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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Just for a refresher, based on analysis of various parameters of climate models for the previous month, and based on the closest analog years matching the parameters, my forecast for this hurricane season is as follows. However, if conditions become forecast to improve over the summer months, I ma have to make a slight increase in these totals. Please note, the following totals DO NOT include T.S. Arlene from April.
TOTAL STORMS: 12-15
MAJ. HURRICANES: 3-4
The NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone formation for INVEST 93L, and a HIGH (90%) probability of cyclone formation for INVEST 92L, during the next 5 days.
As of the 12Z ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 93L:
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 40 mph
PRESSURE: 1006 mb / 29.71″
MOVEMENT: N 13 mph
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates convection has increased over the past few hours, mainly east of the center,BUT remains east of the center of circulation, as the system is still encountering some wind shear being caused by an upper level low to it’s NW. The low can now be seen as a broad area near the 12Z reported position, which is now north of the Yucatan peninsula, on both the NOAA Shortwave loop and the RAMSDIS VIS/IR loop.
Based on the information contained in the ATCF BTK report above, should this become organized enough to be named, it would probably go straight to a T.S. or STS status, as the sustained winds are at 35 kts (40 mph).
Based on my analysis of the current and forecast wind shear products, upper level winds have improved over the Yucatan peninsula, however wind shear is noted over where the center is located, hence east weighted convection. The wind shear forecast still calls for a somewhat elongated upper level anticyclone to become further developed, and remain with the disturbance during the next 36 to 42 hours. Based on this analysis, some further, slow organization should occur, and I cannot rule out a sub-tropical or tropical storm developing, prior to landfall. The majority of the intensity guidance models indicate this within the next 24 hours, which would be sometime tomorrow morning. Of course, this all depends on how quickly the upper level pattern improves.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
12Z ATCF 93L INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Analysis of current and forecast steering maps tend to indicate more of a northward to NNW motion during the next 36-48 hours. Current steering shows a weakness to the north of the system, which is marked by the red oval I have placed on the map. This is what is currently imparting the more northward component on the system.
CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING
As we go out in time for the next 48 hours, steering will be dictated by the ridge and trof pattern forecast for the southern and central U.S., with some of the models indicating a ridge to the NW of the system, and one near the eastern seaboard. This is what most of the guidance models may be latching onto. The ECMWF has the furthest western scenario, which still indicates somewhere along the Texas cost. Most of the guidance models from yesterday have now shifted slightly further west. I need to point out, that the ECMWF EPS was uncanny last season as far as forecast track accuracy. Given all the players on the field, I feel forecast track is still low confidence, however it appears we can narrow it down somewhat. Again, until we get a better organized system, there will remain a split in the model guidance. This occurs, as the heat energy is spread or strewn out over a larger area due to the wind shear, so the models have a difficult time as to where the energy is going to be bundled.
NAM MESOSCALE MODEL
Based on the various track guidance, residents from Louisiana to Texas should monitor further progress of this system. Hopefully by sometime tomorrow, we can nail down a better track guidance package.
ATCF 12Z 93L DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
Winds to tropical storm force could be experienced at and to the right of where this system does come ashore. I am not expecting too much of a threat as far as winds, however residents to the east of the center will most likely receive heavy amounts of rainfall, which may lead to localized flooding. Please monitor NOAA Weather Radio and your local NWS office regarding this potential.
Elsewhere, the tropical wave INVEST 92L continues to move toward the west at a decent clip. As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO:
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 40 mph
PRESSURE: 1005 mb / 29.68″
MOVEMENT: W 25 mph
HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening indicates INVEST 92L appears to be somewhat better organized. Based on the latest wind shear product from CIMSS, 92L is juts approaching the based of a TUTT. This should provide some outflow over the system, but not much.
The wind shear forecast still indicates shear should lower, and a brief but small upper level anticyclone may develop over the system. If this is the case, we could see a brief tropical storm before the system enters the Caribbean. Once in the Caribbean, based on the wind shear forecast, and close proximity to Venezuela, this disturbance is forecast to dissipate. However, based on the very quick movement, and lack of a closed low level circulation based on the current Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA), I am skeptical of this attaining tropical storm status. I will continue to monitor the disturbance however, for any significant changes. Tropical Storm WATCHES and WARNINGS have been issued, and may be viewed along with Potential Hazards in the following Public Advisory link.
NHC 11:00 A.M. ADVISORY LINK:
INVEST 92L MTCSWA ANALYSIS
Based on analysis of dynamic guidance models and the ECMWF, I prefer the NHC official track on 92L.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS