TROPICAL STORM BRET / POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN, 20, 2017…11:20 A.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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STORM W’s SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TOTAL STORMS: 12-15
HURRICANES:       6-7
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4

CURRENT TOTALS
STORMS: 3
HURRICANES: 0
MAJ. HURRICANES: 0

Good day everyone!

SPECIAL UPDATE:  At 2:00 p.m. EDT, PCT THREE was upgraded to Tropical Storm CINDY.  The storm is currently stationary, and information remains unchanged from the previous advisory.  A new local NWS statement has been issued for Galveston, TX.  Please scroll down and click on the graphic named HAZARDS FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS

Keep up with the latest NHC advisories by clicking on the following graphic:

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 93L in the GOMEX has become a little better defined as far as locating a low level circulation, as seen in satellite loop images.  As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on 93L or Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE:

11:00 AM AST Tue Jun 20
LOCATION: 25.9N…90.5W
MOVEMENT: NW 9 mph

PRESSURE: 999 mb / 29.50 in
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 40 mph

HURREVAC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MAPS

NOAA AND RAMSDIS CINDY FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP  (CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LOOPS)

The disturbance is moving toward the NW at 9 mph, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 – 36 hours.  Thereafter, it’s still a little touchy, as models are still in somewhat disagreement of the ridge/trof pattern over the central U.S. and east coast.  The ECMWF is still insisting on bringing it further west, into Texas, while the other models, with the exception of the NAM, take it into Louisiana.

GFS

CMC GGEM

NAM

ECMWF

Based on 12Z dynamic model guidance, and recent analysis of current satellite loop imagery, which may indicate the low level circulation may have shifted toward the recent convective burst, and current and forecast steering maps, I prefer the NHC forecast track at the moment, which is close to the consensus modeling.  Given the still slight uncertainty, and based on my opinion, this system has the potential to come ashore within the range of Galveston, TX. to Cameron LA.

12Z PTC THREE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

Regardless of where the actual center makes landfall, it appears the heaviest of weather will be from LA, eastward, as wind shear is keeping the convection east of the center.

Based on the current wind shear product, PTC THREE is still experiencing some brisk shear being caused by a ULL to its west.  Based on water vapor loop imagery, and the current wind shear forecast from the GFS and ECMWF, the upper low is forecast to back toward the NW in about 24-36 hours, placing the somewhat elliptical upper level anti cyclone closer to the center of circulation.  Based on this analysis, I believe this may attain Sub-Tropical storm status just prior to landfall (12-18 hours prior).  Albeit the system is warm core, it would most likely be classified as Sub-tropical, given the maximum sustained winds are away from the center, in a band, and currently deriving it’s energy from baroclinic processes.  I do concur with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment.

INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z…DISSIPATED

CURRENT WIND SHEAR

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF WIND SHEAR

Tropical Storm WATCHES and WARNINGS have been issued for Louisiana and a small portion of the east TX coastline.  Keep up to date with any changes in watches and warnings by clicking the graphic

The following graphic is linked to LOCAL NWS STATEMENTS for threat and impact and will instruct you of what actions, if needed, should be implemented.

HAZARDS FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY

Although not stated,  Tides could rise 1 – 3  feet above the mean, near, and to the right of where the center crosses the coast.

Both coastal flooding and some beach erosion is likely, as well as inland flooding.  The following are projected 5 day rainfall accumulations from the WPC.

WPC 5 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

The following map is linked to local NWS offices.  Click on the map, then click on your area for up to date statements and warnings regarding this system.  IF YOU ARE REQUIRED to take action, do so expeditiously.  STAY SAFE!

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY

NWS RIDGE RADAR SITES (CLICK ON MAP, THEN YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

TROPICAL STORM BRET
Tropical Storm BRET developed from INVEST 92L.  As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory, the following information was available on BRET:

11:00 AM AST Tue Jun 20
Location: 11.6°N 64.4°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 45 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS

BRET has been moving to the WNW, and based on current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 36 hours, before more of a westward track begins, and I agree with the current NHC forecast track.

BRET is currently beginning to feel the affects of wind shear as it approaches the base of a TUTT.  However, the storm still appears amazingly well in satellite loop imagery.  BRET should maintain its intensity during the next 18-24 hours, and should begin to weaken as wind shear increases thereafter.  Based on this, I do concur with the NHC intensity forecast, and BRENT should dissipate within the next 72 hours.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z…DISSIPATED

BRET FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP


Tropical Storm WATCHES and WARNINGS are still in effect:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Pedernales to Cumana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Venezuela Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

Residents in the path should monitor the progress of BRET over the next 72 hours, for any significant changes.

I will not be available for an update tomorrow…please use the sites I have provided for your safety.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL STORM BRET / POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN, 20, 2017…11:20 A.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    thank you for all your wisdom and experience, Storm. It looks like the entire north-central and north-eastern Gulf Coast is getting hammered, from the “heel” of Louisiana’s boot to the Florida panhandle … and it’s just the first day. Praying for all of us in the path and hoping that this is the worst we get this year. Last time Louisiana had a Cindy, it was followed by a Katrina (eastern half) and a Rita (western half). Good luck, Mac, as well as Greg and Mike in Alabama and Mississippi Granny. Prayers to those in Bret’s path as well.

  2. Donnie says:

    Sitting at 30.1/91.9. Mowed and trimmed the lawn. Waiting on the rain.

  3. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm! Looks like we have the potential to receive 9 to 11 inches of rain over the next 4 days down here in SE Louisiana.

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