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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The low pressure center I’ve been tracking in the GOMEX over the past few days, is just offshore of the Florida Panhandle area, moving eastward. This can be seen in the current satellite loop imagery:
The low is still forecast to exit the FL. peninsula NE of the JAX area, and continue toward the NNE near the U.S. coast. Models differ in how close this storm will be to the coast. The closer to the coast, the more impact that will be noticed. On a general note, areas north of the low center, will experience onshore winds, along with wind driven waves. This system begins to deepen faster IVO, or just south of the Cape Cod area. The area from Cape Cod, to the Gulf of Maine, appears to take the brunt of this storm. Residents along this area should be prepared for possible minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, and some minor beach erosion. Winds could reach 20-30 knots near the coast, and higher offshore. For statements and warnings regarding this storm, please find the link for the NWS Warning Display in the Hurricane Hunter graphic box. I do not anticipate this becoming tropical in nature.
You’ve heard me mention just recently, how I revisit wind hear forecasts, and how quickly the pattern can change, WELL, elsewhere in the tropics, the GFS for the past 2 days has been sniffing out something in the Caribbean / GOMEX area. Upon analysis of the global models, the GFS still indicates this from both the 06Z run, and now the 12Z run from this morning. Based on my analysis of the global models, the GFS appears to have gotten some support. The GFS indicates a lowering of MSLP in the W. Caribbean by days 11 and 12 from 12Z this morning, based on the MSLP normalized anomalies map. The GEFS system also indicates a lowering of MSLP.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY MAPS
The ECMWF ENSEMBLES forecast is indicating a lowering of pressure over the area, as heights rise to the NNW.
The CMC GGEM indicates a weak low with one closed isobar to show up over the area by 240 hours out (10 days). The NAVGEM only goes out to 144 hours, so nothing was indicated.
The NASA GEOS is onboard indicating an area of weak low pressure within the same time frame (albeit hard to see).
The outlier on this, is the ECMWF operational model, which develops another system in the EPAC where Beatriz developed, and shows slow movement northward.
In my forecast yesterday, this did not seem plausible based on the wind shear forecast that was analyzed. However, the current wind shear forecast from the 12Z GFS run, indicates a change in the pattern at days 11 and 12 in the forecast period. At around 240 hours out, the GFS begins to lessen wind shear overt he W. Caribbean, then develops an upper level anticyclone over the W. Caribbean and Yucatan peninsula. This feature is forecast to move NNW, into the GOMEX by day 12.5 or 300 hours out. This again, could change over the next few days, however, since we have the majority of the global modeling in fair agreement, I will be monitoring the W. Caribbean next week for any possible mischief. At the moment, the models seem to indicate possibly, a tropical depression may develop. At the moment, it is not plausible to even begin thinking of where this “system” may track, as models have nothing to “latch onto”. I will keep you abreast of any significant changes that may occur over the next 7 – 10 days.
12Z GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Elsewhere, the ITCZ seems to have some life to it, but nothing of any concern.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS