TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE W.CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT… ISSUED JUN. 12, 2017…12:20 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.

DONATIONS NEEDED

Good day everyone!

I wanted to start today, by posting a portion from my “about” page, which will provide some information on my background in forecasting:

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts for anyone who wishes them, during the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist, or FULL MEMBER under the following section of the AMS Interpretive Memorandum of July 2008:

• Article III Section 4 (C) is intended to encourage membership for individuals without a
professional degree satisfying the criteria in section (A) or (B) above, that have at least a
minimal educational background in the underlying science and substantial experience in
the field. The individual is expected to have undertaken a study program from an
accredited institution or institutions that has provided a minimum fundamental
knowledge in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and
services. Military training in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies,
applications, and services that did not lead to a degree is appropriate to satisfy the criteria
in this section. The requirements for three years of work experience in the last five years
can be fulfilled by experience that requires independent analysis, interpretation, and
professional judgment in the application of atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic
sciences.

My studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course from Stennis Space Center, MS., Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX NEWS Channel 13 in Tampa FL., as well as extensive research on numerous meteorological topics related to Tropical Meteorology and Severe Weather, and satellite imagery interpretation.  I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clientele having been three different Coast Guard Commands.  Given my forecast accuracy, I was awarded the United States Coast Guard Public Service Commendation, twice, for my forecasting skills during the 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons provided for the USCG Maintenance and Logistics Command, and Atlantic Area Command.

Satellite loop imagery this morning still shows some unsettled weather in the GOMEX, T.D.3E in the EPAC, and some convection over the Isthmus of Panama.  The latter, may be the precursor to the Caribbean / GOMEX development, which the global models have been so persistent with.  This is one of the few times I’ve seen the global models in good agreement, and being so persistent in run to run over a period of 72-96 hours.

NOAA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LOOP)

Based on my analysis of the global models this morning, all of the global models are onboard in one way or another, still indicating tropical development to initiate in approximately 5 – 7 days in the extreme W. Caribbean / BOC area.  A blend of model timing suggests this will be around Sat. June 17 – Sun. June 18, which works out well in my case, as I’ll have Sun. – Wed. to keep you updated on the situation.  It is noted, that the UKMET is finally onboard with development.  The GFS and ECMWF have been the most consistent on a run to run basis as far as lowering of MSLP normalized anomalies over the W. Caribbean in about 5 – 6 days, and as far as direction of movement (toward the NNW initially, then turning more WNW and nearing south TX.)  The GFS and ECMWF are not too thrilled about strengthening the system much, while the CMC indicates a mid grade T.S. and the NASA GEOS model wants to make a hurricane.  In any case, we are looking at some favorable conditions for the remainder of this week, into next week as far as wind shear reducing and upper level winds becoming favorable, the MJO going into phase 1 and remaining through June 19, and favorable upward vertical velocities as indicted by the CHI 200 forecast through 10 days.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES MAPS

CMC GGEM MSLP MAPS

FIM 8 AND FIM 9 MODELS MSLP MAPS

NAVGEM

UKMET

NASA GEOS


Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and TCHP or OHC (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential / Ocean Heat Content), I have to go with a weaker system at the moment, maybe a low end T.S.  Albeit the GFS indicates a favorable upper level pattern, still indicating an upper level anti-cyclone developing over the W. Caribbean and then GOMEX in days 5 – 10, TCHP levels really don’t support anything strong.  Right now, this is just my educated guess, and I’ll have to see what cards I’m dealt in the next 5 – 7 days before I can “tweak” my forecast.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


TCHP MAPS

MJO FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER VIEW)

CHI 200 VERTICAL VELOCITIES FORECAST

Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps (which really doesn’t mean anything at the present moment, until we see actual development of something with a well defined LLC), I am inclined at the moment, to put stock into the GFS and ECMWF track solution.  Is this definite?  Not by a long shot…but this is what everything suggests when you put it all together.

So, the bottom line is, to begin focusing our attention toward the W. Caribbean / BOC area this coming weekend.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE W.CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT… ISSUED JUN. 12, 2017…12:20 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for this and for your detailed answers to my earlier question. You are a blessing.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s