Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites. The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
Good day everyone!
The area of broad low pressure left behind by EPAC storm Beatriz, is now located near the coastal area of LA., as seen in satellite loop imagery.
The low is moving toward the east, and should crossover the FL. peninsula within the next 36 hours or so. This low will continue to bring rain to portions of the Gulf coast, Florida, and the SEUS for the next couple of days, with most likely rain centered over FL. two more days.
Based on analysis of current model runs, the low should emerge into the Atlantic off the NE coast of Florida, and continue off to the ENE to NE. Models indicate the low will deepen, and could become a coastal storm. The GFS is farthest east, with the CMC GGEM following the ECMWF a little closer to the coast, and the NAM right along the coast. Given the NAM is the North American Mesoscale model focusing more on atmospheric conditions of North America, I have to go with a low that may be closer to the coast, however out of respect for the ECMWF, I am choosing a blend of both of the models. Regardless, this system could pose some problem for residents along the NJ coast, but the brunt appears to affect the New England coastline. A combination of wind and waves could provide some minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide, as well as some beach erosion along north facing beaches. Residents should monitor their local NWS regarding this system. I do not see this becoming tropical, and it should remain baroclinic.
Elsewhere, the tropics remain quiet this afternoon.
Analysis of the recent global models run doesn’t indicate anything to be concerned over for the next 7 – 10 days. It is noted that a weak signal of the MJO may enter briefly into phase 1 within the next 6 – 10 days, and the GFS is indicating a significant lowering of pressures in the W. Caribbean by day 11 and 12, based on the GFS normalized MSLP anomaly map. However, based on the current wind shear forecast, I’m not looking for any development over that time frame. I will continue to monitor the area however, for any significant changes either way.
MJO FORECAST PRODUCTS
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic has fallen below climatology, and can most likely be attributed to a combination of the 1026 – 1027 mb high sitting over the Azores, and current SAL noted in satellite imagery. Note the Stratocumulus deck near Africa over the Atlantic, which indicates a stable atmosphere.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
For giggles and grins, I thought I’d post the current rainfall forecast for Africa for the next 7 – 10 days, just for something different to look at.
GFS ACCUMULATED AFRICAN RAINFALL DAYS 7 AND 10
The BOM updated their ENSO site, and the forecast is for Nino region 3.4 to remain pretty much neutral during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
BOM NINO 3.4 PLUMES
The CFSv2 model indicates the same, and the SST Anomaly maps from the May update, still indicate an El Nino Modoki setup during the busy portion of the season:
CFSv2 NINO PLUMES REGION 3.4
CFSV2 SST ANOMALIES
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS