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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 14-16
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0
Good evening all!
You’ll notice I took the opportunity to update my seasonal forecast. Based on the recent updates from the Australian BOM which utilizes 8 climate models, the current update from the CFSv2 climate model, and the CPC NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble), results indicate we should remain in ENSO Neutral conditions, now with a cold bias. Nino forecast plumes and SST anomaly maps still indicate an El Nino Modoki situation. Based on analysis of the CPC ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) mean chart, based more on trend, with some weight to values, I have changed some of the analog years, which the following represent closest the trends and values based on the climate models. Of course, there are always other factors to consider as far as development throughout the season.
CPC NMME ENSEMBLE ALL MEMBERS
To view those seasons activity, you’ll have to visit both links, as the Unisys site only goes to 2010.
This afternoon’s satellite loop images indicate various areas of disturbed weather. One area is located in the BOC, and has shown an increase in convection over the past few hours. This convection is associated with a weakening upper level low to is north, and a surface trof of lower pressure currently over the BOC. The current wind shear map tends to indicate upper level winds to be marginal at the moment, with a partial upper level anticyclone centered south of the disturbance, over Mexico, west of the Yucatan peninsula. The 12Z shear forecast from the GFS suggests upper level winds may relax briefly, with NW shear increasing in 36 – 42 hours. I am going to monitor this area over the next 24 hours, given that water vapor seems to indicate decent moisture, and the GFS PWAT initialization indicates sufficient PW totals over the area. Any further organization would be slow, and the disturbance has a very limited amount of time before conditions become unfavorable. Forecast steering suggests at the moment, that this move WNW into MX over the next 48 hours. I give this a low probability for actual development right now.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
GFS SHEAR FORECAST GOMEX
Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located just west of the Lesser Antilles. I am not expecting any development from this wave, as it is encountering about 40 – 45 kts of westerly shear. The GFS shear forecast indicates wind shear will be in the Caribbean during the next 5 – 6 days. The longer range shear model indicates wind shear may remain in place over much of the Caribbean for at least the next 10 days.
Another tropical wave is noted near 8.0N; 43W. Cyclonic turning is noted with this wave, however convection is limited. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air to the north of this wave, due to African dust, which is creating a somewhat stable environment near the area.
Current wind shear shows somewhat of an upper level anticyclone centered just slightly north of this wave. Upper level winds are forecast to remain somewhat favorable during the next 30 – 36 hours. There could be some slightly better organization from this, however, as with Bret, as this nears the northern South American coast, and Windward Islands, wind shear is forecast to increase. Based on this, I do not see tropical cyclone formation occurring from this wave.
In fact, if modeling is correct (MJO, 200 hPa Vertical Velocity forecast, wind shear forecast, African dust loading forecast), we may be in for a little dry spell. This occurred last season, in that we had ZERO named systems for the entire month of July. T.S. Danielle of 2016 was named JUN 19, and lasted through JUN 21. The next named system, Earl, did not occur until AUG. 02, 2016. Analysis of global models this afternoon did not indicate any development regarding any organized systems or cyclone development, through at least the next 10 days. The outlier is the CMC which develops something north of the Lesser Antilles at around 5 days out. I have to discount this solution, as the wind shear forecast shows westerly shear over the area at the time in question. In fact, the GFS indicates wind shear over much of the Caribbean and portions of the Atlantic for the next 10 days.
CMC 5 DAY FORECAST
200 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES 5 AND 10 DAY FORECAST (Blues and greens are upward motion and divergence aloft, orange and reds are downward motion and convergence aloft)
AFRICAN DUST FORECAST FROM NASA GEOS MODEL
I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes that may occur in the pattern during the next 2 days. I once again have to work Wed. – Sat this week, so any updates will be based on whether or not there are any threats to the U.S. mainland or Caribbean islands.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS