TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK … GOMEX DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS … ISSUED JUN. 04, 2017… 3:35 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Satellite imagery indicates thunderstorm activity associated with the area of weak low pressure in the GOMEX has diminished, however the low seems to have a better defined circulation.  The NHC in Miami, has not changed the probability for cyclone formation, which remains at a LOW (0%) probability during the next 5 days.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGES FOR LOOP)

Based on analysis of current steering, steering currents are weak, and a drift to the north seems to be noted.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, this low should continue to drift northward during the next 24 hours, then begin to move more toward the NNE then NE during the next 48-60 hours.

CIMSS CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear maps, and water vapor loop imagery, the GFS is calling for wind shear to remain at unfavorable levels during the next 5 days, although shear does diminish somewhat.  Water Vapor imagery indicates dry air moving into the GOMEX from the west.  The low is being affected by this drier air, in that convection that is associated with it, has been collapsing, as noted by outflow boundaries in the above RAMSDIS VIS/IR2 satellite loop channel.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST MAPS

RAMSDIS WATER VAPOR LOOP

Based on these factors, I am not forecasting any tropical development of this low.  Analysis of the global models however, suggests the low does close off with one isobar, remaining very weak at around 1008-1004 mb range.  I cannot totally rule this out, however this process would most likely be baroclinic in nature.

Global models do agree, (with the GFS and ECMWF in uncanny agreement in track), with the continued brief northward motion, with a track toward the NE to ENE later in the period.  Models agree with bringing this weather close to the Gulf Coast states, but moving it inland near the Florida Panhandle in about 54-60 hours.  Given the shear conditions and dry air t the west, this will be an east weighted system.  I am not looking for any strong wind with the low (possibly 20-25 mph maximum and mostly in gusts), with rainfall being the primary factor.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY

GFS PRECIPITATION/MSLP

CMC GGEM

NAM REGIONAL MODEL

The following is rainfall projections for the next 5-7 days from the WPC and the GFS global model:

WPC 5 AND 7 DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL PROJECTIONS (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

GFS 5 AND 7 DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL

I will continue to monitor this area over the next few days for any significant changes in the shear pattern, and should have another update sometime tomorrow.

I thought I would post the following, just for something different to look at.  The GFS is trying to develop something in the W. Caribbean near the Yucatan channel by 14-16 days in the forecast period, and indicates a favorable environment showing an upper level anticyclone over the area.  I am not really concerned about this, that far out in time, as accuracy deteriorates more after 72-96 hours.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES 348 AND 384 HOURS

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 384 HOURS (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK … GOMEX DISTURBANCE FORECAST SYNOPSIS … ISSUED JUN. 04, 2017… 3:35 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Wow, some of those rain amounts in florida are quite high in the next week.

  2. Beachbums of Port Aransas says:

    Thanks Storm
    We’ll be vigilant for the coming months in S. Texas.

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