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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
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Satellite loop imagery still indicates a broad, but ill defined surface low, which is associated with a trof of lower pressure over the southern GOMEX.
Based on current wind shear analysis from CIMSS, and forecast wind shear over the next 7 days, upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable, and I do not expect development of this area. The NHC has dropped the area from the Tropical Weather Outlook.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
GFS WIND SHEAR 168 HOURS
This surface low has been nearly stationary over the past few days, however recent satellite loop imagery indicates a slow motion toward the east. Having analyzed the current run of the forecast steering layers maps, more of a NE motion should begin within the next 18-24 hours. This should bring the main portion of the low over the FL. Panhandle area in about 36-48 hours. Analysis of the global models indicates the GFS and ECMWF both have the same solution, with only very minor differences in exact track. Given the current and forecast shear pattern, moisture will continue to be transported out of the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Florida Peninsula during the next 48 hours. The following are the projected total rainfall accumulation maps from the WPC for days 5 through 7.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
WPC 5 AND 7 DAY QPF FORECAST EXPLANATION:
The 5-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) products are created by adding WPC’s 6-hour QPFs for Days 1-3 (a total of 12 6-hour periods) to a 48-hour forecast for Days 4-5 prepared by our medium-range forecasters. For the 7-Day QPF, we add to the 5-day product a 48-hour forecast for Days 6-7, which is also prepared by our medium-range forecasters. Both forecasts are created twice per day, once at 09Z and again at 21Z.
Forecasts are valid from the beginning of Day 1 through the end of Day 5 (or 7), with the 21Z issuance offset by 12 hours. For example, a forecast prepared at 12Z September 2, 2012, would be valid for the 120-hour period from 12Z September 2, 2012, through 12Z September 7, 2012. The Day 1-5 forecast prepared at 21Z September 2, 2012, would be valid from 00Z September 3, 2012, through 00Z September 8, 2012. For the Day 1-7 QPF, a forecast prepared at 12Z September 2, 2012, would be valid for the 168-hour period from 12Z September 2, 2012, through 12Z September 9, 2012. The forecast created at 21Z would be valid from 00Z September 3, 2012 through 00Z September 10, 2012.
Though I am not anticipating development of this area, it seems the GFS, ECMWF and the NAM models are picking up on the energy from it, as it moves into the Atlantic, with the GFS and NAM developing a coastal storm, and the ECMWF forecasting this to be further offshore. Keep in mind, the NAM is a Mesoscale model. I won’t be available for an update on this, as I work when this supposedly ramps up. Just keep a heads up in that a coastal situation could develop. I’ll be taking another look at this on Wed., to see if it is in fact coming to fruition.
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates the ECMWF showing a trof split, from the deep trof that will lift the GOMEX disturbance out, and leaves a piece of energy behind in the GOMEX. None of the global models indicate any tropical development over the next 7 – 10 days, except the CMC GGEM, which shows an area of low pressure developing along the Yucatan coastline in about 7 days, then entering the GOMEX and becoming a Tropical Storm that takes aim at the Florida Panhandle by day 9 from 00Z yesterday evening. Given the wind shear forecast, and the CMC’s history of spurious cyclones, I have to throw out this solution, unless there is an abrupt change in the wind shear forecast. However, anytime there is a trof split that occurs with the GOMEX/Caribbean areas involved, it’s always a good idea to monitor the situation.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS