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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
Satellite imagery indicates thunderstorm activity associated with the area of weak low pressure in the GOMEX has diminished, however the low seems to have a better defined circulation. The NHC in Miami, has not changed the probability for cyclone formation, which remains at a LOW (0%) probability during the next 5 days.
Based on analysis of current steering, steering currents are weak, and a drift to the north seems to be noted. Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, this low should continue to drift northward during the next 24 hours, then begin to move more toward the NNE then NE during the next 48-60 hours.
Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear maps, and water vapor loop imagery, the GFS is calling for wind shear to remain at unfavorable levels during the next 5 days, although shear does diminish somewhat. Water Vapor imagery indicates dry air moving into the GOMEX from the west. The low is being affected by this drier air, in that convection that is associated with it, has been collapsing, as noted by outflow boundaries in the above RAMSDIS VIS/IR2 satellite loop channel.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST MAPS
Based on these factors, I am not forecasting any tropical development of this low. Analysis of the global models however, suggests the low does close off with one isobar, remaining very weak at around 1008-1004 mb range. I cannot totally rule this out, however this process would most likely be baroclinic in nature.
Global models do agree, (with the GFS and ECMWF in uncanny agreement in track), with the continued brief northward motion, with a track toward the NE to ENE later in the period. Models agree with bringing this weather close to the Gulf Coast states, but moving it inland near the Florida Panhandle in about 54-60 hours. Given the shear conditions and dry air t the west, this will be an east weighted system. I am not looking for any strong wind with the low (possibly 20-25 mph maximum and mostly in gusts), with rainfall being the primary factor.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY
NAM REGIONAL MODEL
The following is rainfall projections for the next 5-7 days from the WPC and the GFS global model:
GFS 5 AND 7 DAY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL
I will continue to monitor this area over the next few days for any significant changes in the shear pattern, and should have another update sometime tomorrow.
I thought I would post the following, just for something different to look at. The GFS is trying to develop something in the W. Caribbean near the Yucatan channel by 14-16 days in the forecast period, and indicates a favorable environment showing an upper level anticyclone over the area. I am not really concerned about this, that far out in time, as accuracy deteriorates more after 72-96 hours.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES 348 AND 384 HOURS
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS