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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
I wanted to start today, by posting a portion from my “about” page, which will provide some information on my background in forecasting:
I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts for anyone who wishes them, during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist, or FULL MEMBER under the following section of the AMS Interpretive Memorandum of July 2008:
• Article III Section 4 (C) is intended to encourage membership for individuals without a
professional degree satisfying the criteria in section (A) or (B) above, that have at least a
minimal educational background in the underlying science and substantial experience in
the field. The individual is expected to have undertaken a study program from an
accredited institution or institutions that has provided a minimum fundamental
knowledge in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and
services. Military training in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies,
applications, and services that did not lead to a degree is appropriate to satisfy the criteria
in this section. The requirements for three years of work experience in the last five years
can be fulfilled by experience that requires independent analysis, interpretation, and
professional judgment in the application of atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic
My studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course from Stennis Space Center, MS., Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX NEWS Channel 13 in Tampa FL., as well as extensive research on numerous meteorological topics related to Tropical Meteorology and Severe Weather, and satellite imagery interpretation. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clientele having been three different Coast Guard Commands. Given my forecast accuracy, I was awarded the United States Coast Guard Public Service Commendation, twice, for my forecasting skills during the 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons provided for the USCG Maintenance and Logistics Command, and Atlantic Area Command.
Satellite loop imagery this morning still shows some unsettled weather over the GOMEX from a decaying trof, and T.D. Calvin in the EPAC.
The NHC in Miami has designated a LOW (20%) probability over the next 5 days, of cyclone development over the area I have been mentioning over the past few days.
Based on reanalysis of 1000 – 500 mb thickness maps with surface wind flow, it appears this low develops from a combination of the easterly wind flow from the Caribbean, and the SW to westerly “monsoonal” flow from the EPAC. Modeling seems to suggest that the EPAC monsoon trof noses east over the Yucatan peninsula, BOC, and Gulf of Honduras region. As the easterlies and EPAC monsoon meet, this should initiate what we term “forced convergence” at the surface, and then, we begin to see evidence of the low pressure system.
Analysis of global models this morning indicates all global models are still in agreement of development beginning over the “suspect” area, and then the low moves into the BOC. Models indicate a closed low in about 5 – 6 days. The NCEP / EMC Cyclogenesis modeling page indicates a high probability of development in the 00 – 120 hour time period. I’m not going to post all the models, in order to shorten the synopsis.
NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS
Analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS still indicates upper level winds becoming conducive for development in about 5 days, which would be Sunday, and remaining favorable through day 9 (June 22) in the forecast period.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Models are in some agreement as far as strength, with the majority showing only a T.D., while the CMC is still the most bullish , but has come down in intensity, indicating a minimal T.S. The GFS and ECMWF show a weak system that eventually turns W to WNW, going into MX, with the GFS bringing it close to S. TX. The FIM models bring it toward LA., and the CMC over the western FL. Panhandle near Destin. Let me reiterate, it is WAY TOO EARLY, to be asking”where is this going”. You first have to have a developed low, with a well defined LLC, in order for computer guidance models to have something to “initialize”. I will be monitoring the area closely next week, and will try to have updates during my days off from my job.
For giggles and grins, I thought I’d post some new graphics. The first series is the current SAL forecast during the next 5 days. The second shows a strengthening AEJ (African Easterly Jet)
SAL CONCENTRATION FORECAST
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS