TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS … ISSUED MAY 31, 2017… 3:20 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, which are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding sites.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts

DONATIONS NEEDED

Good day everyone!

The Hurricane Season officially begins TOMORROW!  PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.

Tomorrow officially kicks off the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  I will not be posting tomorrow, as I work Thu., Fri. and Sat., so  am posting this now.

Earlier in the year, climate models were pointing toward a moderate El Nino event during the hurricane season.  As we have gotten into the period where climate model forecasts regarding ENSO predictions tend to be more accurate, the majority of the models tend to agree for neutral with slightly warm biased conditions in the NINO 3.4 region.  Again, after analysis of SST anomaly maps from various climate models, and Nino plumes, and comparison of some past SST anomaly maps, the information at hand indicates we should experience a El Nino Modoki setup.

This type of El Nino setup, does not tend to produce a negative impact on the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  One of the more noted Modoki years was 2004, in which we experienced a total of 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (15-9-6).  Depending on which average you use, and average season consists of 12-6-3 (latest 30 year average), or 10-6-2 (long term average of 100+ years).

Based on ALL of the analysis and re-analysis I performed over the last 2 weeks, my prediction for the 2017 hurricane season is as follows:

Named Storms: 12-15
Hurricanes: 6-7
Maj. Hurricanes: 3-4

These totals are based on comparison of previous Modoki years, trend and values from the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index), SST anomaly forecasts compared to previous Modoki years, and the combined average of the chosen analog years.

With that being said, the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are tranquil at the moment.  Satellite loop imagery does indicate some flareup of shower and thunderstorm activity in the GOMEX.  This shower activity is being produced from a combination of an upper level, semi-divergent pattern, and enhancement from the SSE flow coming across the Yucatan from Tropical Depression TWO-E in the EPAC.

NOAA WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE FOR LOOP)

Based on the NHC advisory discussion on TD 02E, the official forecast calls for the depression to remain in the EPAC, but come very close to, or on the Mexican shoreline. 

From the NHC forecast discussion:

The initial motion is 035/3. A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so. After
that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance. The
GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over
southeastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the
system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds
to the north. The latter part of the track forecast somewhat
splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the
cyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of
Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.

Analysis of track guidance models tends to indicate this, with some of the guidance still wanting to show a crossover into the GOMEX.  Based on the discussion where the NHC mentions a weak mid level ridge should build north of the area after about 48 hours, which is backed up now by some of the forecast steering layers maps, the depression should follow the forecast path.  Now, I know the question everyone has…can this still crossover.  The answer is…it IS possible to some extent, however this will all depend on whether the models are correct in that ridge materializing, when it builds north of the area, and the strength of the ridging.  I am confident at the moment in the NHC forecast, however I WILL be monitoring the progress of that depression, given that we have all seen how quick conditions can change.  In the event it does crossover, chances for any regeneration would be slim, given the wind shear forecast for the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX).

12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK TO ENLARGE GRAPHIC)

Based on my analysis of the 12Z run of the global models, the GFS and ECMWF models do indicate a moderate lowering of pressures in the GOMEX in about 5-6 days.  It is noted, that the GFS and ECMWF were displaying almost the exact same graphic.  The CMC (Constantly Making Cyclones) is the only global model indicating and organized low pressure system, a TD if you will, at 995 mb, near the Florida Panhandle at 144 hours out.  None of the other global models indicate anything organized over the next 5-7 days.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES


CMC MSLP 144 HOURS

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS, I do not anticipate any organized system in the GOMEX, unless the shear pattern takes an abrupt change.

GFS CURRENT WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Having mulled over this, my thinking is, a piece of energy from the PAC system may get pulled into the GOMEX, and there could be the possibility for weak low pressure to develop, and make its way NE to ENE, providing rainfall from LA to FL.

Other than that, the next period in which conditions appear favorable is around 144 hours from 12Z this morning, or 6 days out, over the W. Caribbean area.  The GFS indicates wind shear will diminish over the W. Caribbean, and the CHI 200mb Vertical Velocity forecast indicates strong divergence aloft, with strong upward vertical velocities.  Strong upward vertical velocities indicate divergence aloft, which in turn should create convergence at the surface, which can lead to lowering surface pressures.  Given that, I will be focusing on that area when the time arises.

GFS GLOBAL WIND SHEAR MAPS

GFS CHI 200 VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS … ISSUED MAY 31, 2017… 3:20 P.M. EDT

  1. greg goodman says:

    thankyou mr storm I am with dellamom am ready for the hurricane season.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, for all the hard work you put into your reports and your ability to make them understandable to non-Mets. I’m as ready for the season as I can be.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s