TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 07, 2017…4:30 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The low pressure center I’ve been tracking in the GOMEX over the past few days, is just offshore of the Florida Panhandle area, moving eastward.  This can be seen in the current satellite loop imagery:

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR LOOP)

The low is still forecast to exit the FL. peninsula NE of the JAX area, and continue toward the NNE near the U.S. coast.  Models differ in how close this storm will be to the coast.  The closer to the coast, the more impact that will be noticed.  On a general note, areas north of the low center, will experience onshore winds, along with wind driven waves.  This system begins to deepen faster IVO, or just south of the Cape Cod area.  The area from Cape Cod, to the Gulf of Maine, appears to take the brunt of this storm.  Residents along this area should be prepared for possible minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, and some minor beach erosion.  Winds could reach 20-30 knots near the coast, and higher offshore.  For statements and warnings regarding this storm, please find the link for the NWS Warning Display in the Hurricane Hunter graphic box.  I do not anticipate this becoming tropical in nature.

GFS

CMC GGEM

NAM

WAVEWATCH MODEL WIND AND SEA HEIGHT MAPS (STORMSURF) CLICK FOR ANIMATION

You’ve heard me mention just recently, how I revisit wind hear forecasts, and how quickly the pattern can change, WELL, elsewhere in the tropics, the GFS for the past 2 days has been sniffing out something in the Caribbean / GOMEX area.  Upon analysis of the global models, the GFS still indicates this from both the 06Z run, and now the 12Z run from this morning.  Based on my analysis of the global models, the GFS appears to have gotten some support.  The GFS indicates a lowering of MSLP in the W. Caribbean by days 11 and 12 from 12Z this morning, based on the MSLP normalized anomalies map.  The GEFS system also indicates a lowering of MSLP.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY MAPS

GEFS

The ECMWF ENSEMBLES forecast is indicating a lowering of pressure over the area, as heights rise to the NNW.

ECMWF EPS

The CMC GGEM indicates a weak low with one closed isobar to show up over the area by 240 hours out (10 days).  The NAVGEM only goes out to 144 hours, so nothing was indicated.

CMC GGEM

The NASA GEOS is onboard indicating an area of weak low pressure within the same time frame (albeit hard to see).

NASA GEOS

The outlier on this, is the ECMWF operational model, which develops another system in the EPAC where Beatriz developed, and shows slow movement northward.

ECMWF

In my forecast yesterday, this did not seem plausible based on the wind shear forecast that was analyzed.  However, the current wind shear forecast from the 12Z GFS run, indicates a change in the pattern at days 11 and 12 in the forecast period.  At around 240 hours out, the GFS begins to lessen wind shear overt he W. Caribbean, then develops an upper level anticyclone over the W. Caribbean and Yucatan peninsula.  This feature is forecast to move NNW, into the GOMEX by day 12.5 or 300 hours out.  This again, could change over the next few days, however, since we have the majority of the global modeling in fair agreement, I will be monitoring the W. Caribbean next week for any possible mischief.  At the moment, the models seem to indicate possibly, a tropical depression may develop.  At the moment, it is not plausible to even begin thinking of where this “system” may track, as models have nothing to “latch onto”.  I will keep you abreast of any significant changes that may occur over the next 7 – 10 days.

12Z GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Elsewhere, the ITCZ seems to have some life to it, but nothing of any concern.

EUMETSAT IMAGERY

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 07, 2017…4:30 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks for this report, Storm. There’s a whole lot to watch for, and I am glad you are here to make sense of it all. As to my question yesterday, thank you for your answer. However, from a non-Met standpoint, is one system more damaging than the other; or are they both just as damaging, just the winds and rains come in different patterns? I know this is a simplistic question to a complex problem, but my perspective is “How will this type of storm affect an area as opposed to the other type of storm?” During the event or when I walk out the door the next morning, will there be any indication of which type of system it was?

    • In a Baroclinic system (as in an MLC, or Mid Latitude Cyclone) they can produce effects similar to a tropical storm, with almost tropical storm force winds, if not close to hurricane force, as far as a coastal or oceanic storms. Again, max. sustained winds are away from the center, and generally on one side of the system, sometimes both, but in limited bands. A coastal or oceanic storm can also cover more of an area. I remember on one Cutter I was on, we had an oceanic storm move close to us, and it was approximately 1100 miles in diameter

      In a Barotropic storm (i.e. Tropical storm and Hurricane, the winds get stronger as you reach the center, with winds being more evenly distributed as far as “coverage” around the storm. In other words, the sustained winds associated with the rain-bands encompass almost all around the storm. And, we know the “eyewall” is where the strongest, damaging winds lie. Tropical storms and hurricanes are “typically 300-400 miles in diameter, but have been larger, especially in the Pacific. Hurricane winds will produce more structural damage to an area, vice a coastal storm or “Nor’easter” As far as beach flooding and erosion, one can experience the same effect from a weak to mid grade T.S. or a coastal storm. With a hurricane, this danger is much more grave, as when the hurricanes winds get stronger as the center nears, we know it piles up water wand waves, which grow larger due to the slopes of the ocean floor. This is about the most general way I can explain it.

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