK FOR ANIMATIONS)

Tropical Storm DON is currently under an area where shear is light. Albeit there is not a notable outflow channel, the upper pattern is somewhat divergent.  Winds are light enough in that, it is allowing the system to focus its heat energy into more of a column, vice being spread out from strong shear.  Based on the GFS wind shear forecast, a partial upper level anticyclone may develop over DON, and low shear is forecast to remain for the next 24-36 hours.  Based on this, and SST’s of 29C, DON could continue to slowly strengthen tonight and on Tuesday.  As the storm enters the Caribbean, an increase in westerly wind shear is forecast, which should begin to weaken the system.  Given these parameters, I concur with the NHC current intensity forecast, however 18Z intensity models are in closer agreement, and while I do not believe DON will become a hurricane, I cannot totally rule out a stronger Tropical Storm than what NHC is indicating.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP FROM CIMSS

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 17/2100Z 11.2N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 11.8N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 12.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 12.2N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1800Z…DISSIPATED

DON continues to move to the west, being embedded in a strong east to west flow south of the subtropical ridge axis.  Based on forecast steering maps and dynamic model guidance, I concur with the NHC forecast track, which lies close to the TVCA consensus model.

CURRENT STEERING

DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE 18Z

The following are forecast 72 hour rainfall totals from the GFS and ECMWF

GFS

ECMWF

The following are current WATCHES and WARNINGS associated with Tropical Storm DON:

NHC WATCH AND WARNING GRAPHIC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grenada.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 36
hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should
monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

Residents under these watch and warning areas should complete preparations for POSSIBLE FLOODING.

I should have another update sometime late tomorrow morning

Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 17, 2017…7:20 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Yup, Don looks to be a ” Low Rider”! LOL Pretty far South, that is.

  2. greg goodman says:

    mr storm is this average to have 4 name storms by this date?

  3. John Crouch says:

    Hey Storm- Always great to see your updates. I don’t reply usually but it struck me just now how much I value your insight.
    Thank-you

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