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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
I wanted to start today, by posting a portion from my “about” page, which will provide some information on my background in forecasting:
I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts for anyone who wishes them, during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist, or FULL MEMBER under the following section of the AMS Interpretive Memorandum of July 2008:
• Article III Section 4 (C) is intended to encourage membership for individuals without a
professional degree satisfying the criteria in section (A) or (B) above, that have at least a
minimal educational background in the underlying science and substantial experience in
the field. The individual is expected to have undertaken a study program from an
accredited institution or institutions that has provided a minimum fundamental
knowledge in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and
services. Military training in the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies,
applications, and services that did not lead to a degree is appropriate to satisfy the criteria
in this section. The requirements for three years of work experience in the last five years
can be fulfilled by experience that requires independent analysis, interpretation, and
professional judgment in the application of atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic
My studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course from Stennis Space Center, MS., Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX NEWS Channel 13 in Tampa FL., as well as extensive research on numerous meteorological topics related to Tropical Meteorology and Severe Weather, and satellite imagery interpretation. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clientele having been three different Coast Guard Commands. Given my forecast accuracy, I was awarded the United States Coast Guard Public Service Commendation, twice, for my forecasting skills during the 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons provided for the USCG Maintenance and Logistics Command, and Atlantic Area Command.
Satellite loop imagery this morning still shows some unsettled weather in the GOMEX, T.D.3E in the EPAC, and some convection over the Isthmus of Panama. The latter, may be the precursor to the Caribbean / GOMEX development, which the global models have been so persistent with. This is one of the few times I’ve seen the global models in good agreement, and being so persistent in run to run over a period of 72-96 hours.
Based on my analysis of the global models this morning, all of the global models are onboard in one way or another, still indicating tropical development to initiate in approximately 5 – 7 days in the extreme W. Caribbean / BOC area. A blend of model timing suggests this will be around Sat. June 17 – Sun. June 18, which works out well in my case, as I’ll have Sun. – Wed. to keep you updated on the situation. It is noted, that the UKMET is finally onboard with development. The GFS and ECMWF have been the most consistent on a run to run basis as far as lowering of MSLP normalized anomalies over the W. Caribbean in about 5 – 6 days, and as far as direction of movement (toward the NNW initially, then turning more WNW and nearing south TX.) The GFS and ECMWF are not too thrilled about strengthening the system much, while the CMC indicates a mid grade T.S. and the NASA GEOS model wants to make a hurricane. In any case, we are looking at some favorable conditions for the remainder of this week, into next week as far as wind shear reducing and upper level winds becoming favorable, the MJO going into phase 1 and remaining through June 19, and favorable upward vertical velocities as indicted by the CHI 200 forecast through 10 days.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES MAPS
CMC GGEM MSLP MAPS
FIM 8 AND FIM 9 MODELS MSLP MAPS
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and TCHP or OHC (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential / Ocean Heat Content), I have to go with a weaker system at the moment, maybe a low end T.S. Albeit the GFS indicates a favorable upper level pattern, still indicating an upper level anti-cyclone developing over the W. Caribbean and then GOMEX in days 5 – 10, TCHP levels really don’t support anything strong. Right now, this is just my educated guess, and I’ll have to see what cards I’m dealt in the next 5 – 7 days before I can “tweak” my forecast.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
CHI 200 VERTICAL VELOCITIES FORECAST
Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps (which really doesn’t mean anything at the present moment, until we see actual development of something with a well defined LLC), I am inclined at the moment, to put stock into the GFS and ECMWF track solution. Is this definite? Not by a long shot…but this is what everything suggests when you put it all together.
So, the bottom line is, to begin focusing our attention toward the W. Caribbean / BOC area this coming weekend.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS