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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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Good day everyone!
The Hurricane Season officially begins June 01, 2017. PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.
An area of disturbed weather is still located over the BOC, and is associated with a surface trof of low pressure. Convection has pretty much dissipated over the past 24 hours, and upper level winds are not conducive for development. Rotation is still noted in the loop imagery, and although wind shear is forecast to remain and unfavorable levels, I will continue to monitor this area.
Based on analysis of the global models this afternoon, 12Z run, the GFS and ECMWF still indicate some lowering of MSLP Normalized pressure anomalies over the GOMEX, at different locations and at different times out in the forecast period. The GFS at around 96-120 hours shows lowering of pressures in the west central GOMEX, while the ECMWF indicates lowering of the pressure anomalies near the west coast of Florida, at 240 hours, or day 10. It is noted that the models keep initializing, then dropping this entity. In other words, there really hasn’t been any run to run model consistency regarding this. This makes it a little difficult to forecast actual development, or non development. However, based on satellite loop imagery, the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast, and lack of any organized systems showing up in the 1000 – 500 mb MSLP maps, I do not believe at the moment, the area of disturbed weather in the BOC will develop. One interesting feature, is that the ECMWF develops a sub-tropical system east of the U.S. by day 10.
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES 96, 120 AND 150 HOURS
GFS MSLP MAP 96 HOURS
CMC MSLP MAP 10 DAY
ECMWF 216 AND 240 HOUR MAPS
Given that the models have been flip flopping on solutions, and have not been very consistent, I am not totally sold on that scenario right now, either.
The NCEP / EMC Cyclogenesis modeling page is still wanting to show cyclogenesis over the BOC in 48-120 hours out, with a 50-60% probability.
NCEP / EMC MULTI MODEL AND NCEP ENSEMBLE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST
The GFS indicates fairly high wind shear over most of the GOMEX up to 7-10 days out, with the only favorable area being in the extreme southern BOC.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Based on my analysis of forecast steering levels maps, the system in the EPAC cannot be totally ruled out yet, as a remnant crossover, albeit both the ECMWF and GFS keep that system moving more on a NNW course and eventually dissipating.
I am really beginning to believe that the EPAC system is close enough and large enough, that the models are having a problem handling the heat energy from the system, and are wanting to spin up a spurious cyclone over the GOMEX to dissipate the heat. This is the only thing that comes to mind right now, based on analysis of everything, with the global models lacking anything organized.
Right now, upward motion, or lift is almost null over the GOMEX, however the CHI 200 forecast indicates a strong upward vertical velocity pulse in about 7-10 days, so I’ll be looking closer over the area at that time.
GFS CHI 200 VERTICAL VELOCITIES FORECAST
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS