TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 09, 2017…4:20 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES:       6-8
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4

CURRENT TOTALS
STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0

U.S. LANDFALLS: 1

Good day all!

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the remnant of T.D. 4 to be located near 22.0N:60.0W

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGE)

Based on current steering, this should be moving WNW.  In about 48 hours, steering shifts to more of a westerly flow, through 96 hours.  I am not looking for re-generation of this area, as upper level winds are forecast to be marginal, and dry air surrounds this feature.  An upper level low is noted north of the remnant.  This should most likely affect the Florida peninsula as an open wave in about 4-5 days from 12Z this morning.

CARIBBEAN WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

Elsewhere, I am currently monitoring a poorly defined wave that has exited the African west coast.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGES)

Upper level winds are currently favorable, or conducive for development (PINK CIRCLE), however mid level water vapor imagery indicates a lack of moisture surrounding the wave.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR

MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR

This wave is forecast to continue westward during the next 5 – 6 days, approaching the Windward islands, then entering the Caribbean.  Analysis of the global models using the 12Z run, al of the global models with the exception of the NAVGEM, CMC,  and ECMWF tend to develop a weak tropical storm.  NAVGEM and ECMWF do not indicate any development, and the CMC keeps this very weak, then shows a very weak closed low over the Bahamas by the 15th of Jul.  The GFS has been the most consistent in run to run, and indicates a tropical storm to be east of Florida by the 19th, and bringing it ashore IVO FL. / GA. border.  Based on forecast steering, this seems the most plausible scenario as far as track guidance.  However, I am a bit skeptical at this time as far as any development of this wave.  The GFS indicates upper level winds to remain favorable, with an established upper level anti-cyclone over the system, and favorable RH values at 850 – 700 mb levels.  On the other hand, analysis of the ECMWF, albeit indicating somewhat favorable RH values at 850 – 700 mb, it also indicates a drier environment at the 500 mb level, or mid atmosphere, as it closes to east of the Windward islands.  So, development will depend on which model is correct.  IF the GFS is correct on all levels, then slow development could occur with this wave.  IF the ECMWF is providing the correct solution, then development may not occur at all.  Another thing I’d like to address on this, the NAO is at a fairly good positive, and the sub-tropical ridge will be averaging 1031 mb over this period of time, which should equate to faster easterly surface winds, and possibly more SAL in the mix.  Given the fact trade winds may be faster, I don’t see how decent surface convergence can occur.  But, as I stated, I will be monitoring this wave as it moves across the MDR for any significant changes.

GFS FORECAST

CMC FORECAST

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

GFS AND ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS

CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER AFRICA VIA METEOSAT WATER VAPOR LOOP

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) FORECAST

As a reminder, we have to remember climatology.  We are currently in climatology as indicated by the arrow in the following graphic:

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGY

Based on my analysis of MJO forecast maps and 200 mb vertical velocity potential maps, we should begin to see more favorable conditions, and possible increase in activity, starting shortly after mid month, approximately after the 17th.

MJO FORECAST MAPS

GFS WEEK 2 MJO

CFS 40 DAY MJO
200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST

Dr. Phil Klotzbach from CSU has updated his seasonal hurricane outlook, and has increased his totals to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.  The following link contains his full report…this is worth reading, trust me!
http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/07/2017-07.pdf

I will try to update as I can, as my work schedule this week has me working everyday except Wed.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 09, 2017…4:20 P.M. EDT

  1. Ron says:

    Storm, quick question on the outlook for 2017. We seem to be having a recurring trough in the east with high pressure anchored in the west (similar to 1997 and 2013 perhaps). I know the predicted ACE for 2017 is higher than both those years. 1997 featured an El Nino unlike 2013 if my information is correct. If the troughing in the eastern half of the country holds, wouldn’t that serve to turn any systems headed toward the US back out to sea? That seems to have been especially true in 1997. I know it appears that we’re likely to have an above average number of storms, but if the trough is frequent enough, wouldn’t that reduce the likelihood of a US landfalling storm? Thanks!

    • Well, if that setup were to continue, most likely. However here lately, the NAO has been fairly to strongly positive. This not on increases the strength of the sub-tropical ridge upstream, it will also act to amplify the trof downstream, hence recurving systems. The longer range ECMWF seasonal continues to indicate higher pressure heights to occur farther north in the Atlantic, which would tend to send systems more toward the west.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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