TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 04, 2017…2:00 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
HURRICANES:       6-8
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4

CURRENT TOTALS
STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0

U.S. LANDFALLS: 1

Good day all!

INVEST 94L  has changed little in organization, however the last few frames in satellite loop imagery tends to indicate the system may be trying to become slightly better organized. Maximum winds have increased to 35 mph, and estimated central pressure is down to 1009 mb (29.80 in.).  The NHC has designated a HIGH probability (80%) for tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

Based on the 12Z ATCF BTK product, the following information was available on INVEST 94L…a forward motion  over the past 12 hours, calculated to be W @ 5mph (nearly stationary):

8:00 AM AST Tue. Jul 04
LOCATION: 9.4N…34.2W
MOVEMENT: NEARLY STATIONARY
PRESSURE: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 35 mph

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LOOP)

Analysis of the current wind shear products indicate that 94L is currently located in  an area where wind shear/upper level winds are a little more conducive at the moment than what we saw yesterday.  The divergence which is taking place, is attributed to the system sitting east of a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough), indicated by the arrows pointing to the trof axis.  You can follow the brown streamlines from there, which arc in a semi clockwise fashion.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

Based on the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are forecast to become favorable, or conducive for development within the next 24 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over, or close the system.  This feature is forecast to move in tandem with the system through 108  hours (4.5 days) from 12Z today.  Thereafter, the upper level anticyclone is forecast to dissipate, and a TUTT is forecast to be located to the N to NNE of 94L.  This will produce wind shear over the system.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


IF this is accurate, then we should see a weakening of whatever may have developed.  Given the slow motion over the past few days, the drier air noted has moved a little further from the disturbance.  TPW values remain high around the system, in relation to the last reported center location (arrow and white circle in the TPW image).  Based on this, the disturbance should be able to slowly mix out any dry air that could possibly be entrained.

94L DRY AIR IMAGERY

94L TPW IMAGERY

Based on this analysis, INVEST 94L could become a tropical depression during the next 24-36 hours.  Intensity guidance models indicate 94L could become a Category ONE hurricane by 72-96 hours.  At the moment, I am a little skeptical of this, given that the GFS and ECMF both keep this a weaker system, and the limited time upper level winds are forecast to be favorable.  Bear in mind however, that conditions can and do change quickly sometimes.

12Z ATCF INTENSITY GUIDANCE

The general motion of 94L is very slowly toward the west and nearly stationary.  The system is located to the south of the sub-tropical ridge, and the current steering flow can bee seen.  In about 36-48 hours, more of a WNW motion should occur, as the system should begin to head toward a slight weakness near the western periphery of the ridge.  The majority of the global models appear to keep this offshore of the U.S. coast, with a possible re-curvature.  The current outlier is the CMC, which shows a stronger system making landfall IVO Virginia.  The GFS keeps this system weak, and then dissipates it and opens it to a wave by days 8 and 9.  Both the GFS and ECMWF bring this to about the same distance near the U.S.  Right now, it is still again TOO EARLY to speculate as to whether or not this will have an effect on the coastal U.S., or whether the system does re-curve (which has been depicted over the past couple of days).  Forecast steering maps out to 144 hours, still indicate a trof to dig down over the U.S. east coast, which would indicate a recurving system.  500 mb anomaly maps from both the GFS and ECMWF, do indicate somewhat of a weakness in the ridge, near the U.S east coast.  The system should head for this, however with the setup as seen, two possibilities exist…the system makes the recurve, or it could stall and meander, possibly missing the trof.  Again, I’ll reiterate, various factors will determine where this eventually goes.  First, ALL track guidance at the moment should be considered preliminary, until this system becomes better organized and defined.  Strength of the system, forward motion and timing of the forecast trof, are also a big factor in track guidance determination.

CURRENT MEAN LAYER STEERING (CLICK FOR LARGE IMAGE)

ECMWF EPS

GEFS EPS

CMC EPS

12Z ATCF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

GFS AND ECMWF 500MB ANOMALY MAPS

Elsewhere, the following is a METEOSAT loop of activity over the African continent.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT (AFRICA) LOOP

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 04, 2017…2:00 P.M. EDT

  1. Kikosxm says:

    Hello my friend and my tropical weather Guru….
    Hope everything is OK.
    As you can see, this hurricane season IS starting early, especially for the carribean.
    Truly, what do you Recon for this new formation and the futur one for Saint Martin/ Sint Maarten this year?

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