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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)
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I want to take a moment to reflect during this holiday, on my fallen sisters and brothers who made the ultimate sacrifice for freedom. Remembering them on Memorial Day.
HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!
Good day everyone!
The Hurricane Season officially begins June 01, 2017. PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.
The disturbance in the EPAC I mentioned yesterday continues to become organized and has been designated 91E, and the NHC has increased the probability of cyclone development to 50% over the next 5 days. The only reason this is being included in the synopsis, is that there could be slim possibility of a remnant crossover.
After the models pretty much not having an interest in development in the GOMEX in late afternoon runs, analysis of the models once again indicates a possible weak area of low pressure developing in the western/central GOMEX in 5-7 days, or in the Bay of Campeche (BOC). Models are currently showing discrepancies as to where a possible weak development may occur. The GFS initializes lowering of normalized MSLP anomalies in the BOC, but quickly shifts the lowering of pressure to near the Gulf Coast states, and eventually toward Florida. The ECMWF indicates a weak development in the extreme W. GOMEX, initializing just of the TX coast, and moving the low toward the Florida Peninsula. Analysis of the remaining global models suggests we should watch around the BOC area. Models indicating the BOC, had suggested the remnants of now INVEST 91E in the EPAC to crossover into the BOC, and develop into a weak low. I know this is confusing, and believe me, I’m kind of scratching my head myself, as both the GFS and ECMWF in analysis this morning, indicate wind shear will be over the GOMEX during the next 5 – 10 days.
Well, here’s my take on the scenario…the models could be having issues in that there are 2 areas ongoing at the moment. Based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, here is an area that has just developed some limited convective activity, and definite counterclockwise rotation near the Mexican coast at approximately 23.0N;97.0W. This is pretty much the location that some of the modeling is indicating, as well as the NCEP / EMC Cyclogenesis page for time period 48-120 hours.
GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR LOOP)
Now, on the other hand, the ECMWF solution would tend to point toward the large MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex)…or the extremely large thunderstorm area over TX, moving into the GOMEX, and developing into the weak low pressure area.
The ONLY problem I have with both scenarios, is like I previously mentioned…upper level winds are forecast to be non conducive for any development during the next 5 – 10 days.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Based on my analyses, the best solution I can deduce is, to monitor this situation closely for any significant changes to the subsequent model runs, and upper level pattern. Right now, with the shear forecast, all I could see if development did occur, would be some weak, sub-tropical system, given the fact the wind shear would tend to maintain a possible system by baroclinic forcing, vice true tropical processes.
I will continue to monitor the situation, but will only be able to update through Wednesday, as I work Thu-Sat.
On a side note, the CFSv2 climate model updated once again…today in fact, and suggests even more that an El Nino Modoki setup to take shape, and wind shear values to be below average or climatology for the season.
CFSv2 SST ANOMALIES
CFSv2 u200 – u850 WIND VELOCITY ANOMALIES or WIND SHEAR
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7-10 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS