TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2017…6:00 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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Good day everyone!

The Hurricane Season officially begins June 01, 2017.  PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.

An area of disturbed weather is still located over the BOC, and is associated with a surface trof of low pressure.  Convection has pretty much dissipated over the past 24 hours, and upper level winds are not conducive for development.  Rotation is still noted in the loop imagery, and although wind shear is forecast to remain and unfavorable levels, I will continue to monitor this area.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (click images for loop)

Based on analysis of the global models this afternoon, 12Z run, the GFS and ECMWF still indicate some lowering of MSLP Normalized pressure anomalies over the GOMEX, at different locations and at different times out in the forecast period.  The GFS at around 96-120 hours shows lowering of pressures in the west central GOMEX, while the ECMWF indicates lowering of the pressure anomalies near the west coast of Florida, at 240 hours, or day 10.  It is noted that the models keep initializing, then dropping this entity.  In other words, there really hasn’t been any run to run model consistency regarding this.  This makes it a little difficult to forecast actual development, or non development.  However, based on satellite loop imagery, the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast, and lack of any organized systems showing up in the 1000 – 500 mb MSLP maps, I do not believe at the moment, the area of disturbed weather in the BOC will develop.  One interesting feature, is that the ECMWF develops a sub-tropical system east of the U.S. by day 10.

GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES 96, 120 AND 150 HOURS

GFS MSLP MAP 96 HOURS

CMC MSLP MAP 10 DAY

ECMWF 216 AND 240 HOUR MAPS

Given that the models have been flip flopping on solutions, and have not been very consistent,  I am not totally sold on that scenario right now, either.

The NCEP / EMC Cyclogenesis modeling page is still wanting to show cyclogenesis over the BOC in 48-120 hours out, with a 50-60% probability.

NCEP / EMC MULTI MODEL AND NCEP ENSEMBLE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST

The GFS indicates fairly high wind shear over most of the GOMEX up to 7-10 days out, with the only favorable area being in the extreme southern BOC.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on my analysis of forecast steering levels maps, the system in the EPAC cannot be totally ruled out  yet, as a remnant crossover, albeit both the ECMWF and GFS keep that system moving more on a NNW course and eventually dissipating.

I am really beginning to believe that the EPAC system is close enough and large enough, that the models are having a problem handling the heat energy from the system, and are wanting to spin up a spurious cyclone over the GOMEX to dissipate the heat.  This is the only thing that comes to mind right now, based on analysis of everything, with the global models lacking anything organized.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP EPAC

Right now, upward motion, or lift is almost null over the GOMEX, however the CHI 200 forecast indicates a strong upward vertical velocity pulse in about 7-10 days, so I’ll be looking closer over the area at that time.

GFS CHI 200 VERTICAL VELOCITIES FORECAST

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2017…6:00 P.M. EDT

  1. Stephen Inglese says:

    Greetings Storm..

    Hope and trust all is well… I would like to make a donation but don’t see where on the right hand side of the screen the “donate” button.. kindly provide some additional direction.

    Be well,

    Stephen W Inglese

    Founder / CEO

    Quality Solutions and Support, LLC

    Florida – USA

    US Agent

    TSgt – USAF Retired

    C-561-251-0876

    Email – *swi@qss-llc.com*

    *www.qss-llc.com*

    *From:* WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER [mailto:comment-reply@wordpress.com] *Sent:* Tuesday, May 30, 2017 17:55 PM *To:* swiqss1@gmail.com *Subject:* [New post] TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2017…6:00 P.M. EDT

    palmharborforecastcenter posted: “Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. (T. F.”

    • Thank you, Stephen. On the right side of my page, under ARCHIVES…The statement starts out “your donation helps. There should be a yellow paypal button that says donate.

    • Beachbums of Port Aransas says:

      I seem to forget just when I make a donation, so I make one whenever I feel in the mood. Maybe this is the time, the Atlantic season starts day after tomorrow. Thanks Storm, I appreciate your efforts and get a little excited when you mention a “possible” crossover from the E. Pacific area. Looks like things are getting started there now. I will “Dump” this home three weeks hence and move 1 mile north into a Condo that I have owned for the last 27 years (but never spent even 1 night there). It may seem foolish, but I will not have to worry about hurricanes from now on. I can just pack up and move out till things settle down and let others worry about storms! Insurance may even be less !!

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