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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0
U.S. LANDFALLS: 1
Good day all!
The tropical wave located in the central Atlantic, located approximately 650 WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands, has been designated INVEST 94L. The system is currently moving just south of due west at about 4 mph, or nearly stationary. The NHC has designated a HIGH probability (70%) for tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.
Based on the 12Z ATCF BTK product, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM AST Mon. Jul 03
MOVEMENT: NEARLY STATIONARY
PRESSURE: 1011 mb / 29.85 in
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 30 mph
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the disturbance appears to be getting slowly better organized.
A review of loop imagery for the past 2 days reveals, that the original AOI and the wave I mentioned yesterday which had just exited the African coast, may have been a part of one large, broad area within the West African Monsoon Circulation, and appears to now have formed one area.
Current maximum winds are estimated to be near 30 mph. Analysis of the current wind shear products indicate that 94L is currently located in an area where wind shear/upper level winds are marginally conducive at the moment. Partial divergence aloft was noted, albeit there is no established outflow channel/jet at the moment. The divergence which is taking place, is attributed to the system sitting east of a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough), indicated by the arrow pointing to the trof axis. You can follow the brown streamlines from there, which arc in a semi clockwise fashion.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
Based on the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, upper level winds are forecast to become favorable, or conducive for development within the next 36 – 48 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast to develop over the system. This feature is forecast to move in tandem with the system through to day 5. By day 6 (138 – 144 hours) this feature begins to collapse, and almost dissipates in day 7. By day 8.5 – 10, the upper level feature is forecast to become re-established.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST (BROWN ARROW 94L LOCATION)
Analysis of current and forecast PWAT, RH850 (Relative Humidity @ the 850 mb level), and RH700 (RH @ 700 MB) indicate favorable values through 10 days. However, currently, there is a good portion of dry air to the north of the system. Thus far, the dry air hasn’t seemed to make much of a negative impact, which is probably due to the PW levels surrounding 94L in a limited area around the circulation. My thoughts at the moment on this is, 94L is in fairly weak steering currents right now…this may allow for the drier air to move away from the system before it has a negative impact. Based on analysis of all these parameters, INVEST 94L should to continue to slowly close off a surface circulation, and should convection increase near or over the center, we may see a tropical depression during the next 36 – 48 hours. PWAT = Total Precipitable Water. OHC = Ocean Heat Content.
94L PWAT, DRY AIR, AND OHC
Analysis of initial intensity guidance indicates the most used models for intensity, show 94L attaining strong T.S. to CAT 1 Hurricane status in 96 hours. Based on the forecast information at hand (given if the model information is accurate), I cannot rule this out at the moment, though I am more inclined to prefer T.S. status at the moment until I can see what happens with the current dry air situation.
12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 94L is currently within a very weak steering regime. However, within 24-36 hours from 12Z this morning, steering current are supposed to strengthen, and 94L should begin to move more toward the west-northwest (WNW). Based on forecast steering, a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge is supposed to strengthen, as a trof digs down over the SEUS in about 4-5 days. The current weakness is shown in the current steering layers map, where the arrow points.
CURRENT STEERING LAYERS MAP
Based on forecast steering, I have to agree with the current dynamic model guidance, and prefer the TVCA track, which is identical to the TVCN model. THIS IS CONSIDERED TO BE PRELIMINARY however, as steering can change. My reasoning behind this at the moemnt is, the GFS begins to re-curve this system in the northern Bahamas area, the CMC brings it into FL., and the ECMWF indicates it could come a little further west, or stall. The GFS is showing more of a weakness near the U.S. east coast, while the ECMWF mean indicates rising pressure heights, north of the system. Of course, this will most likely change a few times, as we’ve seen earlier this season. IF and WHEN this system becomes better organized, we should better model guidance regarding forecast track. I will continue to monitor this system over the next 2 days for any significant changes.
ECMWF HEIGHT ANOMALIES
Elsewhere, we may see better conditions over the Atlantic basin most likely sometime after mid month, as the MJO is forecast to continue to propagate eastward, and 200 mb vertical velocity potentials are forecast to become a little more favorable.
200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL FOR JUN. 17
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS