TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX SYSTEM?…ISSUED MAY 29, 2017…3:20 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh III)

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I want to take a moment to reflect during this holiday, on my fallen sisters and brothers who made the ultimate sacrifice for freedom.  Remembering them on Memorial Day.

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!

Good day everyone!

The Hurricane Season officially begins June 01, 2017.  PLEASE, take this time to review your hurricane preparedness and evacuation plans.

The disturbance in the EPAC I mentioned yesterday continues to become organized and has been designated 91E, and the NHC has increased the probability of cyclone development to 50% over the next 5 days.  The only reason this is being included in the synopsis, is that there could be slim possibility of a remnant crossover.

NHC 5 DAY EPAC GRAPHICAL TWO (LINKED)

After the models pretty much not having an interest in development in the GOMEX in late afternoon runs, analysis of the models once again indicates a possible weak area of low pressure developing in the western/central GOMEX in 5-7 days, or in the Bay of Campeche (BOC).  Models are currently showing discrepancies as to where a possible weak development may occur.  The GFS initializes lowering of normalized MSLP anomalies in the BOC, but quickly shifts the lowering of pressure to near the Gulf Coast states, and eventually toward Florida.  The ECMWF indicates a weak development in the extreme W. GOMEX, initializing just of the TX coast, and moving the low toward the Florida Peninsula.  Analysis of the remaining global models suggests we should watch around the BOC area.  Models indicating the BOC, had suggested the remnants of now INVEST 91E in the EPAC to crossover into the BOC, and develop into a weak low.  I know this is confusing, and believe me, I’m kind of scratching my head myself, as both the GFS and ECMWF in analysis this morning, indicate wind shear will be over the GOMEX during the next 5 – 10 days.

GFS


ECMWF

CMC GGEM

Well, here’s my take on the scenario…the models could be having issues in that there are 2 areas ongoing at the moment.  Based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, here is an area that has just developed some limited convective activity, and definite counterclockwise rotation near the Mexican coast at approximately 23.0N;97.0W.  This is pretty much the location that some of the modeling is indicating, as well as the NCEP / EMC Cyclogenesis page for time period 48-120 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK FOR LOOP)




Now, on the other hand, the ECMWF solution would tend to point toward the large MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex)…or the extremely large thunderstorm area over TX, moving into the GOMEX, and developing into the weak low pressure area.

The ONLY problem I have with both scenarios, is like I previously mentioned…upper level winds are forecast to be non conducive for any development during the next 5 – 10 days.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


Based on my analyses, the best solution I can deduce is, to monitor this situation closely for any significant changes to the subsequent model runs, and upper level pattern.  Right now, with the shear forecast, all I could see if development did occur, would be some weak, sub-tropical system, given the fact the wind shear would tend to maintain a possible system by baroclinic forcing, vice true tropical processes.

I will continue to monitor the situation, but will only be able to update through Wednesday, as I work Thu-Sat.

On a side note, the CFSv2 climate model updated once again…today in fact, and suggests even more that an El Nino Modoki setup to take shape, and wind shear values to be below average or climatology for the season.

CFSv2 SST ANOMALIES

CFSv2 u200 – u850 WIND VELOCITY ANOMALIES or WIND SHEAR

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected  during the next 7-10 days.

Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX SYSTEM?…ISSUED MAY 29, 2017…3:20 P.M. EDT

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you to all who have served and are serving, and to the families left waiting for their return. And thank you Storm for you honest and thorough reports and explanations.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, and a thank you for your service in the Military!

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