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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 1
Good day all!
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the remnant of T.D. 4 to be located near 22.0N:60.0W
Based on current steering, this should be moving WNW. In about 48 hours, steering shifts to more of a westerly flow, through 96 hours. I am not looking for re-generation of this area, as upper level winds are forecast to be marginal, and dry air surrounds this feature. An upper level low is noted north of the remnant. This should most likely affect the Florida peninsula as an open wave in about 4-5 days from 12Z this morning.
Elsewhere, I am currently monitoring a poorly defined wave that has exited the African west coast.
Upper level winds are currently favorable, or conducive for development (PINK CIRCLE), however mid level water vapor imagery indicates a lack of moisture surrounding the wave.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR
This wave is forecast to continue westward during the next 5 – 6 days, approaching the Windward islands, then entering the Caribbean. Analysis of the global models using the 12Z run, al of the global models with the exception of the NAVGEM, CMC, and ECMWF tend to develop a weak tropical storm. NAVGEM and ECMWF do not indicate any development, and the CMC keeps this very weak, then shows a very weak closed low over the Bahamas by the 15th of Jul. The GFS has been the most consistent in run to run, and indicates a tropical storm to be east of Florida by the 19th, and bringing it ashore IVO FL. / GA. border. Based on forecast steering, this seems the most plausible scenario as far as track guidance. However, I am a bit skeptical at this time as far as any development of this wave. The GFS indicates upper level winds to remain favorable, with an established upper level anti-cyclone over the system, and favorable RH values at 850 – 700 mb levels. On the other hand, analysis of the ECMWF, albeit indicating somewhat favorable RH values at 850 – 700 mb, it also indicates a drier environment at the 500 mb level, or mid atmosphere, as it closes to east of the Windward islands. So, development will depend on which model is correct. IF the GFS is correct on all levels, then slow development could occur with this wave. IF the ECMWF is providing the correct solution, then development may not occur at all. Another thing I’d like to address on this, the NAO is at a fairly good positive, and the sub-tropical ridge will be averaging 1031 mb over this period of time, which should equate to faster easterly surface winds, and possibly more SAL in the mix. Given the fact trade winds may be faster, I don’t see how decent surface convergence can occur. But, as I stated, I will be monitoring this wave as it moves across the MDR for any significant changes.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS AND ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) FORECAST
As a reminder, we have to remember climatology. We are currently in climatology as indicated by the arrow in the following graphic:
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGY
Based on my analysis of MJO forecast maps and 200 mb vertical velocity potential maps, we should begin to see more favorable conditions, and possible increase in activity, starting shortly after mid month, approximately after the 17th.
MJO FORECAST MAPS
GFS WEEK 2 MJO
CFS 40 DAY MJO
200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FORECAST
Dr. Phil Klotzbach from CSU has updated his seasonal hurricane outlook, and has increased his totals to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes. The following link contains his full report…this is worth reading, trust me!
I will try to update as I can, as my work schedule this week has me working everyday except Wed.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS