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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 1
Good day all!
INVEST 94L has changed little in organization, however the last few frames in satellite loop imagery tends to indicate the system may be trying to become slightly better organized. Maximum winds have increased to 35 mph, and estimated central pressure is down to 1009 mb (29.80 in.). The NHC has designated a HIGH probability (80%) for tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
Based on the 12Z ATCF BTK product, the following information was available on INVEST 94L…a forward motion over the past 12 hours, calculated to be W @ 5mph (nearly stationary):
8:00 AM AST Tue. Jul 04
MOVEMENT: NEARLY STATIONARY
PRESSURE: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 mph
Analysis of the current wind shear products indicate that 94L is currently located in an area where wind shear/upper level winds are a little more conducive at the moment than what we saw yesterday. The divergence which is taking place, is attributed to the system sitting east of a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough), indicated by the arrows pointing to the trof axis. You can follow the brown streamlines from there, which arc in a semi clockwise fashion.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
Based on the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are forecast to become favorable, or conducive for development within the next 24 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over, or close the system. This feature is forecast to move in tandem with the system through 108 hours (4.5 days) from 12Z today. Thereafter, the upper level anticyclone is forecast to dissipate, and a TUTT is forecast to be located to the N to NNE of 94L. This will produce wind shear over the system.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
IF this is accurate, then we should see a weakening of whatever may have developed. Given the slow motion over the past few days, the drier air noted has moved a little further from the disturbance. TPW values remain high around the system, in relation to the last reported center location (arrow and white circle in the TPW image). Based on this, the disturbance should be able to slowly mix out any dry air that could possibly be entrained.
94L DRY AIR IMAGERY
94L TPW IMAGERY
Based on this analysis, INVEST 94L could become a tropical depression during the next 24-36 hours. Intensity guidance models indicate 94L could become a Category ONE hurricane by 72-96 hours. At the moment, I am a little skeptical of this, given that the GFS and ECMF both keep this a weaker system, and the limited time upper level winds are forecast to be favorable. Bear in mind however, that conditions can and do change quickly sometimes.
12Z ATCF INTENSITY GUIDANCE
The general motion of 94L is very slowly toward the west and nearly stationary. The system is located to the south of the sub-tropical ridge, and the current steering flow can bee seen. In about 36-48 hours, more of a WNW motion should occur, as the system should begin to head toward a slight weakness near the western periphery of the ridge. The majority of the global models appear to keep this offshore of the U.S. coast, with a possible re-curvature. The current outlier is the CMC, which shows a stronger system making landfall IVO Virginia. The GFS keeps this system weak, and then dissipates it and opens it to a wave by days 8 and 9. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring this to about the same distance near the U.S. Right now, it is still again TOO EARLY to speculate as to whether or not this will have an effect on the coastal U.S., or whether the system does re-curve (which has been depicted over the past couple of days). Forecast steering maps out to 144 hours, still indicate a trof to dig down over the U.S. east coast, which would indicate a recurving system. 500 mb anomaly maps from both the GFS and ECMWF, do indicate somewhat of a weakness in the ridge, near the U.S east coast. The system should head for this, however with the setup as seen, two possibilities exist…the system makes the recurve, or it could stall and meander, possibly missing the trof. Again, I’ll reiterate, various factors will determine where this eventually goes. First, ALL track guidance at the moment should be considered preliminary, until this system becomes better organized and defined. Strength of the system, forward motion and timing of the forecast trof, are also a big factor in track guidance determination.
12Z ATCF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
GFS AND ECMWF 500MB ANOMALY MAPS
Elsewhere, the following is a METEOSAT loop of activity over the African continent.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS