SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED SAT., JUN. 03, 2017… 6:20 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

An area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnant of the Pacific storm, Beatriz, is located in the southern GOMEX/BOC area.  A weak, and broad area of low pressure is noted in satellite loop imagery.  This low currently remains not organized, due to high levels of wind shear, which can be seen shearing clouds and convection off to the east..  Analysis of the current GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain unfavorable for development during the next 5-7 days.

NHC has designated a 0% probability of development during the next 5 days:

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGES FOR LOOP)

Based on analysis of the global models, the CMC is the only model indicating that this becomes organized, becoming a sub-tropical depression as it nears the Florida coast in about 3 days.  The ECMWF Cyclogenesis probability is at 50-60% of a depression forming over the Gulf of Mexico, and the NCEP EMC Cyclogenesis modeling indicates an 80 – 90% probability during the next 48 hours.

CMC GGEM

NCEP / EMC CYCLOGENESIS MODELING

Based on the current and forecast wind shear maps, I am not inclined at the moment to agree with the model probabilities as far as tropical cyclone development.  IF this low were to become organized, it would most likely be sub-tropical, given the semi-divergent flow aloft, and given the high shear, creating baroclinic forcing.

CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR MAP

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

As previously stated, based on the unfavorable parameters, I am not looking for anything organized out of this disturbance.

Analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps indicates an initial slow, northward drift of the low, and at about 48 hours from 12Z this morning, this are should begin moving toward the NNE, then NE toward the Florida peninsula, bringing the heaviest precipitation to Florida, and over the SEUS, possibly enhancing precipitation probabilities along the lower Gulf Coast.  Models are suggesting the low is to merge with a trof off the east coast in a few days, and suggest this low could come together as a storm offshore, as it races ENE.

CMC GGEM

GFS

The following maps indicate forecast total rainfall accumulation amounts for the next 5 – 7 days.

WPC QPF TOTALS DAYS 5 AND 7

GFS TOTALS

F5 DATA GFS DAY 7

I will continue to monitor this area over the next few days for any significant changes in the shear pattern, and should have another update sometime tomorrow.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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