TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS … ISSUED JUN. 06, 2017 … 2:30 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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The area of broad low pressure left behind by EPAC storm Beatriz, is now located near the coastal area of LA., as seen in satellite loop imagery.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The low is moving toward the east, and should crossover the FL. peninsula within the next 36 hours or so.  This low will continue to bring rain to portions of the Gulf coast, Florida, and the SEUS for the next couple of days, with most likely rain centered over FL. two more days.

Based on analysis of current model runs, the low should emerge into the Atlantic off the NE coast of Florida, and continue off to the ENE to NE. Models indicate the low will deepen, and could become a coastal storm.  The GFS is farthest east, with the CMC GGEM following the ECMWF a little closer to the coast, and the NAM right along the coast.  Given the NAM is the North American Mesoscale model focusing more on atmospheric conditions of North America, I have to go with a low that may be closer to the coast, however out of respect for the ECMWF, I am choosing a blend of both of the models.  Regardless, this system could pose some problem for residents along the NJ coast, but the brunt appears to affect the New England coastline.  A combination of wind and waves could provide some minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, as well as some beach erosion along north facing beaches.  Residents should monitor their local NWS regarding this system.  I do not see this becoming tropical, and it should remain baroclinic.

GFS

CMC GGEM

NAM

WAVEWATCH WIND AND SEA HEIGHT FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)

Elsewhere, the tropics remain quiet this afternoon.

RAMSDIS GOES EAST

EUMETSAT IMAGERY

Analysis of the recent global models run doesn’t indicate anything to be concerned over for the next 7 – 10 days.  It is noted that a weak signal of the MJO may enter briefly into phase 1 within the next 6 – 10 days, and the GFS is indicating a significant lowering of pressures in the W. Caribbean by day 11 and 12, based on the GFS normalized MSLP anomaly map. However, based on the current wind shear forecast, I’m not looking for any development over that time frame.  I will continue to monitor the area however, for any significant changes either way.

MJO FORECAST PRODUCTS

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST

Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic has fallen below climatology, and can most likely be attributed to a combination of the 1026 – 1027 mb high sitting over the Azores, and current SAL noted in satellite imagery.  Note the Stratocumulus deck near Africa over the Atlantic, which indicates a stable atmosphere.

SAL IMAGERY

TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY

For giggles and grins, I thought I’d post the current rainfall forecast for Africa for the next 7 – 10 days, just for something different to look at.

GFS ACCUMULATED AFRICAN RAINFALL DAYS 7 AND 10

The BOM updated their ENSO site, and the forecast is for Nino region 3.4 to remain pretty much neutral during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

BOM NINO 3.4 PLUMES

The CFSv2 model indicates the same, and the SST Anomaly maps from the May update, still indicate an El Nino Modoki setup during the busy portion of the season:

CFSv2 NINO PLUMES REGION 3.4

CFSV2 SST ANOMALIES


Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS … ISSUED JUN. 06, 2017 … 2:30 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. It’s interesting to watch how weather from the near-equatorial Eastern Pacific travels to the Northwestern Atlantic and all the communities it affects. Okay, now for the dumb question. What is the difference at the point of impact, say my house, between a baroclinic storm and a tropical storm? I know they are different storms with different properties from a meteorological point, but what situational hazards are there from one as opposed to the other? Sorry for the grammar school question, but I don’t know.

    • A Barotropic system gets it’s strength and properties from equal temperatures and humidity across the system and surrounding area pretty much. A Baroclinic storm works on differences in temperature and pressure gradients. A Barotropic system has maximum sustained winds closer to the center (eyewall in the case of a hurricane), and a Baroclinic storm has max winds removed away from the center, usually in a narrow band.

      http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/49/

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