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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 12-15
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0
Good evening all!
Satellite imagery this evening shows an area of convection flaring up over the Yucatan peninsula. This activity is due to enhancement from an upper level low situated over the GOMEX. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air over most of the Atlantic basin, with the area east of the islands being attributed to the SAL (African dust).
Satellite imagery also indicates the presence of a tropical wave that has exited the African coast, near 7.0N;20W.
Analysis this evening of the global models doesn’t really indicate any tropical development through the next 7-10 days..The GFS had previously wanted to develop the current wave mentioned, however the model dissipates this feature once in the CATL. The GFS did indicate a lowering of pressures briefly, but as stated, the model dissipates this area in about 8 – 9 days from 18Z (2:00 p.m. EDT) this afternoon.
Based on the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds really do not look conducive over the next 5 days, maybe marginal, but may begin to become a little more favorable around day 7 – 10 as shear become more easterly out to around 30W, with some pockets of lighter winds noted.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Based on analysis of the current MJO forecast, the MJO does not indicate a favorable signal over the Atlantic during the next couple of weeks. The 200 hPa vertical velocity forecast is pretty much indicating the same scenario at the moment, however indicating a more favorable signal over the GOMEX / W. Caribbean.
MJO FILTERED VP200 FORECAST
CHI 200 VERTICAL VELOCITIES 7 AND 14 DAY FORECAST
The GFS and ECMWF indicate some higher pressure heights in the Atlantic and western portion of Africa during this next week.
GFS NORMALIZED MSLP ANOMALIES
Based on these factors, I do not expect the current African wave to develop. However, I will continue to monitor this feature over the next few days in case there are any significant changes to the pattern.
As a side note, I am not sure if the NHC has changed the criteria for designating a “Tropical Cyclone”… as by the criteria, a tropical cyclone is a warm core low, that has maintained organized convection near or around a well defined circulation for at least 12 hours. At least the last time I checked. So based on this, Cindy should have been sub-tropical at best, as she never achieved “organized convection” around her center, until just prior to landfall,with maximum sustained winds remaining away from the low level circulation just prior to landfall.
Based on the recent ENSO update with all 8 climate models indicate ENSO NEUTRAL conditions, and the fact we’ve seen 3 storms already this year, 2 from when the season “officially” began, I am going to research analog years once more, and “neutral ENSO seasons (those which I can locate), and I may revise my storm numbers one last time (slightly).
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS