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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Satellite imagery indicates activity has died down within the ITCZ, however some convective areas are noted just west of Africa and over the continent. Nothing really of note closer to home.
Global models over the past few days have been hinting at tropical development anywhere from the extreme W. Caribbean Sea, to the GOMEX, north of the Yucatan peninsula. Based on my analysis this afternoon, all of the global models (GFS, GEFS, CMC GGEM, NAVGEM, ECMWF, FIM 8 and FIM 9), with the exception of the UKEMT are still indicating development IVO the W, Caribbean and GOMEX area. A majority of the modeling indicates if anything is going to come to fruition, it would begin in about 120-144 hours, with lowering MSLP Normalized anomalies, and development of a weak surface low.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY MAPS
Analysis of forecast MSLP maps indicates models are varying on both strength and direction of this supposed development, with the current run (12Z) of the both the ECMWF and GFS indicating a weaker system, possibly tropical depression to weak tropical storm, bring it initially northward, then turning the system west. On this run, it is noted the ECMWF switched from bringing the system further east in the Gulf of Mexico, to turning it westward, which is inline with what the GFS is showing. In fact, the ECMWF at the end of the forecast (240 hours), turns it SW into the BOC. The CMC which has been the most bullish, still insists on bringing it to the W. Florida Panhandle as a mid grade tropical storm. Again, it is a moot point at this time, to try and guess, or even worry WHERE this may track.
Based on analysis of surface wind streamlines, it appears this low may develop from the EPAC monsoon winds coming from the west, and meeting with the easterly trades on our side of the world. A colleague of mine Levi Cowan, for whom I have a great deal of respect, terms this as the EPAC Monsoon Gyre. You can visit Levi’s site at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/.
Based on my analysis of the current run of the wind shear forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF, upper level winds are forecast to be favorable for development beginning OOA Saturday, Jun. 18 (150 hours) through day 10 (240 hours) from 12Z this morning (8:00 a.m. EDT), with the development of an upper level anticyclone. Precipitable Water Totals (PWAT) are forecast to be abundant over the area during the time frame.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
GFS PWAT FORECAST
Just a little tidbit for ya…even if all models show development, there have been past cases where nothing happened! However, given the run to run consistency of the modeling over the past 48-72 hours, and given the premise of a favorable upper level environment, including PWAT values of 2.0″ up to 2.75″, I believe we may see an INVEST area come to fruition IVO the area mentioned, by next weekend. Keep in mind, this is nothing definite, and I will be monitoring the area over the next 4 days for any significant changes to the forecast pattern.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS