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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
An area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnant of the Pacific storm, Beatriz, is located in the southern GOMEX/BOC area. A weak, and broad area of low pressure is noted in satellite loop imagery. This low currently remains not organized, due to high levels of wind shear, which can be seen shearing clouds and convection off to the east.. Analysis of the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain unfavorable for development during the next 5-7 days.
NHC has designated a 0% probability of development during the next 5 days:
Based on analysis of the global models, the CMC is the only model indicating that this becomes organized, becoming a sub-tropical depression as it nears the Florida coast in about 3 days. The ECMWF Cyclogenesis probability is at 50-60% of a depression forming over the Gulf of Mexico, and the NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis modeling indicates an 80 – 90% probability during the next 48 hours.
NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS MODELING
Based on the current and forecast wind shear maps, I am not inclined at the moment to agree with the model probabilities as far as tropical cyclone development. IF this low were to become organized, it would most likely be sub-tropical, given the semi-divergent flow aloft, and given the high shear, creating baroclinic forcing.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
As previously stated, based on the unfavorable parameters, I am not looking for anything organized out of this disturbance.
Analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps indicates an initial slow, northward drift of the low, and at about 48 hours from 12Z this morning, this are should begin moving toward the NNE, then NE toward the Florida peninsula, bringing the heaviest precipitation to Florida, and over the SEUS, possibly enhancing precipitation probabilities along the lower Gulf Coast. Models are suggesting the low is to merge with a trof off the east coast in a few days, and suggest this low could come together as a storm offshore, as it races ENE.
The following maps indicate forecast total rainfall accumulation amounts for the next 5 – 7 days.
WPC QPF TOTALS DAYS 5 AND 7
F5 DATA GFS DAY 7
I will continue to monitor this area over the next few days for any significant changes in the shear pattern, and should have another update sometime tomorrow.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS